“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Since this is an era when many people are concerned
about 'fairness' and 'social justice,' what is your 'fair share' of what
someone else has worked for?” ―
“Voters are just gonna have to choose between ‘a
sympathetic, well-meaning, elderly man with a poor memory’ or a contemptible,
malicious, elderly rapist with a poor memory.” – Steven Colbert
"It’s a bad war. And Putin has so little respect for
Obama that he’s starting to throw around the nuclear word.” – Donald Trump at
last week’s Virginia campaign rally.
My Cmt: Hey Donald! Obama’s not the President. Apparently, Biden isn’t the only senile candidate.
“The reason I think the Democratic party and President
Biden is losing Black votes is they only care about Black people every four
years.” – Charles Barkley, NBA All-Star, on CNN.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 5118.
-VIX rose about 3% to 15.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.098%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – SOLD 3/11/2024. I couldn’t take the daily bad
news anymore. When the news ends it may be a good buy – for me, it’s goodbye.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 closed on its lower trend line today. It has been there before. Since 17 January, the Index has closed on its lower trendline 6 times. The trendline slopes upward so the Index has advanced about 8% since then; this is not a bear or bull sign. But we don’t want to see the index break significantly below it’s lower trendline. That would be bad news. Breadth remains in good shape so it seems more likely that markets will move higher not lower. Another possibility is that markets stall for a while and allow the 200-dMA catch up to the S&P 500.
Indicators dipped some, but remained bullish.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 8 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Friday, there were 8 bear-signs and 16 bull-signs.
We still see the market is stretched to the high side:
- The S&P 500 is 12.3% above its 200-dMA. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/11/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This indicator will be extended for a week.
These indicators suggest we need to be alert to the
possibility that markets could retreat and Friday’s Outside Reversal Day is
concerning, even though it is not always correct.
The only move I made Monday was to sell Boeing. In the overall market, there wasn’t too much bearish
action today. In fact, advancing stocks
outpaced declining stocks; advancing volume was well ahead of declining volume;
and there were 127 new-highs and only 19 new lows. The surprise was that the
S&P 500 closed lower.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in leveraged positions if warranted. I don’t want to see the S&P 500 fall much lower.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile.
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
My Cmt: Hey Donald! Obama’s not the President. Apparently, Biden isn’t the only senile candidate.
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.1% to 5118.
-VIX rose about 3% to 15.23.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.098%.
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
The S&P 500 closed on its lower trend line today. It has been there before. Since 17 January, the Index has closed on its lower trendline 6 times. The trendline slopes upward so the Index has advanced about 8% since then; this is not a bear or bull sign. But we don’t want to see the index break significantly below it’s lower trendline. That would be bad news. Breadth remains in good shape so it seems more likely that markets will move higher not lower. Another possibility is that markets stall for a while and allow the 200-dMA catch up to the S&P 500.
Now there are 8 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Friday, there were 8 bear-signs and 16 bull-signs.
- The S&P 500 is 12.3% above its 200-dMA. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective 200-dMA, today, 3/11/2024. That’s too bullish, so it’s a bearish indicator. This indicator will be extended for a week.
I remain cautiously bullish, but I will take profits in leveraged positions if warranted. I don’t want to see the S&P 500 fall much lower.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
