GDP ... CRUDE INVENTORIES ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“When we talk about the children of the community, they are a children of the community... 
...It is time for us to do what we have been doing, and that time is every day... 
...The significance of the passage of time, right? The significance of the passage of time. So when you think about it, there is great significance to the passage of time...
...So Ukraine is a country in Europe. It exists next to another country called Russia. Russia is a bigger country. Russia is a powerful country. Russia decided to invade a smaller country called Ukraine. So, basically, that’s wrong.” – Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States, as published by "The Telegraph," a British Newspaper. 
 
“Paul Krugman, 2008 recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and New York Times columnist, wrote on Jan 9 that continued public negativity around the economy is due to MAGA’s anger that Trump isn’t president.” From...
MAGA to Blame for Belief That the Economy is Bad, Nobel-Winning Economist Argues (msn.com)
My cmt: Nope.  The economy is fine and may be running too hot.  The public negativity is due to inflation. While inflation is lower than it was last year, that just means that prices are going up more slowly. If all were well, no amount of MAGA whining would convince the public otherwise.
 
GDP-2ND ESTIMATE (AP News)
“The U.S. economy grew at a robust 3.2% annual pace from October through December, propelled by healthy consumer spending, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in a slight downgrade from its initial estimate.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/economy-inflation-federal-reserve-gdp-unemployment-22f096fe881d4a48314c67d6f4cc67ba
 
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 447.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Story at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5070.
-VIX rose about 3% to 13.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.266%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
 
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce reported and beat on earnings and revenue, but their guidance for 2024 was light so CRM dipped about 2% in afterhours trading on Wednesday.
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  It closed at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 is 12.2% above its 200-day moving average (200-dMA).  That remains stretched and may limit the rally until the 200-dMA can “catch-up.” So, it would not be surprising to see some sideways movement in the Index. There are not too many concerning issues in the markets now, at least when we review the indicators, so a major decline is unlikely.  The Summary of 50-Indicators improved somewhat today.  Always a good sign. New-highs are trending higher and that’s a good sign too; the trend remains up.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 6 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Tuesday there were 8 bear-signs and 14-Bull signs.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
 
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.