NY Fed Manufacturing … Philly Fed … Jobless Claims … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
“Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) took to the Senate floor on Wednesday to rail against President Donald Trump's latest chaotic actions, warning that they could destabilize both the economy and the international order for no good reason. Tillis, who is retiring at the end of the year, has become increasingly outspoken against the president. Earlier this month, on the fifth anniversary of the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Tillis gave a floor speech condemning Trump's blanket clemency for the 1,500 people involved in the insurrection…"The thought of the United States taking a position that we would take Greenland ... is absurd," said Tillis. "Whoever told the president that this is a viable path? It doesn't make sense." Story at…
GOP senator says Trump is crossing a line in furious floor speech
 
“Pageant-queen-turned-Tr*mp-lawyer Lindsey Halligan refuses to exit the stage. And now, she’s turned to flat out gaslighting a judge to try keep her job. In blistering terms, the Justice Department told a federal judge Tuesday that Halligan remains the U.S. Attorney for Eastern Virginia, even though a recent court ruling has disqualified her.” Story at…
Pageant-queen-turned-Tr*mp lawyer Lindsey Halligan refuses to exit the stage again & her excuse is utterly ridiculous
My cmt: Unreal. The Courts have ruled on Halligan and another Trump appointee that they were not legally appointed as US Attorneys and cannot serve. They refuse to leave?
 
NY FED MANUFACTURING (Central NY Business Journal)
“The general-business conditions index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose 11 points to 7.7 in January.
The index fell 23 points to -3.9 in December after climbing 8 points to 18.7 in November. Based on firms responding to the survey, the January reading indicates business activity “rose modestly” in New York State, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its Thursday announcement.” Story at…
https://www.cnybj.com/new-york-manufacturing-index-climbs-back-into-positive-territory-in-january/
 
PHILLY FED (Seeking Alpha)
“The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index strengthened to 12.6 in January, topping the -3.5 consensus, from -8.8 prior (revised from -10.9), according to data released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday.” Story at…
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4539381-philly-fed-manufacturing-index-rises-in-january-on-strong-new-orders
less claims
 
INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“Fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week as U.S. layoffs remain low despite growing concern about a weakening job market. U.S. filings for jobless aid for the week ending Jan. 10 fell by 9,000 to 198,000, down from 207,000 the previous week…” Story at…
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-4faf92d3a195abf842aece3df88448cb
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 6944.
-VIX declined about 5% to 15.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.166% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +17 to +19 (19 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
Today there were only 2 bear signs: (1) The Over-bought/Oversold Ratio is now overbought. (2) Utilities are outpacing the S&P 500 on a moving average basis. Given the large number of bull indicators, the two bear signs are not compelling.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I should calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.