Leading Economic Indicators ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund
 
“Here, despite the false financial statements, it is undisputed that defendants have made all required payments on time; the next group of lenders to receive bogus statements might not be so lucky. New York means business in combating business fraud... As an ancient maxim has it, de minimis non curat lex, the law is not concerned with trifles. Neither is this Court, But that is not what we have here. The frauds found here leap off the page and shock the conscience." - Judge Arthur Engoron, in his ruling on Trump fraud in NY.”

My cmt: One strange trial fact.  According to the WSJ, there was no testimony that interest rates for bank loans would have been higher had the values of Trump’s holdings been given truthfully. That get’s back to the Trump-Team claim that there was no fraud. I’ve never understood this case.  

 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board via prnewswire)
“The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.4 percent in January 2024 to 102.7 (2016=100)..."The U.S. LEI fell further in January, as weekly hours worked in manufacturing continued to decline and the yield spread remained negative," said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board. "While the declining LEI continues to signal headwinds to economic activity, for the first time in the past two years, six out of its ten components were positive contributors over the past six-month period (ending in January 2024). As a result, the leading index currently does not signal recession ahead. While no longer forecasting a recession in 2024, we do expect real GDP growth to slow to near zero percent over Q2 and Q3." Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-conference-board-leading-economic-index-lei-for-the-us-declined-further-in-january-302066137.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.6% to 4976.
-VIX rose about 8% to 15.42.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.277%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s declines pushed the S&P 500 to hit its lower short-term trendline while other signs were reasonably bullish. I added leveraged QQQ (QLD-ETF) to the trading portfolio. This seems like a decent bet Tuesday.
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Now there are 7 bear-signs and 12-Bull. This indicator deteriorated a little between mid-day and the close, so it is not as bullish as it had been when I bought QLD. Still, I think the trade will work out.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, SENTIMENT, PRICE & VIX are neutral.
 
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.