“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
"I’ve worked with Bette Davis, John Wayne, Jimmy
Stewart, Henry Fonda. Here’s the thing they all have in common: They all, even
in their 70s, worked a little harder than everyone else.” - Ron Howard
"This tells you all you need to know about today's
Republican National Committee: The person in charge of election integrity for
the GOP was just indicted in Arizona for lack of election integrity." –
Liz Cheney, former Republican Congresswoman.
ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST (CNN)
“The Gateway Pundit, the notorious far-right
blog and prolific publisher of conspiracy theories, said Wednesday that it had
filed for bankruptcy protection as it grapples with litigation related to its
coverage of the 2020 election. The move comes as
the staunchly pro-Donald Trump website, which promoted the false
notion that the 2020 election was stolen by President Joe Biden and his allies,
faces multiple lawsuits over its bogus claims.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/media/gateway-pundit-declares-bankruptcy/index.html
THEY’RE SO GOOD, NO ONE WANTS TO BUY ONE
“Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared
in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000
vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings
for the company overall.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/business/ford-earnings-ev-losses/index.html
CORE PCE (CNBC)
“The personal consumption expenditures price index
excluding food and energy increased 2.8% from a year ago in March, the same as
in February, the Commerce Department reported Friday. That was above the 2.7%
estimate from the Dow Jones consensus.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/26/pce-inflation-march-2024-key-fed-inflation-measure-rose-2point8percent.html
My cmt: Yesterday’s number that I reported here from
Yahoo Finance was the “advance” Core PCE.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 improved about 1% to 5100.
-VIX declined about 2% to 15.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.663%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) improved to
Neutral today. The Summary is now 10 Bear-signs and 10-Bull. (The rest are
neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those
are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The chart
below also looks more bullish since the 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread (Bulls
minus Bears) has been bottoming and again today, it turned up.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Fast Money crowd on CNBC was again talking about how
the advance has been narrow with only big names, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, etc.,
carrying the market. I don’t know about
that. Moving averages of the % of issues advancing on the NYSE for 10, 50 and
100-days are now all above 50%, i.e., more than half of the issues over those periods
have advanced. A lot of issues are participating. At the S&P 500 high at
the end of March, 13% of all issues on the NYSE made new, all-time highs – that
number suggests a broad advance and that if a decline were to occur, it would probably
be less than 10%. The max decline from the March high was 5.5%, five sessions
ago.
I’ve been saying for several days that I think the
pullback is over. Today, it looks like
the market is starting to agree with me.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I think this pullback is over and Monday I’ll place some
more bets in that direction by adding trading positions in SSO and QLD.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
HYPOCRISY IN WASHINGTON (NY Post via msn.com)
“Hypocrisy is Washington, DC’s lifeblood, so it was a
nice change when DC Judge Ana Reyes [Biden appointed Judge] lambasted the
Justice Department for instructing two lawyers in its Tax Division to disregard
a congressional subpoena in the Hunter Biden investigation, all while it has
been zealously prosecuting Trump officials for the very same offense...
“There’s a person in jail right now because you all brought a criminal lawsuit
against him because he did not appear for a House subpoena,” Reyes said, referring
to Navarro [a former Trump trade adviser]. “And now you guys are flouting those
subpoenas... I think it’s quite rich you guys pursue criminal investigations
and put people in jail for not showing up.” Story at...
DC
judge points out pervasive hypocrisy hell that’s permeating every corner of the
federal government (msn.com)
My cmt: Hypocrisy in Washington? That could never happen.
“You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and
villainy.” – Obi-Wan visits Washington DC.
BIGGEST ENERGY BLUNDER EVER (State of the Union via
msn.com)
“Energy experts have raised concerns about electric
vehicles becoming widely adopted in the U.S. due to issues like cost and
affordability, range limitations, lack of charging infrastructure, reliability
questions, and impacts to the electric grid and energy costs. While government
policies heavily subsidize EVs, critics argue this amounts to a regressive
wealth transfer, with lower/middle income Americans shouldering the higher
costs...
...’We calculated that if you add on the socialized
infrastructure costs, and then in particular add on California’s zero emission
vehicle mandate, which adds cost to all of us because the automakers have to
pay to produce more EVs in California, and they spread that cost to the whole
country, the federal fuel economy regulations alone are subsidizing each EV by
about $20,000. Add all this together, and each EV is getting almost $50,000 in
subsidies.’” Story at...
EV
expert warns about ‘one of the biggest energy policy blunders we’ve ever made’
(msn.com)
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and
realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
“The Environmental Protection Agency’s own climate model
predicts that the proposed emissions standards for light, medium and heavy
vehicles would reduce global temperatures in 2100 by 0.02-degrees Celsius.” - Benjamin Zycher, American Enterprise Institute. From WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-ev-wont-save-the-climate-carbon-eda2089e
My cmt: Isn’t that weird? Auto emissions contribute a
negligible amount to Climate change, but the Biden administration wants to
outlaw ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) by 2035. It reminds me that Democrats
canceled the Keystone Pipeline. As a result, oil must be carried by train to US
refineries, a more costly and environmentally risky proposition – but it
“sounds” better and plays to the environmental extremists.
“I suspect the initial rally may pause in here and some
pruning could be in the cards. While it’s not my preferred scenario, I guess
it’s possible that stocks bottomed already, but I still think the absolute low
lies ahead next month, even if it’s just at marginally lower levels.” – Paul
Schatz, President Heritagae Capital.
GDP / CORE PCE (Yahoo Finance)
“The US economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two
years last quarter as inflation topped Wall Street estimates. The Bureau of
Economic Analysis's advance estimate of first quarter US gross domestic product
(GDP) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of
1.6%...Meanwhile, the ‘core’ Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which
excludes the volatile food and energy categories, grew by 3.7% in the first
quarter, above estimates for 3.4%, and significantly higher than 2% gain seen
in the prior quarter... "The deceleration in GDP growth will not worry the
Fed as the details are better than the headline would suggest," Oxford
economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet said.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-us-economy-grows-at-16-annual-pace-in-first-quarter-falling-short-of-estimates-while-inflation-increases-123328820.html
My cmt: Markets are worried about inflation.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that unemployment
claims for the week ending April 20 fell by 5,000 to 207,000 from 212,000 the
previous week. That's the fewest since mid-February.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-applications-jobless-claims-fall-124135611.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 5048.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.37. (The Options Players aren’t
worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.704%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position
captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow
Jones US Total Stock Market Index. It is not a true small cap index. It is more like everything except the S&P
500.)
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) had been
improving. Today, the 50-indicator spread moved more to the Bear side. The
Summary is currently 15 Bear-signs and 6-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is
normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or
bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The chart is bullish since it was up all day. Let’s see if the Index can follow thru on
Friday. I said yesterday, “my guess is that the pullback is over” based on indicators.
Given today’s reversal in indicators it looks like I was too early? Maybe, but I’ll
declare victory if the S&P 500 doesn’t make a new low. Today’s close was
about 1% above the recent low this past Friday. The Index could drop and retest
that low of 4967, but that is not something I can predict. It still looks like the
pullback is over. A big, one-day pullback of greater than 1% might be the flush
out signal we need to feel more confident. The bad PCE number could allow the serpents to creep into the porridge.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME is bearish; VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is over or at least
winding down.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
TRUMP’S IMMUNITY ARGUMENTS (AJC)
“The Supreme Court Thursday will hear arguments on
whether Donald Trump is immune from prosecution for actions he took while
president, and its decision could sink or delay some of the criminal cases
against him, including Georgia’s [election interference case] ... ‘This may,
indeed, be the most important Supreme Court case in the history of our
country,’ said Donald Ayer, a Georgetown University law professor and former
deputy attorney general under George H.W. Bush. ‘The rule of law is being
tested today as it never has been before...’ A U.S. District Court judge in
Washington had already
rejected Trump’s claim of “absolute immunity.” In February, the appeals
court upheld that decision. Now Trump will make his case to the
Supreme Court.” Story at...
https://www.ajc.com/politics/trumps-immunity-argument-could-scuttle-or-delay-georgia-case/ET75OU2TMNE7HIPUJGH3DTTUQQ/
DURABLE GOODS (fxstreet)
“Durable Goods Orders in the US rose
2.6%..."Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.2%," the US
Census Bureau said in the press release.” From...
https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-rise-26-in-march-to-2834-billion-202404241235
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.4 million barrels from the
previous week. At 453.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
3% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was little changed at 5072.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.97.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.646%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position
captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow
Jones US Total Stock Market Index. It is not a true small cap index. It is more like everything except the S&P
500.)
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears)
remains more to the Bear side, but it improved again. The Summary is currently
12 Bear-signs and 8-Bull (the rest are neutral). It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
As usually happens, there are some cross-currents in the
indicators. Consumer Staples outpaced the S&P 500 by a lot today. Utilities
are outpacing the S&P 500 in momentum in my system and that’s a longer-term
analysis and that is a very bearish sign. Both suggest investors are buying
safety.
On the other hand, the 10-dMA of the spread of 50
Indicators (Bull minus Bear) finally turned up. As the chart shows, in recent
history, the 10-day spread (purple line) has turned up shortly after a bottom,
so the indicators are suggesting that markets have made a bottom. If it is a correct
signal this time, it is turning up 3 days after the bottom. Given the worrisome
flight to safety, the concern is that the signal may not be correct.
Despite those concerns, today, I added XLE (Energy Sector
ETF).
Based on the overall indicators, my guess is that the
pullback is over. As I write this, S&P
500 futures are down 0.6% and Nas futures are down more than 1%, so the options
players think that I am wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is over or at least
winding down.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
NEW HOME SALES / PERMITS (CNN)
“New home sales, which make up about 10% of the market,
jumped 8.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 693,000... Meanwhile,
building permits for future construction tumbled 3.7% in March to a five-month
low.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/23/economy/new-home-sales-march/index.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 5071.
-VIX fell about 7% to 16.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.607%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position
captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow
Jones US Total Stock Market Index.)
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears) remains
more to the Bear side, but Bear-signals decreased by 2 and Bull-signals
increased by 2. The Summary is currently 14 Bear-signs and 8-Bull (the rest
are neutral).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The 10-dMA of indicator spread (Bull minus Bear) declined
again today so we are not getting a buy-signal there. The daily numbers may be giving a better
clue. The spread today was -6; it was
-13 just four trading days ago. 10-day averages tend to lag; the daily numbers
are suggesting “Buy” so aggressive investors may want to buy-the-dip now.
My Money Trend indicator can be a pretty good indicator
at turning point; it is bullish. We saw a couple of days when both Bollinger
Bands and RSI were oversold. We also note that 80% of volume was up-volume
today. That’s good, but by itself this is not an actionable signal. If we see another 80% up-volume day Wednesday,
I would consider it a bullish sign worthy of buying.
All in all, I suspect the pullback has made a bottom and
I’ll probably add a stock trading-position tomorrow, but small retreats (less
than 10%) give small signals. If we see the 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread
turn higher then I think this pullback will be over.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is winding down and I plan to add a trading position tomorrow (most likely one of the higher momentum ETFs). I'll add more when I see the indicators improve.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
I thought these two guys looked alike, but apparently, I
wasn’t the only one who saw a resemblance.
See President Joe (Walter) Biden at...
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=900068311158036
SANCTIONS ON ALASKA (WSJ)
“Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan likes to quip that
the Biden Administration has imposed more sanctions on Alaska than he has on
Iran. He has a point... The Interior Department blocked new oil and gas leasing
on 13.3 million acres in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve. Congress
expressly set aside the region in 1923 for oil and gas development... President
Biden issued a statement saying he is honoring the “culture, history, and
enduring wisdom of Alaska Natives.” That’s also false. His restrictions are
opposed by local indigenous leaders.
Interior on Friday also denied a permit for a 211-mile
road necessary to develop the Ambler Mining District, which is one of the
world’s richest deposits of copper, cobalt, gallium, germanium and other
critical minerals... The Administration is heavily subsidizing chip-making
factories, supposedly to bolster national security and U.S. manufacturing. Yet
now Mr. Biden is effectively shutting down one of the country’s biggest
critical mineral deposits that would do both... If Alaska were a dictatorship
hostile to U.S. interests, it would get better treatment. Alas, it’s merely a
U.S. state that doesn’t vote for Joe Biden.” – WSJ
Editorial Saff from...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-sanctions-alaska-oil-and-gas-dan-sullivan-mary-sattler-peltola-2fcc1a3e
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 5011.
-VIX fell about 9% to 16.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.611%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position
captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow
Jones US Total Stock Market Index.)
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears) slipped
more to the Bear side 16 bear-signs and 6-Bull (the rest are neutral).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The 10-dMA of 50 Indicators was slightly higher on
Friday, but that doesn’t show up on today’s chart. Some of the final data comes in after I
publish the blog so this chart is slightly different than Friday’s chart. Today’s
chart is the updated version. The 10dMA of Indicators was down a little on
Friday (more bearish) and flat Monday.
Monday’s indicators were 16-bear (unchanged from Friday)
and 6-bull (2 less than Friday). Both
Bollinger Bands and RSI switched from Bullish to Neutral so there is no bullish
improvement today.
Indicators are not indicating bottom today. The oversold “buy-signals” have been resolved
and are now neutral. When we look at a chart, we note that the S&P 500 bounced
up from near its 100-dMA and that was a support-point that we thought might put
an end to the downturn.
All we can really say is that Friday might have been the end
of this pullback. I’ll feel better when
we see the indicators improve significantly. That has not occurred yet.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to HOLD: VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is winding down, but I can’t
say that it is over until I see the indicators improve.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position for a retiree.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Earlier this week, Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D)
decided not to veto an obscure law called the National Popular
Vote Interstate Compact (NPV), which calls for the state's 4 Electoral
College votes to be awarded to the presidential candidate who gets the most
votes nationally regardless of the outcome in the state. The law doesn't go
into effect, however, until states totaling 270 electoral votes join the
compact.” – Newsweek at...
The
End of the Electoral College Is Finally in Sight | Opinion (msn.com)
My cmt: Odd. Why give up power to the masses? The electoral college
was originally designed to ensure that the Presidential election went to the
candidate winning a majority of the states. That has changed some over the years, due to
the way that the college votes are apportioned. But without the Electoral
College, we become the United Cities (not States) of America; Cities are where the
votes are. In the future, Presidents will ignore parts of the country and
concentrate on cities. I’m tempted to say that the cities need the attention,
but unfortunately, most cities have been in a death spiral my entire life – and
I’m an old dude.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 fell about 0.9% to 4967.
-VIX rose about 4% to 18.71.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.621%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce was down over 7% Monday. News follows:
“Salesforce (CRM)
is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire data management software company
Informatica (INFA),
according to a Wall Street Journal report. The potential acquisition
would allow Salesforce to boost its data integration and management
capabilities by tapping into Informatica's product suite.” – Yahoo Finance.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position
captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow
Jones US Total Stock Market Index.)
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears)
remained 16 bear-signs and 8-Bull (the rest are neutral).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
A few thoughts supporting the bottom is now...or near:
-The 10-dMA of Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators
turned up today – not by much, but that has signaled an end to pullbacks in
recent history (see the purple line in the chart above).
- I noted earlier that there was support in the 5000 area
on the S&P 500. The S&P 500 didn’t hold there. The 100-dMA is next at 4935,
less than 1% below today’s close. Strong support there.
-Bollinger Bands and RSI are both oversold; Late Day
Action is oversold, too.
-New-lows are falling.
They peaked at 118 on Tuesday. Friday there were 39 new-lows. New-highs
also bottomed on Tuesday, but they have not appreciably improved.
There have been 15 days down with only 1 or 2 up-days
since the end of March. Quoting from a prior correction, “... we could be in
one of these “selling stampedes” that tend to last 17 – 25 sessions, with only
1.5 to three-day pauses/throwback rallies, before they exhaust themselves on
the downside...it [is] too soon to tell yet if this is such a stampede, but ‘Never
on a Friday.’ The reference was that once the markets get into one of these
weekly downside skeins, they rarely bottom on a Friday. Nope, they typically
give participants over the weekend to brood about their losses and then they
show up the next Monday in “sell mode” leading to Turning Tuesday.” - Jeffrey
Saut, Wall Street Legend, Managing Partner of Saut Strategy.
My cmt: That would make this coming Tuesday a possible
bottom.
I’ve been calling for an end to the pullback for several
days. So far, that has not worked out. Hearing all the angst on CNBC one would
think the index has collapsed. It’s a bit overblown; the S&P 500 has only
dropped 5.5% below its all-time high just 3-weeks ago. I don’t think this
pullback goes much farther. If today wasn’t the bottom, it is likely to be
next week.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined
to SELL (although I won’t be selling soon because we are seeing Bottom signals):
PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME & VIX are bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is winding down.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
