Beige Book ... ADP Employment Change ... Job Openings ... Crude Inventories Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
QUIZ: There are 5 colleges that have produced both a U.S.
President & a Super Bowl-winning QB. How many can you name? Answer at
bottom of today’s post.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“...we’re at a time in American politics, that I am not
going to lie on behalf of my presidential candidate, on behalf of my party. And
I’m very sad that others in my party have taken the position that, as long as
we get the White House, it doesn’t really matter what we say.” - Ken Buck, Representative (R-CO)
on why he is retiring.
“Last week Attorney General Letitia
James charged the world’s largest beef producer, JBS USA, with misrepresenting
its carbon emissions. “The JBS Group has profited from its fraudulent and
illegal business activities across New York State,” the AG claims in a lawsuit
filed in state court. Pray tell, how? Her argument is that eating beef is bad
for the climate, and that JBS duped consumers into buying its products by
making overly ambitious pledges to cut emissions. Seriously. That’s the case.”
- WSJ Editorial staff. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/letitia-james-sues-jbs-climate-meat-business-new-york-attorney-general-631febb1
My cmt: This is the same NY prosecutor that got a
$400-million judgement against Trump. I still don’t get charging Trump with
fraud for overvaluing his real estate holdings when there was no testimony in
the trial that the Banks would have charged higher rates if Trump had told the
truth. Now this? It’s sad commentary on Government when this kind of crap is
occurring.
“[It is] a hard truth we must all come to grips with -
there are no humans in Washington. Any one who acts to sacrifice the current
needs of their political party are either eaten alive or forced out by the
natives. These animals live and thrive on the exorbitant riches available to
indulge their deepest carnal needs, damn everything else to hell. They create
massive debts, deficits and inflation while solving no problems and enriching
themselves, political elites and the donor classes.” - Justin Weller Tampa Free
Press
Weller:
The Woman Who May Have Saved The Republic (msn.com)
BEIGE BOOK (MorningStar)
“The latest findings by the so-called Beige Book dovetail
with comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday. Powell told Congress a
few hours before the report that "what we are seeing so far this year is
continued solid growth." He said the Fed expects to cut interest rates
later this year if inflation continues to slow steadily toward the central
bank's 2% target." Story at...
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240306336/feds-beige-book-says-us-economy-picked-up-speed-while-inflation-labor-market-cooled
ADP EMPOYMENT CHANGE (ADP via prnewswire)
“Private sector employment increased by 140,000 jobs in
February and annual pay was up 5.1 percent year-over-year, according to the
February ADP® National
Employment Report (TM)... "Job gains remain solid. Pay gains
are trending lower but are still above inflation," said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.” Story at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-140-000-jobs-in-february-annual-pay-was-up-5-1-302081418.html
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (Advisor Perspectives)
“The latest job openings and labor turnover summary
(JOLTS) report showed that job openings were little changed in January.
Vacancies inched down to 8.863 million from December's downwardly revised level
of 8.889 million. The latest reading was higher than the expected 8.800 million
vacancies.” Commentary at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/06/job-openings-jolts-january-2024
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.4 million barrels from the
previous week. At 448.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5105.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 14.5.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.106%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of
support around the 200 level. If Boeing
drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We noted yesterday that the S&P 500 retested the 5057
area at the lower, short-term, trend-line for the Index (depending on the
scales used when one draws the chart). The Index improved towards the close,
but still closed near its lows for the day. I suggested that yesterday could
have been the end of the current pullback.
Today’s action gives us more evidence that the weakness is slowing and
is probably over for the time being.
I say “time-being” because markets remain stretched: The S&P 500 remains in the upper range of
Bollinger Bands, though not overbought yet; The S&P 500 is 12.4% above its
200-dMA, slightly above the point where we get a bear signal. (The Bear
indicator is 12% above the 200-day.); All the ETFs I track were still above
their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/6/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a
bearish indicator. This indicator will be extended for a week.
These indicators suggest we need to be alert to the
possibility that markets could retreat, although I would expect to see further
deterioration in indicators first; but there’s no guarantee of that. For now,
it is more likely that markets will move higher in the short-term.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there
were 7 bear-signs and 17-Bull. Tuesday, there were 7 bear-sign and 16 bull-signs.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive; SENTIMENT,& VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in
leveraged positions if sell signals pop-up.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming
effort and may take awhile.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
Answer to Quiz:
1. Delaware: Biden/Flacco
2. Miami (OH): Harrison/Big Ben
3. Michigan: Ford/Brady
4. Stanford: Hoover/Elway/Plunkett
5. Navy: Carter/Staubach
