… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
 

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Look out…I am, once again, going off the rails on the 2020 election.  Some of this is old and I have covered it before, but Trump keeps bringing it up. Skip it if you’re tired of my rants…
 
WHY DO SO MANY PEOPLE AGREE WITH TRUMP THAT THE 2020 ELECTION WAS STOLEN?
Well, the following article is typical of the garbage on the internet and it was widely circulated:
HEARTLAND POLL CLAIMS VOTER FRAUD WAS WIDESPREAD DURING 2020 (Yahoo Finance)
“A new poll [2023] by The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports found one-in-five voters who cast mail-in ballots during the 2020 presidential election admit to participating in at least one kind of voter fraud.” – Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/heartland-rasmussen-poll-one-five-161100197.html
My cmt: First of all, we need to always question the source of information.  Immediately we see that the Heartland Institute is best known for its support of the tobacco industry. For more than a decade, the Heartland Institute claimed that smoking did not cause health problems.  Hmmm...doesn’t seem too reputable to me.  When I looked at some of the questions in the poll – They’re suspiciously worded and some of the results seem impossible. For example: “During the 2020 election, did you fill out a ballot, in part or in full, on behalf of a friend or family member, such as a spouse or child?” 21% of respondents said Yes. There’s nothing wrong with that activity and it is allowed in most states as long as the person who filled out the ballot didn’t forge a signature.
 
Yahoo also reported that “17% of mail-in voters said they voted “in a state where you were no longer a permanent resident.” This is extraordinarily high. It implies that 17% of mail in voters moved and that seems bogus; but since a lot of people did move during the pandemic, it’s possible that that many moved due to Covid. But the question doesn’t ask whether they voted twice; so while this might be a technical violation, it does not suggest that the election results were changed by these absentee voters. The question really is, “Did 17% of voters vote twice?” The poll doesn’t answer that question.
 
The Heritage Foundation maintains a voter fraud database and I have previously reported cases where voters voted in more than one state. For example, from the database: “Carol Hannah, was registered to vote in Mohave County, Arizona, and Adams County, Colorado, and was convicted of voter fraud for voting in both states during the 2010 election. Hannah's double voting was detected by the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck Program, a system in which Arizona shares voter data with at least 20 other states. She was convicted and sentenced to three years' supervised probation and $1,000 in fines.” Voter fraud is a criminal offense. So far there is no evidence that fraud changed the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election.
 
The above Yahoo article concludes with the statement that “Taken together, the results of these survey questions appear to show that voter fraud was widespread in the 2020 election, especially among those who cast mail-in ballots.”
 
I’d say that what the article shows is that the author of this article is not very good at critical thinking and is more interested in getting views than providing worthwhile information.
 
Let’s check “voter fraud” in the 2020 election.
2020 VOTER FRAUD (Heritage Foundation Database)
Heritage Foundation reports that there have been 17 convictions for voter fraud in 2020.  [Could be higher now; I haven’t checked this in a while.] Convictions included the following offenses: False Registrations; Buying Votes; Ballot Petition Fraud; Illegal "Assistance" at the Polls; Fraudulent Use of Absentee Ballots; and Ineligible Voting. A few from past elections follow:
-“Randy Allen Jumper voted twice in the 2016 general election. He voted by absentee ballot in Arizona and again by absentee ballot in Nevada. He pleaded guilty to attempted illegal voting, a class 6 felony. He was sentenced to two years probation, fined $5,000, and is barred from voting in Arizona.”
- “April Atilano, of Monterey County, pleaded guilty to 6 counts of felony voter fraud for falsifying voter registration forms. Atilano falsified a number of voter registration cards by changing party affiliation and forging signatures. The forms were submitted to the Madera County Registrar of Voters in July 2019. Atilano was sentenced to one year in prison and three years probation.”
-“Delores "Dee" Handy, of Crowley was found guilty of failing to mark a ballot as instructed when assisting an elderly voter, a misdemeanor. She was sentenced to 11 months in jail which was suspended, two years of probation, and fined $800.”
 
According to Trump. he was robbed in Georgia due to absentee voting, so let’s look at the numbers.
Donald trump won Georgia by 211,000 votes in 2016; Trump lost Georgia by 12,000 in 2020.  So, by Trump’s claims, the Democrats would have needed to falsify at least 233,000 votes to flip the election. Since paper ballots matched the voting machines, the machines weren’t to blame. [Fox paid $750-million for lying about voter-machine fraud.] Absentee ballots? Absentee ballots were matched to voter registrations and signatures were checked. The Dems would have needed to forge close to a quarter-million signatures of existing voters and get them past the verifiers certifying the election - Absurd. Oh, by the way, if any of the 233,000 real people whose identities were stolen voted, they would be identified for duplicate voting. Could the Dems register a quarter million fake names and use them to vote? Not likely. As noted above, Ms. Alitano got caught submitting 6 false registrations.
 
It is simply impossible to steal an election on the scale that Trump continues to claim. 
For more, see the Heritage Foundation website and search the database at...
https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud
 
On the most commonsense level, Trump was behind in the polls before the 2020 election.  Why would anyone be surprised he lost? Further, it the Dems were so good at faking votes, why didn’t they give themselves a clear majority in the Senate so they could do whatever they wanted when Biden was President? (They didn’t get a majority in the Senate until runoff elections in Georgia were held after the 2020 Presidential election. Democrats won both Senate seats in the Georgia runoff after the November election thanks to Trump’s lying about the stolen election.)

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Back to the stock market…
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 7499.
-VIX declined about 2% to 16.64. (VIX was down? What were the Options Players thinking?)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.659% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
 
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025 & 2/6/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
 
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
 

It was disappointing that the Index couldn’t hang on to its highs, but at least the close was higher than the morning lows.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -6 to -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
My comment is the same as Tuesday: I’ll take the optimistic side and suggest that the daily improvement in spread is more important than the smoothed 10-day value.
 
We’ve been watching Micron Technology (MU) to see if the correction in technology, especially the chips, might be ending.  Micron only slipped 1.2% Wednesday. After the 12% move higher yesterday, a 1% dip today should be considered good news.
 
The S&P 500 slipped Wednesday, but it remains 0.4% above its 50-dMA. I follow the indicators, but we use them in conjunction with price action. Price above the 50-dmMA is in the safe zone.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish.  
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.