New Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
NEW HOME SALES (ABC News)
“New home sales ticked up in January, despite a twin burden imposed by elevated mortgage rates and expensive housing prices, according to U.S. Census data released on Monday. Sales of new single-family homes rose 1.8% in January compared to the previous year...” Story at...
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/new-home-sales-ticked-january-despite-elevated-mortgage/story?id=107542860
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.4%  to 5070.
-VIX was unchanged at 13.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.281%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  It closed at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There’s not much new today. New Bear-indicators were: Short-term new-high/new-low data; McClellan Oscillator; and the slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs. The Utility spread was a new Bull indicator.
 
The Indicator Summary is bullish, but not overly so.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 8 bear-signs and 14-Bull. Friday there were 7 bear-signs and 16-Bull signs.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
The Summary of Indicators was somewhat less bullish today. I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.