Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Former President Trump suggested Tuesday he’s considering support for a ban on abortions at 15 weeks, laying down a potential marker on an issue that has galvanized Democrats following the end of Roe v. Wade.” From The Hill at...
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4544165-trump-15-weeks-possible-abortion-ban/
My cmt: This is one of the dumbest ideas in Political History. This proposal garnered little support in Virginia when Governor Youngkin proposed it. It cost the Republicans control of the Statehouse in the last election. But the real stupidity is that the Supreme Court has already ruled that the Federal Government doesn’t decide this issue – it’s not a power granted to the Federal Government in the Constitution.  Powers not specifically granted to the Federal Government revert to the States. At least Virginia had authority to make laws on the subject; the Federal Government, both Republicans and Democrats, do not.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 5234.
-VIX rose about 1% to 13.06.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.202%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:

QLD is making a triple top and trying to break out. If it can’t do it over the next couple of sessions, I’ll sell QLD and add to my UWM position. XLK and QLD have been stalled for a month.
 
The S&P 500 was up 4 days in a row, until today, so a down-day Friday is no surprise and it gives the market a chance to cool off.
 

Indicators were a little more bearish, but it was a down-day and it is not a surprise to see some deterioration in indicators.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 6 bear-signs and 17-Bull. Wednesday, there were 5 bear-signs and 19 bull. Here are a few of the indicators:
 
On the BEAR side:
-The S&P 500 remains stretched and is now 13.9% above its 200-dMA. The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day, but I don’t trade one signal – we care more about the ensemble.
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/15/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator.
 
NEUTRAL
-Bollinger Bands improved to Neutral.
-RSI remains neutral.
 
BULL
-Almost all the Breadth indicators look OK. Breadth is a very important indicator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:

TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
My rules say I am supposed to sell an issue that falls out of the  top 3 in Percentile Rank.  XLK is in 5^th place based on Momentum. That would now mean selling XLK. I will remain patient a little longer; let’s see what the chart does.
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right!  Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move.  I’ll wait a bit longer.
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.