Monday, November 20, 2017

Leading Economic Indicators … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

LEI (Advisor perspectives)
“The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased sharply in October, driven by positive contributions from almost all its underlying components. In the six-month period ending October 2017, the leading economic index increased 2.9 percent (about a 5.9 percent annual rate), faster than the growth of 2.3 percent (about a 4.6 percent annual rate) during the previous six months.” Commentary at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Monday the S&P 500 was down about 0.1% to 2582.
-VIX was down about 7% to 11.65.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.362%.
 
My Indicators improved and are improving on a longer-term basis.  The daily sum of 17-indicators was -9 two days ago and today it remained 0. It improved again on a 10-day basis. Late-day action (the smart money) is now headed up over the last 2-weeks and that’s a bullish sign in the short-term. Utilities fell today and that’s a bullish sign too. Utilities are a safe-haven when the markets are in trouble.
 
I am leaning bullish short-term because indicators are currently improving.  My guess is that it is not likely to continue; Sentiment is very close to the extreme readings that sometimes reverse the direction of the Index.
 
I remain bullish longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) remained #1.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
Walmart (WMT) and Intel (INTC) remain essentially tied at #1 today.
 
Walmart?...
“The mighty Amazon.com has been a game-changer, a disrupter, an online retail pioneer that seems to be unstoppable. But old Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has a few tricks up its sleeve. The Bentonville, Ark.-based company’s investments in its employees, its online offerings and delivery, and its stores are paying off in a major way. Investors in Seattle-based Amazon should pay attention.” Commentary at…
Walmart has been up over 10% this week and that’s why WMT has pulled up so far.  The theory is that this momentum will carry over. We’ll see. 
 
Avoid GE, IBM, Merck, United Technologies, Verizon and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
LONG
I sold my VXX position at a loss of 0.1% loss Friday. I had been up 7%, but the improvements in the markets reversed my profit in 2-days.
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
These rules must make one careful when shorting.
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals were Neutral on the market, but improved again.

Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Monday, Sentiment, Price, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.

Friday, November 17, 2017

Housing … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

HOUSING (LA Times)
“Construction of new homes in the United States climbed 13.7% in October, the biggest jump in a year, as builders broke ground on more apartments and single-family houses.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Friday the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2579.
-VIX was down about 3% to 11.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.344%.
 
My Indicators are mixed today; but even negative ones improved. While they are still in negative territory, market Internals were quite strong on the day.  Even with the down day, internals sometimes point the direction of the markets so that was a worry for holding VXX over the weekend. I’d rather take a miniscule loss than hold the risk of a much greater loss. Holding VXX could still turn out to be a big gain, but I don’t want further losses.
 
The daily sum of 17-indicators was -9 two days ago and today it was 0. It improved on a 10-day basis too. Up volume improved and both yesterday and today exhibited up-volume of more than twice down volume. Breadth has improved too and is now a nearly neutral 49.4% advancing over the last 10-days.
 
On the bear side, late-day action (the smart money) was down over the last 2-weeks and it was down again today.
 
I am neutral short-term. The indicators are mixed.
 
I remain bullish longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) remained #1. Utilities (XLU) was #3.  That sn’t a gret sign for the markets.  Utilities are often a safe-haven during market stress.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
Walmart (WMT) and Intel (INTC) are essentially tied at #1 today. Let’s see how they do next week. If the markets turn more positive Intel may regain the lead.
 
Walmart?...
“The mighty Amazon.com has been a game-changer, a disrupter, an online retail pioneer that seems to be unstoppable. But old Wal-Mart Stores Inc. has a few tricks up its sleeve. The Bentonville, Ark.-based company’s investments in its employees, its online offerings and delivery, and its stores are paying off in a major way. Investors in Seattle-based Amazon should pay attention.” Commentary at…
Walmart was up over 10% this week and that’s why WMT has pulled up so far.  The theory is that this momentum will carry over. We’ll see. 
 
Avoid GE, IBM, Merck, United Technologies, Verizon and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
LONG
I sold my VXX position at a loss of 0.1%.
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-“Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
These rules must make one careful when shorting.
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals were Neutral on the market, but improved significantly.
 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Friday, Sentiment, Price, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.

Selling VXX

I sold my VXX position for a slight loss.  The embarrassing thing is that I was up 7% 2-days ago. Indicators are mixed today, but improving. Internals are very good today and that suggests an up day Monday if they hold into the close.

Thursday, November 16, 2017

Jobless Claims … Philadelphia FED … Industrial Production … Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

JOBLESS CLAIMS (FoxBusiness)
“The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits rose for the second straight week, but remained near historically low levels. Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs across the U.S., increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 249,000 in the week ended Nov. 11…” Story at…
 
PHILLY FED (RTTnews)
“Growth in Philadelphia-area manufacturing activity slowed by more than expected in the month of November, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia on Thursday… its diffusion index for current manufacturing activity in the region dropped to 22.7 in November…”  Story at…
My cmt: A number above zero indicates expansion so manufacturing is still growing – just at a slower rate.
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Reuters)
“U.S. industrial production recorded its biggest increase in six months in October as the drag from hurricane-related disruptions unwound, but the underlying growth trend in output at the nation’s factories, mines and utility plants remained moderate.” Story at…
 
HIGH DOWNSIDE RISK or “Would you Rather be a Bear.” (Real Investment Advice)
“I see downside market risk at about four times the upside reward. I don’t believe stocks are a buy on a minor dip — a view adopted by most. Given the outlook that there is outsize risk, I have been steadily expanding my large net short exposure.” – Doug Kass, President of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc. Commentary at….
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.8% to 2586.
-VIX was down about 10% to 11.76.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.373%.
 
The move down yesterday in the S&P 500 was statistically significant (in my system) based on the standard deviation of the price-volume when compared to recent history (after the final volume data was tabulated last night). That was followed by another statistically significant up-day today.  That means that tomorrow (Friday) is likely to be down about 60% of the time. I think we may see some more buying for another day or two, but we shall see. Overall, I think conditions remain negative enough to warrant a bearish prediction in the short run. More dip buyers were bound to move in and we saw that today and it is indicated in the Sentiment readings.
 
Sentiment (measured as %-Bulls [Bulls/{bulls+bears}] based on the amounts invested in Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds) is now 83% bulls.  That’s a very high number that is cause for concern though it is not yet a “sell”. The dippers may drive it into sell territory soon if they keep buying.
 
Market Internals improved to neutral today based on improvements in the new-high/new-low data, but the sum of 17-indicators continues down and the late day action was mostly down indicating hesitation by traders to bet that the dip is over. Over the last 2-weeks the trend has been “late-day selling”.
 
I remain bearish short-term. At this point, it still looks like we’ll see some downside ahead, but one is never sure these days. The markets have defied the shorts for some time.
 
I remain bullish longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) remained #1. Utilities (XLU) was #3.  That isn’t a great sign for the markets.  Utilities are often a safe-haven during market stress.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
Intel (INTC) remained #1 today. I have owned Intel for some time – I bought more Halloween, 10/31/2017. Avoid GE, IBM, Merck, United Technologies, Verizon and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
LONG
I did take a short-term VXX position on 27 Oct very near the close. This violates the rules below, but I am eternally hopeful. I am still holding this position.
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals were Neutral on the market.
 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Thursday, Sentiment, Price, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.

Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Core PPI … Empire Manufacturing … Retail Sales … Crude Inventories … 2017 Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

CORE PPI (Reuters)
“U.S. producer prices rose more than expected in October, driven by a surge in the cost of services, leading to the biggest annual increase in wholesale inflation in more than 5-1/2 years.” Story at…
 
EMPIRE MANUFACTURING (Advisor Perspectives)
“Business activity continued to grow strongly in New York State, according to firms responding to the November 2017 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Though the headline general business conditions index fell eleven points from the multiyear high it reached last month, it remained firmly in positive territory at 19.4.” Commentary and charts at…
 
RETAIL SALES (USNews)
“U.S. retail sales rose at a solid pace last month, as bullish consumers bought more cars, furniture and clothes. Retail sales increased 0.2 percent in October…” Story at…
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OiPrice.com)
“The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a shocking build of 6.513 million barrels of United States crude oil inventories, against a Wall Street Journal analyst expectation that inventories would draw down by 1.4 million barrels for the week ending November 10.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was down about 0.6% to 2565.
-VIX jumped up about 13% to 13.13.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.326%.
 
The trend for the S&P 500 is currently down as indicated by market internals.  What we don’t know is if the trend will continue.  In the recent past these pullbacks have only been about 3%. So far, the Index is only down 1.1%. Given that inflation is picking up and the Fed is in a hiking mode, albeit slow and steady, we can guess that we may see a real correction (>10%) now, or within the next several months. A pullback of some kind is almost a given if one were to rely on history alone. The is the  2nd term of the President and off-Presidential election years are not healthy for the markets. My guess, and it's only a guess, is that we'll see a correction develop from these levels. There are clues.
 
Internals continued their fall: Only 35% of stocks advanced on the day; only 40% of volume was up; and new-lows outpaced new-highs by a number that is high enough to cause concern. Over the last 10-day period only 45% if stocks on the NYSE have advanced.
 
From here, the 50-dMA is 2541 and that could be a stopping point, or not. We’ll see.
 
Market Internals remained negative today. The sum of 17-indicators continues down. While it hinted at a turn up yesterday, today it resumed a steep downward march.
 
I’m bearish short-term. At this point, it looks like we’ll see some downside ahead.
 
I remain bullish longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) remained #1.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
Intel (INTC) remained #1 today. I have owned Intel for some time – I bought more Halloween, 10/31/2017. Avoid GE, IBM, Merck, United Technologies, Verizon and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
LONG
I did take a short-term VXX position on 27 Oct very near the close. This violates the rules below, but I am eternally hopeful. I am still holding this position.
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Negative on the market.
 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Wednesday, Sentiment, Price, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.

Tuesday, November 14, 2017

Small Business Optimism … Producer Price Index … 2017 Stock Market Analysis … ETF Trading … Dow 30 Ranking

SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM (American Institute for Economic Research)
“The National Federation of Independent Business reported a small increase in its optimism index for October, rising 0.8 points to 103.8…the overall level remains high by historical comparison…” Press Release at..
 
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (USAToday)
“Prices at the wholesale level climbed 0.4% in October and 2.8% over the past year, biggest annual jump in more than five years and a sign that an improving economy may finally be reviving inflationary pressures.” Story at…
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS         
-Tuesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.1% to 2579.
-VIX was up about 1% to 11.59.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.375%.
 
Internals continued their fall: Only 41% of stocks advanced on the day; only 32% of volume was up; and new-lows slightly outpaced new-highs.
 
On top of that, sentiment (measured as %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in Rydex/Guggenheim mutual funds) is actually climbing as “investors” buy the dip. If the Internals continue to deteriorate, those dip-buyers will be disappointed, but a correction isn’t a done deal. As it stands, the S&P 500 isn’t even 1% below its recent high so no telling if this will be an event that is remembered next week.  The markets have broken all-time records for the longest time without a pullback of more than 3% and they may just keep going.
 
From here, the 50-dMA is 2541 and that could be a stopping point, or not. We’ll see.
 
Market Internals remained negative today. The sum of 17-indicators continues down, but it is hinting at a turn up. That seems like a good sign, but it could just be that the Indicators will hold in negative territory while the Index falls.
 
I’m bearish short-term. At this point, it looks like we’ll see some downside ahead.
 
I remain bullish longer-term. One wonders when this party will end so I will worry if the numbers deteriorate, but for now I remain fully invested.
 
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.  While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
Technology (XLK) remained #1.
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock. 
Intel (INTC) remained #1 today. I have owned Intel for some time – I bought more Halloween, 10/31/2017. Avoid GE, IBM, Merck, United Technologies, Verizon and Disney. Their 120-day moving averages are falling.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system. For more details, see NTSM Page at…
 
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
LONG
I did take a short-term VXX position on 27 Oct very near the close. This violates the rules below, but I am eternally hopeful. I am still holding this position.
My shorting rule is as follows:
-“In a bull market, you can only be long or neutral.” – D. Gartman
-“The best policy is to avoid shorting unless a major bear market is underway and downside momentum has been thoroughly established. Even then, your timing must sometimes be perfect. In a bull market the trend is truly your friend, and trading against the grain is usually a fool's errand.” – Clif Droke.
-Commandment #1: “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.” - James P. Arthur Huprich
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals remained Negative on the market.
 
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late.  They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.  In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting). 
 
LONG TERM INDICATOR                                                        
Tuesday, Sentiment, Price, VIX & Volume indicators were neutral. With VIX recently below 10 for a couple of days in May, June, July, August, September, October and now November, VIX may be prone to incorrect signals. Usually, a rising VIX is a bad market sign; now it may move up, but that might just signal normalization of VIX, i.e., VIX and the Index may both rise. As an indicator, VIX is out of the picture for a while.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. The remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation, but I consider it fully invested for my situation.
 
The previous signal was a BUY on 2 June and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.