“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund...
“Reagan had the gift of being able to deal with people
with whom he didn’t agree. There is a reason he took 49 states in the 1984
presidential election: He knew how to bring people together. His love of
American values and greatness permeated all of his thinking.
As for Mr. Trump, he has been a great divider... he has deviated from many tried-and-true Republican policies like free trade and standing up to dictators...” - Douglas Lempereur, WSJ letters.
As for Mr. Trump, he has been a great divider... he has deviated from many tried-and-true Republican policies like free trade and standing up to dictators...” - Douglas Lempereur, WSJ letters.
POWER THE EPA EV FANTASY? (WSJ)
“The futurists at the Environmental Protection Agency are confident that electric vehicles will soon become cheap, reliable and easy to fuel... Widespread adoption of EVs will require an unprecedented and staggeringly expensive expansion of local electrical grids. This will require a huge increase in the production of electrical transformers, along with more power plants and transmission lines to produce and deliver energy.. We estimate that achieving the EPA’s goal will require north of $1 trillion in grid upgrades by 2035... EV advocates at the EPA suggest that these mandates will induce market forces that will solve the attendant challenges. That’s a novel—and dubious—theory of innovation. Some behavioral changes might help, such as rationing access to EV charging or reducing the number of cars. Perhaps that’s the real goal. Whatever the motivation, the EPA’s de facto EV mandate is another green fantasy.” - Jonathan A. Lesser, a senior fellow and Mark P. Mills, director of the National Center for Energy Analytics. See the full opinion piece at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-we-power-the-epas-ev-fantasy-electrical-grid-energy-vehicles-a786d535?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
“The Environmental Protection Agency’s own climate model
predicts that the proposed emissions standards for light, medium and heavy
vehicles would reduce global temperatures in 2100 by 0.02-degrees Celsius.” - Benjamin Zycher, American Enterprise Institute. From WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-ev-wont-save-the-climate-carbon-eda2089e
My cmt: Isn’t that weird? Auto emissions contribute a negligible amount to Climate change, but the Biden administration wants to outlaw ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) by 2035. It reminds me that Democrats canceled the Keystone Pipeline. As a result, oil must be carried by train to US refineries, a more costly and environmentally risky proposition – but it “sounds” better and plays to the environmental extremists.
ISRAEL’S NEW STANDARD OF WARFARE (Newsweek)
“The Israel Defense Forces conducted an operation at al-Shifa hospital in the Gaza Strip to root out Hamas terrorists recently, once again taking unique precautions as it entered the facility to protect the innocent; Israeli media reported that doctors accompanied the forces to help Palestinian patients if needed. They were also reported to be carrying food, water and medical supplies for the civilians inside... In my long career studying and advising on urban warfare for the U.S. military, I've never known an army to take such measures to attend to the enemy's civilian population, especially while simultaneously combating the enemy in the very same buildings. In fact, by my analysis, Israel has implemented more precautions to prevent civilian harm than any military in history—above and beyond what international law requires and more than the U.S. did in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan... yet, analysts who should know better are still engaging in condemnation of the IDF based on the level of destruction that's still occurred—destruction that is unavoidable against an enemy that embeds in a vast tunnel system under civilian sites in dense urban terrain.” Story at...
Israel Has Created a New Standard for Urban Warfare. Why Will No One Admit It? | Opinion (msn.com)
DURABLE GOODS / CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Yahoo News)
“Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods increased more than expected in February, while business spending on equipment showed tentative signs of recovery as the economy's growth prospects in the first quarter remained upbeat.,, Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, rose 1.4% last month... the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index was little changed at 104.7 in March. "Recession fears continued to trend downward," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. "Meanwhile, consumers expressed more concern about the U.S. political environment compared to prior months." Story at...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-rebound-124603369.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% to 5204.
-VIX dropped about 2% to 12.92. (The Options Players aren’t concerned about a correction.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.238%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 10 bear-signs and 13-Bull. Monday, there were 8 bear-signs and 15 bull.
-The S&P 500 remains stretched and is now 12.9% above
its 200-dMA. The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day, but I don’t trade one
signal – we care more about the ensemble.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market
internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions
before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown”
of indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish. We’ll see...
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLK moved to 4th place.
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right! Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move. I’ll wait a bit longer.
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
“The futurists at the Environmental Protection Agency are confident that electric vehicles will soon become cheap, reliable and easy to fuel... Widespread adoption of EVs will require an unprecedented and staggeringly expensive expansion of local electrical grids. This will require a huge increase in the production of electrical transformers, along with more power plants and transmission lines to produce and deliver energy.. We estimate that achieving the EPA’s goal will require north of $1 trillion in grid upgrades by 2035... EV advocates at the EPA suggest that these mandates will induce market forces that will solve the attendant challenges. That’s a novel—and dubious—theory of innovation. Some behavioral changes might help, such as rationing access to EV charging or reducing the number of cars. Perhaps that’s the real goal. Whatever the motivation, the EPA’s de facto EV mandate is another green fantasy.” - Jonathan A. Lesser, a senior fellow and Mark P. Mills, director of the National Center for Energy Analytics. See the full opinion piece at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/can-we-power-the-epas-ev-fantasy-electrical-grid-energy-vehicles-a786d535?mod=opinion_lead_pos5
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-ev-wont-save-the-climate-carbon-eda2089e
My cmt: Isn’t that weird? Auto emissions contribute a negligible amount to Climate change, but the Biden administration wants to outlaw ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) by 2035. It reminds me that Democrats canceled the Keystone Pipeline. As a result, oil must be carried by train to US refineries, a more costly and environmentally risky proposition – but it “sounds” better and plays to the environmental extremists.
“The Israel Defense Forces conducted an operation at al-Shifa hospital in the Gaza Strip to root out Hamas terrorists recently, once again taking unique precautions as it entered the facility to protect the innocent; Israeli media reported that doctors accompanied the forces to help Palestinian patients if needed. They were also reported to be carrying food, water and medical supplies for the civilians inside... In my long career studying and advising on urban warfare for the U.S. military, I've never known an army to take such measures to attend to the enemy's civilian population, especially while simultaneously combating the enemy in the very same buildings. In fact, by my analysis, Israel has implemented more precautions to prevent civilian harm than any military in history—above and beyond what international law requires and more than the U.S. did in its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan... yet, analysts who should know better are still engaging in condemnation of the IDF based on the level of destruction that's still occurred—destruction that is unavoidable against an enemy that embeds in a vast tunnel system under civilian sites in dense urban terrain.” Story at...
Israel Has Created a New Standard for Urban Warfare. Why Will No One Admit It? | Opinion (msn.com)
“Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods increased more than expected in February, while business spending on equipment showed tentative signs of recovery as the economy's growth prospects in the first quarter remained upbeat.,, Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, rose 1.4% last month... the Conference Board said its consumer confidence index was little changed at 104.7 in March. "Recession fears continued to trend downward," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. "Meanwhile, consumers expressed more concern about the U.S. political environment compared to prior months." Story at...
https://www.yahoo.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-rebound-124603369.html
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.3% to 5204.
-VIX dropped about 2% to 12.92. (The Options Players aren’t concerned about a correction.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.238%.
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
Now there are 10 bear-signs and 13-Bull. Monday, there were 8 bear-signs and 15 bull.
I am cautiously bullish. We’ll see...
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLK moved to 4th place.
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right! Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move. I’ll wait a bit longer.
