“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." - Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
“Top Republicans on Capitol Hill, including leaders of the House and the Senate, are pushing back against President Donald Trump on Greenland, saying it would be inappropriate for the United States to use military force to take over the Arctic island.” Story at...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/republican-leaders-push-back-trump-openness-military-greenland-rcna252814
My cmt: Inappropriate?!! It would be an outrageous, criminal, impeachable offense. Further, The US already has extensive access to Greenland.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/01/07/world/europe/trump-greenland-denmark-us-defense-pact.html
“Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya and his team attended Nvidia’s (NVDA) CES 2026 keynote and financial analyst Q&A session on January 5 …The team said Nvidia’s continued dominance in AI compute, networking system, and ecosystem is trading at just approximately 19 multiple price to earnings ratio, or in line with the broader S&P 500 index, despite its superior, greater-than-35% EPS CAGR and upwards of 40% free cash flow.
Arya reiterated a buy rating and the target price of $275, based on 28 multiple his estimate for price-to-earnings ratio…” Story at...
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/bank-of-america-resets-nvidia-stock-forecast-after-key-event
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose moderately last week, suggesting that layoffs were relatively low at the end of 2025, though demand for labor remained sluggish. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 208,000 for the week ended December 27…” Story at…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-134052278.html
“U.S. worker productivity grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter as businesses invested heavily in artificial intelligence, depressing labor costs. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, accelerated at a 4.9% annualized rate, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Thursday.” Story at…
https://www.reuters.com/business/us-third-quarter-productivity-rises-fastest-pace-two-years-2026-01-08/
-Thursday the S&P 500 was little changed at 6921.
-VIX rose about 0.5% to 15.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.169% (compared to about this time prior market day).
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026.
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +8 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
I’m bullish and fully invested.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
