Snow … GDP … Jobless Claims … KC Fed Manufacturing ... PCE Prices … Consumer Spending … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
SNOW AND ICE (USA Today)
“More than half of the United States is bracing for a massive winter storm bringing a combination of snow, ice and frigid weather to nearly everyone east of the Rockies, which forecasters warn could knock out power and snarl travel for days.” Story at…
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/weather/2026/01/22/snow-storm-forecast-this-weekend-live-updates/88291072007/

CONSUMER SPENDING / PCE PRICES (CNN)
“A shutdown-delayed report from the Commerce Department showed that spending rose 0.5% from October, above economists’ expectations for a 0.4% gain… The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index — the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve uses for its 2% target rate — rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, which brought the annual rate to 2.8%, unchanged from the September rate that was reported last month.” Story at…
https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/22/economy/us-pce-consumer-spending-inflation-october-november
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“U.S. jobless claims ticked slightly higher last week but remain subdued, signaling little reason to fret that the labor market has worsened abruptly.
The number of people who made fresh filings for unemployment benefits rose to 200,000 in the week through Jan. 17…” Story at…
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/jobless-claims-show-no-red-flags-401ef600?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=AWEtsqfK1ex_2Dd8sDeLqwO5YKjkyLCaO3wde8uXyxUh4IjfMqtzu_nAkHWc6FoIzL8%3D&gaa_ts=6972bcd1&gaa_sig=VCGcZijzm_QyP-aypS1OanmSOSJ8avPDfj8uVAfLxnhanDxvaooUDtlZX0BX9vtessaggF4e-BeP6BsQ4AynFQ%3D%3D
 
GDP (Real Clear Markets)
“This week’s revision of third-quarter GDP offers early but compelling evidence that the long-awaited Trump manufacturing boom is beginning to take shape… Real GDP growth for the quarter was revised up to a strong 4.4 percent annualized rate.” Story
https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2026/01/22/gdp_data_reveal_green_shoots_for_the_trump_manufacturing_boom_1160331.html
 
KC FED MANUFACTURING (Kansas City FED)
“Tenth District manufacturing activity was unchanged, and expectations for future activity cooled but remained expansionary. Prices paid for raw materials increased further this month, while finished product prices growth cooled.” Report at…
https://www.kansascityfed.org/surveys/manufacturing-survey/tenth-district-manufacturing-activity-was-unchanged-in-january/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 6913.
-VIX declined about 7% to 15.64.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.247% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators was unchanged at +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed higher a BULLISH sign.
 
We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart.  I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I need to re-calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.