States Can’t Remove Trump from Ballots for Insurrection ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
SUPREME COURT RULES STATES CAN’T REMOVE TRUMP FROM BALLOTS (CNBC)
“We conclude that States may disqualify persons holding or attempting to hold state office,” the ruling said. “But States have no power under the Constitution to enforce Section 3 with respect to federal offices, especially the Presidency.” ...All nine Justices agree on the outcome of this case.” – Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/04/supreme-court-rules-in-trump-colorado-ballot-case.html
 
TRUMP STILL CLAIMS ELECTION WAS STOLEN
"Do you ever notice they go after the people that want to find out where the cheating was? And by the way, 82% of the country understands that it was a rigged election. You can't have a country with that. A poll came out, 82 percent," – Donald (The Liar) Trump.
My cmt: There is no such poll.  Anyone who has considered the claims of election fraud for more than 5-minutes realizes that Trump’s stolen election claims are completely fabricated.
 
BIDEN BORDER VISIT - ITINERARY
“Board AF1, take nap...
...Wake up in place called Brownsville. Read large teleprompter message, ‘It’s all Trump’s fault...'
...Board AF1, ask who people in green uniforms were, told they ‘strap’ illegal aliens, express horror, take nap...
...Wake up, call a lid, hit beach, take nap.” - National Border Patrol Council (Border Patrol Union) makes fun of Biden’s trip to the border.
 
STEELE TO TRUMP
“Former RNC chair @MichaelSteele responds to Trump saying “We’re getting rid of the Romney’s of the world”:
“Game on, Trump. Game on. I’ve been in this party since 1976. If anyone is the biggest RINO, it’s you…I’m sick of this crap from these crazy folks that think that they are now the anchor of Republicanism.” - Posted to “X” (Twitter) by Republicans Against Trump.
 
RENTING STOCKS (Heritage Capital)
“I am in a rent don’t own phase now where I was all about owning in size with leverage since September 2022. I don’t hate the stock market, but it’s had a meteoric rise and risk has really come up along with bullish sentiment. No more fear and despondency. Now folks are giddy, cocky and greedy. That tells me to dance closer to the door and not to sit on my hands.” – Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.1% to 5131.
-VIX rose about 3% to 13.49.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.217%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Monday, the CNBC “Fast Money” crowd (especially Dan Nathan) were noting some of the leaders, made up of the “Magnificent 7” stocks, are showing weakness. According to Dan, that puts the rally at risk since the rally has been concentrated in a few stocks. Yes, it’s a concern, but when I look at the new, 52-week highs, the data doesn’t support that thesis that the rally is getting narrower. Today, 288 issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. One needs to go all the way back to November of 2021 to find a day when more than 288 issues made new highs. However, I do have an issue with the rally.
 
The rally is due for a pause or pullback because it is getting too stretched - not because it is getting narrower. Today was actually a pretty good day. The down day was small. If the S&P 500 goes sideways for a while, the 200-dMA can catch up and that would eliminate a significant concern that the rally is too extended.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there are 4 bear-signs and 18-Bull. Friday, there were 6 bear-sign and 17 bull-signs.
 
The most significant BEAR signs have not changed much:
-The S&P 500 is 13.2% above its 200-dMA. Markets are getting stretched. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were still above their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/4/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This indicator will be extended for a week.
 
Repeating from Friday:
My position has been overly bullish since the October low in 2022. Markets are stretched enough to indicate that some risk management in the portfolio may soon be necessary.  There are several triggers that would make me sell leveraged positions: (1) There is a huge up-day that is statistically significant in my system; (2) the S&P 500 reaches its upper trend-line in the short-term chart from the October 2023 low; (3) Top indicators warn – i.e., both RSI and Bollinger Bands are overbought; (4) Indicators deteriorate significantly.  
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in leveraged positions if sell signals pop-up.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile. 
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.