Friday, December 8, 2017

Payrolls … Average Hourly Earnings … Michigan Sentiment … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

PAYROLLS / HOURLY EARNINGS (Bloomberg)
“Payrolls rose 228,000 in November, above the median economist estimate of 195,000, Labor Department figures showed Friday. Average hourly earnings increased 2.5 percent from a year earlier, less than the 2.7 percent projection, and October’s figures were revised lower.” Story at… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-08/u-s-payrolls-rise-228-000-while-wages-gain-less-than-forecast
 
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT (Bloomberg)
"Consumer sentiment in U.S. unexpectedly fell by the most in a year amid expectations that inflation and interest rates will rise, according to a University of Michigan report Friday.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Friday the S&P 500 was up about 0.6% to 2652.
-VIX was down about 6% to 9.58. (The Options Boys don’t believe a correction is brewing.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.375%.
 
In spite of general improvements in Market Internals over the last 2-days, Indicators have not improved much compared to 2-weeks ago. My sum of 17 Indicators improved from -2 to -1 on the day and was flat on a longer-term basis. A “-” number means there are more bearish indicators than bullish.
 
Just when we look like a correction might happen, the dip buyers move in. Keep it up guys! We’ll see what happens next week. Enjoy the weekend.
 
All in all, I am neutral in the short-term; I wouldn’t short this market unless we see some more compelling evidence of a correction.  I remain bullish longer term.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Financials (XLF) was #1. The markets look a bit strained so perhaps I’ll get a better buying opportunity.  I’ll wait before adding any positions. Other than XLF, there’s not much difference between the next 4. The return on XLF over the last 40-days is 7.1%. None of the ETFs are tearing up the markets.
(I hold XLK, DVY and SPY.)
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Walmart (WMT) Caterpillar (CAT) and Boeing (BA) are all essentially tied at #1. Intel is #4. (I hold Intel.)
Avoid GE and Merck. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Intel is down 4% since I bought it 31 Oct 2017.  This is a risk of a momentum strategy. The hottest stock can get identified after an earnings surprise and the stock has already moved.  The momentum then slows and profit taking follows.  I am going to hold Intel because I think buying will pick up again if they are able to keep up earnings growth. In addition, its PE is a low 15.4 vs the average DOW PE of 25 as of the end of October. The Yield on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 1.9% while the Dividend for Intel is 2.3%. I think it is worth holding.
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Neutral on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Friday, Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.

Thursday, December 7, 2017

Jobless Claims … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, suggesting a rapid tightening of the labor market that bolsters expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week…Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 236,000 for the week ended Dec. 2…” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.3% to 2637.
-VIX was down about 8% to 11.16. (The Options Boys don’t believe a correction is brewing.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.363%.
 
The aircraft carrier of indicators is the new-high new-low data. It is very slow to shift direction so it can be a canary in the coal mine for sniffing out a downturn. New highs outpaced new-lows today, but on a %-basis the 10-day and 40-day moving averages are falling. At this point, I’ll watch the daily new-highs vs.new-lows.  If the new-lows outpace the new-highs we will be a little more worried.
 
My sum of 17 Indicators remained -2 on the day and was down on a longer-term basis too. Bottom line: not much change from yesterday. (A “-” number means there are more bearish indicators than bullish.)
 
I don’t expect much of a pullback – probably in the 3-5% range – but these things can get out of hand should we have some bad news. With the Politicians rattling their cages, that’s a possibility.
 
All in all, I am leaning bearish in the short-term, but I wouldn’t short this market unless we see some more compelling evidence of a correction.  I remain bullish longer term.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Financials (XLF) was #1. The markets look a bit strained so perhaps I’ll get a better buying opportunity.  I’ll wait before adding any positions.
(I hold XLK, DVY and SPY.)
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Walmart (WMT) took over sole possession of #1. (I hold Intel.)
Avoid GE and Merck. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Intel is down 4.8% since I bought it 31 Oct 2017.  This is a risk of a momentum strategy. The hottest stock can get identified after an earnings surprise and the stock has already moved.  The momentum then slows and profit taking follows.  I am going to hold Intel because I think buying will pick up again if they are able to keep up earnings growth. In addition, its PE is a low 15.4 vs the average DOW PE of 25 as of the end of October. The Yield on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 1.9% while the Dividend for Intel is 2.3%. I think it is worth holding.
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Neutral on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Thursday, Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.

Wednesday, December 6, 2017

ADP Employment … Productivity … Crude Inventories … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

ADP EMPLOYMENT (Reuters)
"U.S. private-sector employment growth eased in November even as the manufacturing sector added the most jobs in at least 15 years, a report by a payrolls processor showed on Wednesday. Private employers added 190,000 jobs last month, down from an unrevised 235,000 in October…” Story at…
 
PRODUCTIVITY (USNews)
“US productivity jumps 3 percent in third quarter, best showing in 3 years, while labor costs fall.” Story at…
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (WSJ)
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly petroleum status report Wednesday morning, showing that U.S. commercial crude inventories decreased by 5.6 million barrels last week, maintaining a total U.S. commercial crude inventory of 448.1 million barrels. The commercial crude inventory remains in the upper half of the average range for this time of year.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 1pt to 2629.
-VIX was down about 3% to 11.02. (The Options Boys don’t believe a correction is brewing.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.340%.
 
My sum of 17 Indicators slipped from -1 to -2 on the day and was down on a longer-term basis too. A “-” number means there are more bearish indicators than bullish.
 
See yesterday’s blog for more detail, but let me add to the negative signs:
-As I noted yesterday, “the comparison of Trend in Breadth on the NYSE vs. trend in the S&P 500 is showing a worrisome trend: The S&P 500 is too far ahead of Breadth. The Index vs. Breadth has not been this unbalanced since Nov 2016, but there was only a small pullback of a couple % back then.” Today this indicator slipped further and gave a negative signal on the market; a decidedly bearish indicator.
-Money Trend is slipping down.  I had stopped paying attention to this indicator, but I need to pay attention now.  When Money Trend and the Index are both headed down, it is a bearish sign until Money Trend reverses up.
-The Smart Money (based on late day action) is in negative territory and it has turned down so it’s giving a bearish signal too. Today was typical of market action; the market peaked around 2:30 and then fell into the close. That’s a sign that the Pros aren’t impressed.
 
I don’t expect much of a pullback – probably in the 3-5% range – but these things can get out of hand should we have some bad news. With the Politicians rattling their cages, that’s a possibility.
 
All in all, I am leaning bearish in the short-term.  I remain bullish longer term.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Financials (XLF) was #1. The markets look a bit strained so perhaps I’ll get a better buying opportunity.  I’ll wait before adding any positions.
(I hold XLK, DVY and SPY.)
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Walmart (WMT) took over sole possession of #1. (I hold Intel.)
Avoid GE and Merck. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Intel is down 2% since I bought it 31 Oct 2017.  This is a risk of a momentum strategy. The hottest stock can get identified after an earnings surprise and the stock has already moved.  The momentum then slows and profit taking follows.  I am going to hold Intel because I think buying will pick up again if they are able to keep up earnings growth. In addition, its PE is a low 15.4 vs the average DOW PE of 25 as of the end of October. The Yield on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 1.9% while the Dividend for Intel is 2.3%. I think it is worth holding.
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Neutral on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Wednesday, Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

ISM Services … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

“The current market advance both looks, and feels, like the last leg of a market “melt up” as we previously witnessed at the end of 1999. How long it can last is anyone’s guess. However, importantly, it should be remembered that all good things do come to an end. Sometimes, those endings can be very disastrous to long-term investing objectives.This is why focusing on “risk controls” in the short-term, and avoiding subsequent major draw-downs, the long-term returns tend to take care of themselves.” - Lance Roberts. Full commentary at
 
ISM SERVICES (Advisor Perspectives)
“The headline Composite Index is at 57.4 percent, down 2.7 from 60.1 last month...
‘The NMI® registered 57.4 percent, which is 2.7 percentage points lower than the October reading of 60.1 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a slower rate.’”
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.4% to 2630.
-VIX was down about 3% to 11.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.358%.
 
My sum of 17 Indicators slipped from +9 to -1 on the day and was down on a longer-term basis too. A “-” number means there are more bearish indicators than bullish; further any drop is worrying since the trend is often more important than the raw number.
-Bolllinger Bands are still elevated, but now below 80 so it’s not a sell in my system. RSI was very close to a sell last week. Bollinger bands and RSI when used together aren’t telling us much today – but given some negative signs now, we might infer they were close enough last week to suggest a pullback of some kind.
-Comparison of Trend in Breadth on the NYSE vs. trend in the S&P 500 is showing a worrisome trend: The S&P 500 is too far ahead of Breadth. The Index vs. Breadth has not been this unbalanced since Nov 2016, but there was only a small pullback of a couple % back then.
-New-Lows are picking up and the new-highs don’t look good either.
-Advancing volume is headed down on a smoothed 10-day basis.
-The Overbought/Oversold Index is neutral, but it too was oversold last week. That Index can be very early though, so we’ll wait for further indications.
-The Smart Money (based on late day action) is in negative territory, but remains flat so its neutral.
-Every ETF I track was down today except for Technology and it was up only a smidgeon.
 
All in all, I am cautiously bullish in the short-term, but we are seeing more signs that a drop may be coming soon. I thought we’d get to mid or later December before we saw some sort of pullback. Now, I’m not sure – indicators suggest it may be sooner.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Financials (XLF) was #1. The markets look a bit strained so perhaps I’ll get a better buying opportunity.  XLF (Financials) look good.
(I hold XLK, DVY and SPY.)
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Walmart (WMT) and Intel (INTC) were essentially tied at #1. (I hold Intel.)
Avoid GE and Merck. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Intel is down 2% since I bought it 31 Oct 2017.  This is a risk of a momentum strategy. The hottest stock can get identified after an earnings surprise and the stock has already moved.  The momentum then slows and profit taking follows.  I am going to hold Intel because I think buying will pick up again if they are able to keep up earnings growth. In addition, its PE is a low 15.4 vs the average DOW PE of 25 as of the end of October. The Yield on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 1.9% while the Dividend for Intel is 2.3%. I think it is worth holding.
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals declined to Neutral on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Tuesday, Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.

Monday, December 4, 2017

Factory Orders … QQQ Tell … Hindenburg Omens … John Hussman Market Comment … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

FACTORY ORDERS (Reuters)
“New orders for U.S.-made goods fell less than expected in October and shipments of core capital goods were much stronger than previously reported, pointing to sustained strength in manufacturing that should buoy the economy.” Story at…
 
QQQ TELL (McClellan Financial Publications)
“The high volume seen in QQQ on a recent selloff was a signal that short term bearish sentiment had gotten overdone. The tech selloff on Nov. 29, 2017 was a peculiar one, as it was not echoed elsewhere in the market.” Commentary at…
 
HINDENBURG OMENS? (Felder Report)
“Recently, there have been a number of these [Hindenburg] omens triggered on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. This is really due to the fact that while the indexes and many of their components have been hitting new highs, an equally large number of components have been hitting new lows, as well. This is the sort of persistent dispersion that is the hallmark of a major market peak.” – Jesse Felder.
My cmt: My version of the Hindenburg requires that the New-Highs be less than 2xNew-lows; the McClellan Oscillator be negative; and the 10-dEMA Hi/Lo Logic Index (developed by Norman Fosback in 1979) must be > 30. In my system I haven’t seen a Hindenburg Omen since Jan 2015. Bottom line: Breadth and the new-hi/new-low data do not support a bear call now. For more on the Hindenburg Omen see Mark Hulbert’s column at…
 
DECEMBER MARKET COMMENT EXCERPT (Hussman Funds)
“At present, the valuation measures that we find best correlated with actual subsequent S&P 500 total returns are at the most offensive levels in history, matching or eclipsing the 1929 and 2000 extremes…I’m not saying that Wall Street is misguided to believe that stocks are appropriately priced here. I’m saying that Wall Street is spectacularly misguided in that belief.” – John Hussman, PhD.
My cmt: 
There may be reasons for this that don’t necessarily infer overvaluation. For example:
“In less than two decades, more than half of all publicly traded companies have disappeared. There were 7,355 U.S. stocks in November 1997, according to the Center for Research in Security Prices at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. Nowadays, there are fewer than 3,600.” Jason Zweig, WSJ, 23 June 2017.
 
Combine that with a 15% rise in population since 2001; or a 170% rise in population since 1929 and we can see why valuations are exceeding prior records. More people are chasing fewer stocks – it’s (duh) supply and demand. Perhaps the PhDs need to find a way to adjust for this.
 
We will have another crash. I just don’t think that it can be predicted based on valuation.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Monday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2639.
-VIX was up about 2% to 11.68.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.375%.
 
My sum of 17 Indicators improved from +6 to +9 on the day and improved from +17 to +26 on a 10-day basis. That’s is quite bullish. There are bear signs though.
 
We’re seeing a little too much bullishness.  Bollinger Bands are giving an overbought indication along with the Overbought/Oversold Index. That Index can be very early though, so we’ll wait for further indications.  RSI was 71 which is fairly high, but not yet a sell.  My bearish point for this indicator is 80. The Smart Money (based on late day action) is in negative territory, but is now flat so its neutral.
 
All in all, I am cautiously bullish in the short-term and Bullish long term.  I think we can get to mid or later December before we may see some sort of pullback.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF  15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Financials (XLF) was #1.
(I hold XLK, DVY and SPY.)
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
 
Walmart (WMT) and Intel (INTC) were essentially tied at #1. (I hold Intel.)
Avoid GE, Merck and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
Intel is down 1.4% since I bought it 31 Oct 2017.  This is a risk of a momentum strategy. The hottest stock can get identified after an earnings surprise and the stock has already moved.  The momentum then slows and profit taking follows.  I am going to hold Intel because I think buying will pick up again if they are able to keep up earnings growth. In addition, its PE is a low 15.4 vs the average DOW PE of 25 as of the end of October. The Yield on the S&P 500 (SPY) is 1.9% while the Dividend for Intel is 2.3%. I think it is worth holding.
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals were Positive on the market. (Market Internals are based on a package of internals and all must be positive to create a positive indication. 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Monday, Price indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.