PCE Prices ... GDP ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
PCE PRICES (Detroit News)
“A measure of inflation that is closely tracked by the Federal Reserve slipped last month in a sign that price pressures continue to ease. The government reported Friday that prices rose 0.3% from January to February, decelerating from a 0.4% increase the previous month...” Story at...
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/2024/03/29/consumer-spending-inflation-gauge-price-pressures-easing-gradually/73142521007/
 
GDP (FOX News)
“The third and final estimate for real gross domestic product (GDP) in the fourth quarter of 2023 was revised upwards, showing that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.4%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/gdp-fourth-quarter-final
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5254.
-VIX rose about 2% to 13.01.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.206%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
“A toast to my big brother George, the richest man in town.”
 

The above chart is the spread between Bull indicators and Bear Indicators (Bull minus Bear) shown in Red. Neutral indicators are ignored. The Purple line is the 10-dMA of indicator spread (red line). The data suggests that a sharply falling 10-dMA spread usually (but not always) precedes, or occurs early in corrections.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Indicators moved more sharply to the bull side - .Today there are 3 bear-signs and 21-Bull.
 
While this is a good indication, sometimes there can be too much of a good thing. As the chart above shows, weakness sometimes starts from extreme levels. Last summer, the 10% correction was preceded by an indication of zero bearish indicators. Still, I don't want to over think the indicators - I think the news is good..
 
HERE ARE SOME KEY INDICATORS:
BULL:
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
-Breadth indicators are all bullish.
 
NEUTRAL:
-13% of all issues on the NYSE made new-highs today when the S&P 500 made a new all-time high. The 5-year average was for this stat is roughly 6.7% so this is a sign of a healthy market. There is no Bullish signal for this indicator – it’s bearish if it is a small number.
-RSI
-Bollinger Bands
 
BEAR:
-Smart Money (late-day-action) has been falling.  This is not something we like to see. It suggests the Pros are less enthusiastic that we’d like.
-The S&P 500 is 13.8% above its 200-dMA. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
XLK moved to 5th place.
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right!  Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move.  I’ll wait a bit longer.
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.