CPI Revisions ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
CPI REVISIONS (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. monthly consumer prices rose less than initially estimated in December, revised government data showed on Friday. The consumer price index rose 0.2% in December instead of 0.3% as reported last month, annual revisions of the CPI data published by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed. But data for November was revised up to show the CPI increasing 0.2% rather than 0.1% as previously estimated.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/revised-us-december-cpi-gives-142214685.html
 
GOP SELF SABOTAGE (WSJ)
“Watching Republican lawmakers sit idle as border havoc grows is a bit like watching the DC Universe dawdle as it waits for Superman to save the day. Only Donald Trump never wore tights, and the border is now kryptonite. Sen. James Lankford (R., Okla.) this weekend unveiled the most substantive policy improvements to border security in a century... There was a day when Republicans would have jumped on such border restrictions... Mr. Trump will inherit a problem that could well be insoluble without the sort of enforcement tools Congress is debating now. Here’s the catch: While they could pass now, they won’t under his watch. Should Mr. Trump win, Democrats will immediately oppose them, making it impossible to win the 60 Senate votes necessary to overcome a filibuster... Mr. Trump is doing neither himself nor his party any favors in deep-sixing his best shot at fulfilling the core GOP promise of border security.” – Kimberley Strassel, WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-gops-border-self-sabotage-immigration-c21d88c5?mod=opinion_recentauth_pos2
My cmt: Yup. If Republicans win the Senate with a veto proof majority; retain the House; and win the Presidency, they can go on offense on the Border Bill. Now, they should kick the field goal. As John Madden said, “You can't win a game if you don't score any points.” 
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5027.
-VIX rose about 1% to 12.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.177%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time being.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We look at a Summary of indicators on Friday (about 50-indicators). These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily. The weekly rundown of indicators remained Bullish this week: now 7-bear and 15-bull.
 
BULL SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 22 Jan.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-There was a high up-volume day on 21 December canceling the High down-volume day on 20 December. In addition, there were back-to-back, high up-volume days (80%+) on the NYSE 13 & 14 Dec.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF).
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The short-term momentum is bullish.
-60% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
 
NEUTRAL
-There have been 2 Distribution Days since 19 Jan, but not enough to send a signal.
-There have been 2 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment. (Sentiment got very bearish recently due to the continued march higher. Too much bearishness is bullish, but it is back to neutral now.)
-Bollinger Bands.
-The Bollinger Squeeze has cleared.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50% for more than 3 days in a row.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500.
-6% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 2 February 2024. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-There was a New-high/New-low spread reversal on 4 October (based on std deviation of spread). Expired
-There have been 14 up-days over the last 20 sessions.
-There have been 7 up-days over the last 10 sessions.
-RSI.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a top warning signal 15 Sept., but it may well have been a bottom signal. - Expired
-VIX indicator.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 6 Feb 2024 – expired. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive 9 February.
-20 December there was a Bearish Outside Reversal Day, but the S&P 500 closed above the high for 20 December, 4778, on 27 & 28 December so this one is now neutral.
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 3 November. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator turned negative ending this signal.
 
BEAR SIGNS
-The S&P 500 is 12.5% above its 200-dMA. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bearish crossover 12 January.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure.
-My Money Trend indicator.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) vs the S&P 500.
 
On Monday’s update of the Friday Summary of indicators (20 December 2021), 9 days before the top of the 2-year long 25% correction, there were 21 bear-signs and zero bull-signs. Now there are 7 bear-signs and 15-Bull. Last week, there were 5 bear-sign and 18 bull-signs.
 
The daily spread of 20 short-term Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from +4 to +1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +23 to +20. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are bullish; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(One warning: The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.  I am closely watching indicators.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting continuation of bullish market action.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.