Leading Economic Index ... Philadelphia Fed ... Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
BIDEN’S EV MANDATE (WSJ)
“Biden officials are stressing that the new auto greenhouse gas emissions standards they rolled out on Wednesday aren’t an electric-vehicle mandate. But the liberal press and climate lobby don’t buy it, and neither should Americans... gas-powered cars can make up no more than 30% of auto sales by 2032. Make no mistake: This is a coerced phase-out of gas-powered cars... The only “choice” Americans will have in the future is electric... Donald Trump was right when he pointed out last weekend that President Biden’s EV mandate will do great harm to the U.S. auto industry. But the Biden White House is determined to remake the industry, no matter the damage.” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-electric-vehicle-mandate-gas-powered-cars-2032-epa-c2a72414?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
 
DEMOCRATS TURN AGANST ISRAEL (WSJ)
“The joke around Jerusalem is that while Mr. Biden once worked to help Israel after Oct. 7, he’s now working on the “two-state solution”: Michigan and Nevada. Israelis notice that the President rarely speaks of defeating Hamas anymore. Instead, he bashes Israel under the cover of bashing its Prime Minister... At present the U.S. doesn’t appear willing to help Ukraine stave off defeat or Israel clinch victory. The world is watching, and the key for the Middle East isn’t to see that Israel can compromise with the Palestinians, but that it can carry U.S. support all the way to victory against Iran-backed terrorism.” Editorial Board , WSJ. Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/joe-biden-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-hamas-michigan-nevada-af0cccaa
 
PHILADELPHIA FED MANUFACTURING (MorningStar)
“Factory activity in the Philadelphia area expanded for a second-straight month, albeit at a slower pace, reflecting a potential modest rebound in the manufacturing sector. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's index for current general activity was 3.2, it said Thursday, down from a positive reading of 5.2 in February, but above expectations...” Story at...
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202403215621/philadelphia-district-factory-activity-expands-again-philadelphia-fed
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans signing up for unemployment benefits fell slightly last week, another sign that the labor market remains strong and most workers enjoy extraordinary job security. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims dipped by 2,000 to 210,000.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-claims-benefits-layoffs-jobs-economy-e57c4a244554722ef4b5707156c096dd
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX (Conference Board)
“The U.S. LEI rose in February 2024 for the first time since February 2022,” said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. ... Despite February’s increase, the Index still suggests some headwinds to growth going forward. The Conference Board expects annualized US GDP growth to slow over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period, as rising consumer debt and elevated interest rates weigh on consumer spending.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales surged 9.5% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million, the largest monthly increase since February 2023. Sales declined 3.3% from the previous year.” Report at...
https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-vaulted-9-5-in-february-largest-monthly-increase-in-a-year
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 5242.
-VIX declined about 0.9% to 12.92.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.269%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators moved more to the Bull side. “Looking good, Billy Ray!  Feeling good, Louis!” 
 
The Long Term Indicator ensemble has been Hold for a while.  That is not a concern.  This indicator ensemble is designed to call turning points at bottoms or tops. In the middle it may not be telling us much.
 
Broken record here: The S&P 500 remains stretched and is now 14.1% above its 200-dMA. The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day, but I don’t trade one signal – we care more about the ensemble. Bollinger Bands were overbought today (again), but RSI was not so I’ll ignore the Bollinger Band signal for now.
 
15.6% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high today, 19 March 2024. The 5-year average was for this stat is about 6.7% so today’s number is very good. Low numbers indicate poor breadth and can portend corrections greater than 10%.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 5 bear-signs and 19-Bull. Wednesday, there were 8 bear-signs and 17 bull. Here are a few of the significant indicators.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
My rules say I am supposed to sell an issue that falls out of the  top 3 in Percentile Rank.  XLK is in 4^th place based on Momentum. That would now mean selling XLK. I will remain patient a little longer. Still, the gain in the last 40-days (below) shows other ETFs with better gains.
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel and it has been a disappointment. Serves me right!  Now, Salesforce (CRM) has fallen out of the top 3. It is an AI play so it is not clear that selling it is the best move.  I’ll wait a bit longer.
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.