ISM Non-Manufacturing … ADP Employment … JOLTS Job Openings … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“A federal judge Tuesday ordered Trump ally Lindsey Halligan to explain why she continues to call herself the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia even though another judge determined in November that she had been unlawfully appointed to the position. U.S. District Judge David Novak of Richmond issued a three-page order demanding to know why Halligan is still serving in the post. Halligan, who unsuccessfully prosecuted former FBI Direct James Comey and New York Attorney General Letitia James, is also referred to as U.S. attorney by the Justice Department in official documents.” Story at…
Judge orders Lindsey Halligan to explain why she's still serving as US attorney after previous ruling against her
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in December, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 54.4 percent, finishing 2025 on a positive note with its 10th month in expansion territory — and its highest reading — of the year.” Story at…
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-pmi-reports/services/december/
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (PR Newswire)
“Private sector employment increased by 41,000 jobs in December and pay was up 4.4 percent year-over-year according to the December ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"). Press release at… 
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-41-000-jobs-in-december-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302655164.html
 
FACTORY ORDERS (RttNews)
“The Commerce Department released a report on Wednesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured goods decreased by slightly more than expected in the month of October. The report said factory orders slumped by 1.3 percent in October after rising by 0.2 percent in September. Economists had expected factory orders to slide by 1.2 percent.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/amp/3608514/u-s-factory-orders-slump-slightly-more-than-expected-in-october.aspx
 
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (CNN)
“The number of estimated job openings – a closely watched indicator of labor demand – fell to its lowest level in more than a year, slumping to 7.15 million at the end of November from 7.45 million the month before, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/07/economy/us-jolts-job-openings-layoffs-november
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 6945.
-VIX rose about 4% to 15.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.150% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025. Stick with quality.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +14 to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.
  
Indicators have been looking good. I added a trading position in QLD. We’ll see.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs.
50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.