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“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“The fact that so many successful politicians are such
shameless liars is not only a reflection on them, it is also a reflection on
us. When the people want the impossible, only liars can satisfy.” ― Thomas Sowell
“It has become undeniably clear and obvious to any
reasonable person that Donald Trump is experiencing increasing challenges with
his speech, language, and memory during these last few weeks and months. Such a
conclusion does not require a huge team of investigative journalists: a person
only has to watch the corrupt ex-president’s speeches, interviews and other
public behavior. For example, at a series of rallies and other events last
weekend, Trump repeatedly confused one person with another. Like a broken
computer in a science fiction movie, Trump appears to have moments where he
cannot speak, appears lost in his thinking, and is more generally confused as
he spouts nonsense words and non-sequiturs.” - Dr. John Gartner, former
professor at the Johns Hopkins University Medical School. From...
Dr.
John Gartner: The world is watching "a fundamental breakdown in Trump’s
ability to use language" (msn.com)
"If Trump doesn't win in November (he won’t) he's
headed for what for him will be life in prison. He is a traitor to the United
States." – Post on “X” by Anthony Scaramucci, former White House Director
of Communications under Trump, founder of SkyBridge Capital hedge fund and
frequent CNBC guest.
“...both Messrs. Trump and Biden aren’t only weak
contenders but massively flawed, old and declining, despised by much of
America. In my lifetime there have been lower points in our nation’s politics,
but it is hard to recall them just now.” - Carl Rove, Former White House Deputy
Chief of Staff under George W. Bush. WSJ Op-Ed at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/tuesdays-winners-arent-so-super-voters-overwhelmingly-back-terrible-candidates-52b98456
Biden or Trump? Biden or Trump? Third Party.
THIRD PARTY COMING (The Western Journal)
“The third-party movement calling itself No Labels is
moving forward to pick a presidential candidate. A Friday meeting is expected
to lay out a timetable for the selection process of a presidential and
vice-presidential candidate, according to the Associated Press, which cited two people it did not name as
its sources.” Story at...
No
Labels' Party Expected to Enter Presidential Race, Which Could Tear Apart
Biden's Chances (msn.com)
My cmt: This is the first time in political history that
Independents are a bigger % of voters than either Republicans or Democrats.
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Yahoo Finance)
“Data from the
Bureau of Labor Statistics released Friday showed the labor market
added 275,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in February, significantly more additions
than the 200,000 expected by economists. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate
increased to 3.9%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/february-jobs-report-us-economy-adds-275000-jobs-unemployment-rate-hits-39-133253114.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 0.7% to 5124.
-VIX rose about 2% to 14.74.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.077%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of
support around the 200 level. If Boeing
drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators dipped some, but remained bullish.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 8 bear-signs and 16-Bull. A week ago,
there were 5 bear-signs and 18 bull-signs.
On the BEAR side:
-Friday was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day. According to
Investopedia: “This demonstrates that the bulls had control over the market
before the bears took the reins in a meaningful way, signaling a shift in the
overall trend...
For instance, a stock may have a small move higher on the first day, climb even
higher the second day, but then sharply decline by the second day’s end... This
formation is considered a strong indicator that the prior upward momentum is
waning and a reversal is on the horizon.”
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/outsidereversal.asp#:~:text=A%20bearish%20outside%20reversal%2C%20also,by%20the%20second%20day's%20end
- The S&P 500 is 12.6% above its 200-dMA. Markets are
getting stretched. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective
200-dMA, today, 3/8/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This
indicator will be extended for a week.
- Selling pressure has been greater than buying pressure for
awhile
On the BULL side:
- 59% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the
last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
- New-high/new-low data is bullish.
- McClellan Oscillator.
NEUTRAL indicators include:
-10.5% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 7 March 2024. (There is no
bullish signal for this indicator, but this is a good, higher than average
number that reinforces the notion that breadth is healthy with decent
participation in the advance.)
- RSI remains in neutral territory.
- Bollinger Bands remain neutral.
-There have been 11 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 5 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
The S&P 500 is 4.1% above its 50-dMA. That’s high, but not an extreme number.
These indicators suggest we need to be alert to the
possibility that markets could retreat, and
Friday’s Outside Reversal Day is concerning, even though it is not always
correct. I’ll watch market action Monday. I may sell leveraged positions if
there’s a lot of bearish action. It’s not an easy decision, because the S&P
500 is very close to its lower trendline, suggesting the move is likely to be higher
not lower.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in
leveraged positions when warranted.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming
effort and may take awhile.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
