“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Supreme Court hears 14th amendment challenge to Trump.” —
Michael Ramirez political commentary at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-a-question-of-ballot?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&open=false
“Scientists have used artificial intelligence to overcome a huge challenge
for producing near-limitless clean energy with nuclear fusion. A team from
Princeton University in the US figured out a way to use an AI model to predict
and prevent instabilities with plasma during fusion reactions.” – “The Independent” via msn.
AI
solves nuclear fusion puzzle for near-limitless clean energy (msn.com)
“A Russian military blogger has died in an apparent
suicide after facing a barrage of criticism for revealing heavy losses in Ukraine, and his supporters have blamed Kremlin
propagandists for his death.” – AP News at...
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-blogger-3fccc68864df7d7f4e0197ca98582b66
My cmt: Another Russian death by “suicide.”
"I've been a senator since ‘72. I've served with
real racists. I've served with Strom Thurmond. I've served with all these guys
that have set terrible records on race. But guess what? These guys [Republicans]
are worse. These guys do not believe in basic democratic principles." – President
Joe, “The Uniter,” Biden in hyperbolic mode once again.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 2pts. to 5089.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 13.75.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.248%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
BA – Added 12/6/2023. I plan to hold Boeing for the time
being, although my patience is running out! Technically, there is a lot of
support around the 200 level. It closed
at 201.5 on 2/22/2024. If Boeing drops below 200 it will be time to bail out.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Small Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Listing the detailed “Friday Summary of Indicators” was a
time-consuming chore, and now that the Summary is automated, I am going to give
the totals and list some of the interesting indicators rather than give a
detailed list.
On the BULL side:
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 23
Feb.
-65% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the
last 10-days. (45-55% is neutral.)
NEUTRAL indicators include:
-9.6% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week
highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 15 February 2024. (There
is no bullish signal for this indicator, but this is a good, higher than
average number that reinforces the notion that breadth is improving.)
-Bollinger
Bands.
-Sentiment. (Sentiment is neutral, but it is climbing
fast and may switch to Bearish if the trend continues.)
The most significant BEAR signs are:
-The S&P 500 is 13% above its 200-dMA. Markets are
getting stretched. (The Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
- All the ETFs I track were above their respective
200-dMA, yesterday, 2/23. This indicator will be extended for a week.
Now there are 7 bear-signs and 16-Bull. Last week,
there were 6 bear-sign and 13 bull-signs.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE was positive; VOLUME, SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
The Summary of Indicators was somewhat more bullish this
week. I remain cautiously bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals
is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not
be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge
from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
