Leading Economic Indicators … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
DEMOCRATS NONPROFIT PROBLEM (WSJ)
“The unfolding debacle in Minneapolis captures an underappreciated fact about the Democratic Party: It is configured to react in unreasoning rage to everything President Trump does. The challenge of “messaging”—how to condemn roundups of illegal migrants without defending protesters’ lawlessness—is only a symptom of the problem. The problem itself arises from the Byzantine network of activist nonprofits created and fostered over the past decade and a half by liberal foundations and progressive billionaires…This is the world wealthy liberals created when they decided climate change and, later, systemic racism and abortion restrictions and Israeli “genocide” were all existential menaces requiring marches and sit-ins and other extrademocratic disruptions. It amounts to a subtler and more effective attack on democracy than anything Mr. Trump has attempted.” - Barton Swain, WSJ Opinion Columnist.  Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/news/author/barton-swaim
 
LETTERS TO EDITOR (WSJ)
“Ronald Reagan would like a word: ‘Our peaceful trading partners are not our enemies; they are our allies. We should beware of the demagogues who are ready to declare a trade war against our friends—weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world—all while cynically waving the American flag.’
President Trump’s coercion is antithetical to Reaganism, underscoring how he is transforming American conservatism. More important, he’s weakening our economy, national security and the entire free world.” - T. Michael Spencer
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (PR Newswire)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.3% in November 2025 to 97.9 (2016=100), after declining by 0.1% in October to 98.2, down from 98.3 in September…"The US LEI fell again in both October and November," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "Throughout 2025, weak consumers expectations led the decline in the LEI, followed by new orders. The remaining components of the leading index were relatively muted in November, with the strongest positive contributions coming from labor market data, like initial claims for unemployment insurance and weekly hours worked in manufacturing. Despite real GDP growth hitting 4.4% in Q3 2025, the LEI continues to suggest that the US economy will slow in 2026." Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-declined-in-both-october-and-november-302669086.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 2 pts to 6916.
-VIX rose about 3% to 16.09.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.231% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026; Increased the position 1/21/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from +10 to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign.
 
We still have the bearish rising wedge on the chart.  I’ve shown it in red. The top of the rising wedge on the above chart is around 7,000. We need to see the S&P 500 break above that level to feel better about markets. That will be an important test.
 
The 5-10-20 Timer switched back to bullish today. It had been neutral for several days. This indicator could be a stand-alone one.  It is bullish when the 5-dMA and the 10-dMA are above the 20-dMA and that’s a good crossover signal. Markets are looking good now.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I need to re-calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.