Consumer Confidence ... Durable Orders ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The reality is Donald Trump, everything he touches does die. Everything he has tried to put in place does not work,” he said. “The RNC is now going to be controlled by his daughter-in-law, basically... It’s how you grind yourself down as a national party into the dust of nothing.” - Michael Steele, former Chair, Republican National Committee. 
 
"[Trump’s visit to the border] has nothing to offer Eagle Pass, and Eagle Pass has nothing to gain from it. Not welcome here and you know it. Not a leader but a loser. Not a president, but a contender. Not a rebel but a threat. Not a friend but an enemy. Not a patriot but a traitor. Eagle Pass deserves better. Maverick County deserves better. Texas deserves better. America deserves better. We deserve better." - Eagle Pass Border Coalition, Eagle Pass Texas, in recent Facebook post.
 
“The Border Patrol Union on Monday ridiculed President Biden’s planned visit to the border this week as a cynical ploy to save his presidency at the expense of Americans’ safety.” Story at... 
Border Patrol Union slams Biden border visit as ‘too little, too late’ just to 'try to save himself' (msn.com)
 
“Seems like someone is starting 2024 hangry. You and your lawyers have had the J6 cmttee materials plus the grand jury info & much more for months. Lying about the evidence in all caps won’t change the facts. A public trial will show it all.” –Liz Cheney, former Republican Representative from Wyoming, denying Trump’s claim she destroyed evidence.
 
DURABLE ORDERS (YahooFinance)
"Orders for long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods fell by the most in nearly four years in January, while business investment on equipment appeared to have eased, signs that the economy lost momentum at the start of the year... Orders for durable goods, items ranging from toasters to aircraft meant to last three years or more, plunged 6.1% last month..." Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-durable-goods-orders-fall-135342448.html
 
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (Conference Board)
“The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in February to 106.7 (1985=100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains... “The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy,” said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board.” Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 5078.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 13.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.303%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
 
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of support around the 200 level.  It closed at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
More than half of issues on the NYSE have been up on all time frames that I track (150, 100, 50, and 10-days). This shows that the rally continues to be broad and makes me optimistic that the rally will continue.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 8 bear-signs and 13-Bull. Monday there were 8 bear-signs and 14-Bull signs.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
The Summary of Indicators was slightly less bullish today. I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The DOW added Amazon to the Dow 30. I’ll add it, but it’s a time consuming effort and may take awhile. Walmart split 3 for 1 today and that took some manipulation in the momentum ranking, too.
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.