Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“A man who can't even be held responsible for mishandling classified information properly has absolutely no business occupying the Oval Office.” – House  GOP Tweet on “X”.
My cmt: Hmmmmm...Are they talking about Biden? Trump? or both?
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund
 
“The Demographic sweet spot says the secular bull market could last until 2035.” – Chris and Kathy Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital Management.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.1% to 5022.
-VIX rose about 8% to 13.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.179%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Friday Summary of indicators (about 50-indicators) improved today and now is 3 to 1 Bull indicators.
 
The S&P 500 is still >12% above its 200-dMA, 12.4% to be more exact. It would be good to see some more days like today where the S&P 500 is down a little or close to flat.  That would give the rising 200-dMA time to catch up a little and cancel the most significant worry now. When the Index is more than 12% above its 200-dMMA it is a sign that markets are stretched and may be more likely to undergo weakness. Still, I am not predicting weakness now – most indicators look good.
 
The daily spread of 20 short-term Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained +3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +22 to +16. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined to HOLD: PRICE are bullish; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral. – It’s been bouncing back and forth so it’s still close to BUY.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.