New Home Sales ... National Activity Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
"If you listen to Democratic elites – NPR is my go-to place for that – the whole talk is about how women, and women of color, are going to decide this election...I’m like: ‘Well, 48 percent of the people that vote are males. Do you mind if they have some consideration?" – James Carville, Democrat Political Consultant.
 
“Supreme Court Takes Firm Stance on January 6 Insurrection by Banning Ex-New Mexico Official” – Trendy Digests. From...
Supreme Court Takes Firm Stance on January 6 Insurrection by Banning Ex-New Mexico Official (msn.com)
My cmt: No, the Supreme Court did not ban a former New Mexico official from running for office.  The Court ruled that States have authority to ban insurrectionists within their states, but states cannot ban officials from holding Federal office.  The way the article was written is misleading and continues what appears to be an effort to undermine confidence in the Court.
 
From Bloomberg:
 
NEW HOME SALES (US News)
“Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell in February after mortgage rates increased during the month, but the underlying trend remained strong amid a chronic shortage of previously owned houses on the market... New home sales slipped 0.3%...” Story at...
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2024-03-25/us-new-home-sales-unexpectedly-fall-in-february
 
NATIONAL ACTIVITY INDEX (Advisor Perspectives)
"The headline for this morning's release of the Chicago Fed's National Activity Index (CFNAI) reads "Index suggests economic growth increased in February". The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.05 in February from -0.54 in January.” Charts and commentary at... 
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/03/25/chicago-fed-national-activity-index-cfnai-economic-growth-increased-february-2024
 
“The stock market continues to behave very well, even better than I thought and I have been among the most positive for 18 months. The foundation remains very strong and solid which is why I do not see a full-fledged correction of 10%+ coming anytime soon. A pullback may be coming as I still see a March peak, but it should be limited and buyable.” - Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital.
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/less-is-more-in-2024/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% to 5218.
-VIX rose about 1% to 13.19.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.249%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Monday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been nearly flat since 1 March. This is the third high, unchanged-volume day this month, so perhaps the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
Depending on the scales used to draw charts, today the S&P 500 is at its lower trendline. I’ll be watching that level and checking other charts. Needless to say, I’d rather not see the Index below its trendline on any charts.  
 
I said before that QLD is making a triple top and trying to break out. If it can’t do it over the next couple of sessions, I’ll sell QLD and add to my UWM position. It hasn’t had an upward breakout, but on a relative basis, it has moved back into 3^rd position on my momentum charts so I’ll continue to hold it.
 
Indicators were a little more bearish, but it was a down-day and it is not a surprise to see some deterioration. We’ll keep an eye on the indicators.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 8 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Friday, there were 6 bear-signs and 17 bull. Here are a few of the indicators:
 
On the BEAR side:
-The S&P 500 remains stretched and is now 13.3% above its 200-dMA. The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day, but I don’t trade one signal – we care more about the ensemble.
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/25/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator.
 
NEUTRAL
-Bollinger Bands.
-RSI.
 
BULL
-Almost all the Breadth indicators look OK. Breadth is a very important indicator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
-MACD
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLK moved back into 3rd place based on Momentum, so I am holding XLK.

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right!  Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move.  I’ll wait a bit longer.

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved, but remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.