“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"On political corruption, we are going to restore
honor to our government. In my administration, I am going to enforce all laws concerning
the protection of classified information. No one will be above the law," -
Donald Trump, during his campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on August
18, 2016.
My cmt: Yes, that is really what he said as fact checked by Snopes and CNN.
TRUMP CAN’T WIN: KOCH ADS TARGET TRUMP (CNBC)
“The political network financed largely by billionaire Charles Koch is launching a wave of digital ads targeting former President Donald Trump. The ads argue that if Trump becomes the Republican nominee next year, it will lead to President Joe Biden winning reelection... ‘We made clear in February that Washington is broken and our country is in a downward spiral because of it. To write a new chapter for the country, we need to turn the page on the past – and that requires new leadership.’” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/12/koch-network-ads-target-trump-biden.html
Maybe, but a lot of us thought he couldn’t win in 2016. While I suspect he has lost a lot of votes since 2020, Biden is so bad...
CPI / CORE CPI (CNBC)
“The consumer price index, which measures changes in a multitude of goods and services, increased just 0.1% for the month, bringing the annual level down to 4%. That 12-month increase was the smallest since March 2021, when inflation was just beginning to rise to what would become the highest in 41 years...core inflation rose 0.4% on the month and was still up 5.3% from a year ago, indicating that while price pressures have eased somewhat, consumers are still under fire.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/cpi-inflation-report-may-2023-.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 4369.
-VIX declined about 3% to 14.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.804%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.9%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 362-days.
The S&P 500 is 9.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
IWM – Russell 2000.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. XLE tested its March low on 16 May on lower volume so I continue to hold it.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12
May.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market
retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Some top indicators are closer to issuing a warning (Bollinger Bands, RSI, etc.). My Money Trend indicator and my indicator that compares S&P 500 to Breadth are already warning of a short-term top. The S&P 500 is at its top trend line, or close to it, depending on the scales used when drawing the charts. All of this suggests that we could see a short-term top soon. Clarifying the term “short-term top,” I am expecting a 3-5% normal reversal to the lower trend line and not a significant correction that some are predicting.
The FED will conclude its June meeting tomorrow. Expect
no change in rates. If there is a rate
hike, we’ll see a selloff.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped
from +8 to +7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +32 to +45.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
My cmt: Yes, that is really what he said as fact checked by Snopes and CNN.
“The political network financed largely by billionaire Charles Koch is launching a wave of digital ads targeting former President Donald Trump. The ads argue that if Trump becomes the Republican nominee next year, it will lead to President Joe Biden winning reelection... ‘We made clear in February that Washington is broken and our country is in a downward spiral because of it. To write a new chapter for the country, we need to turn the page on the past – and that requires new leadership.’” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/12/koch-network-ads-target-trump-biden.html
Maybe, but a lot of us thought he couldn’t win in 2016. While I suspect he has lost a lot of votes since 2020, Biden is so bad...
“The consumer price index, which measures changes in a multitude of goods and services, increased just 0.1% for the month, bringing the annual level down to 4%. That 12-month increase was the smallest since March 2021, when inflation was just beginning to rise to what would become the highest in 41 years...core inflation rose 0.4% on the month and was still up 5.3% from a year ago, indicating that while price pressures have eased somewhat, consumers are still under fire.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/13/cpi-inflation-report-may-2023-.html
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 4369.
-VIX declined about 3% to 14.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.804%.
-Drop from Top: 8.9%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 362-days.
The S&P 500 is 9.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. XLE tested its March low on 16 May on lower volume so I continue to hold it.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
Some top indicators are closer to issuing a warning (Bollinger Bands, RSI, etc.). My Money Trend indicator and my indicator that compares S&P 500 to Breadth are already warning of a short-term top. The S&P 500 is at its top trend line, or close to it, depending on the scales used when drawing the charts. All of this suggests that we could see a short-term top soon. Clarifying the term “short-term top,” I am expecting a 3-5% normal reversal to the lower trend line and not a significant correction that some are predicting.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
