Trump’s Greenland Insanity … Industrial Production … NAHB Housing … … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
   
"This is maybe the most dangerous market of my career, and that includes 1987's crash, that includes the savings and loan debacle market of the early '90s, that includes the 1999 to 2009 lost decade in the S&P 500 in the dot-com bubble. This is the most difficult market of my 45 years." -  Bill Smead, Smead Value Fund (SMVLX), May 2025.”
 
TRUMP INSANITY CONTINUES OVER GREENLAND (Global Times)
“The deployment of European troops in Greenland will not alter US President Donald Trump's plan to take over the Arctic island, the White House spokesperson claimed, according to media reports. The remarks came as European countries move to reinforce Greenland's defenses…” Story at…
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202601/1353425.shtml
My cmt: If Trump makes a military move toward Greenland he must be impeached. I’m not the only one with this opinion.
 
“A senior Republican lawmaker has issued one of the party’s sharpest rebukes yet of President Donald Trump’s renewed rhetoric about acquiring Greenland, warning that any move toward military action against the territory could provoke bipartisan impeachment efforts and fracture GOP unity.” Story at…
Republican warns Trump could face impeachment
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Reuters via Yahoo Finance)
“Manufacturing output rose 0.2% last month after an upwardly revised 0.3% ‌gain in November, the Federal Reserve said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast production for the sector, which accounts for 10.1% of the economy, falling 0.2% after a previously reported unchanged reading in November.” Story at…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-output-unexpectedly-increases-151140204.html
 
NAHB HOUSING INDEX (NAHB)
“Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 37 in January, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. “While the upper end of the housing market is holding steady, affordability conditions are taking a toll on the lower and mid-range sectors,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C.” Report at…
https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2026/01/builder-sentiment-loses-ground-at-start-of-2026
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 6940.
-VIX rose about 0.1% to 15.86.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.227% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
XLK – Added 11/26/2025 & 12/1/2025
SPY – Added 12/1/2025.
NVDA – Added a small position 12/1/2025.
SSO – Added 1/7/2026.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 2 gave Bear-signs and 21 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +19 (19 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication.  I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher, a BULLISH sign.
 
The Over-bought/Oversold Ratio cleared its overbought indication from yesterday and is now neutral. This bearish indicator was replaced with another bear indicator.
 
Like yesterday, today there were only 2 bear signs, but they are different ones than yesterday: (1) Today, there was a bearish crossover in MACD. (2) The other is shown in the chart below; 100% of the ETF’s I track are now above their 120-dMAs. As the chart shows, that often indicates a top, although the indicator is not a timely signal, nor does it tell us if it is an important top.
 

As I noted yesterday, given the large number of bull indicators, the two bear signs are not compelling; however, there is another concern. I added red, short-term trend lines in the “Summary of 50 Indicator Spread” chart above. That creates a bearish Rising Wedge pattern in the chart. That is a good top indicator too. We’ll need to pay attention in the next week or two. The S&P 500 is about 3% above its 100-dMA. My guess is that if we do see some market weakness, a trip to the 100-dMA is likely. A drop to the 200-dMA would be a 9% decline and that is also possible, though less likely.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish and fully invested, but I’ll be watching the markets closely.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
 

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs (although I should calculate this number). 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.