“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
EIA CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 453.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are approximately 1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
ANNUAL ENERGY OUTLOOK (EIA)
“High international demand leads to continued growth in U.S. production, and combined with relatively little growth in domestic consumption, allows the United States to remain a net exporter of petroleum products and natural gas through 2050 in all AEO2023 cases. Despite no significant change in the domestic consumption of petroleum and other liquids through 2040 across most AEO2023 cases, we expect U.S. production to remain at historically high volumes. Domestic natural gas consumption also remains relatively stable, despite a shift in electricity generation towards renewables. Production of natural gas, however, continues to grow in response to international demand for liquefied natural gas.” Press release at...
https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press529.php
CHEVROLET JUST KILLED THE 40,000 SILVERADO ELECTRIC TRUCK
(msn.com)
“...the forthcoming 2024 Silverado electric truck... starting price for the Work Truck, or WT version [was]... $40,000.
...But now, Chevrolet has announced its WT EV pricing. The starting price is radically higher than stated in the original hype since its reveal in January 2022. In fact, the price has almost doubled. Now, the base price for the Silverado 3WT is $74,800.” Story at...
Chevrolet Just Killed the $40,000 Silverado Electric Truck (msn.com)
FORD LOSES NEARLY 60,000 FOR EVERY ELECTRIC VEHICLE SOLD
(The Street.com)
“Ford (F) only delivered 12,000 electric vehicles in the first quarter, which means that the carmaker lost $58,333 for each clean car sold during this period... Last month, the Blue Oval said it expects an operating loss of $3 billion for Ford Model e this year.”
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/ford-loses-nearly-60000-for-every-electric-vehicle-sold
Don’t worry. We taxpayers have loaned Ford 3-billion dollars to build a battery plant.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dipped about 1 point to 4377.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 13.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.713%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 372-days.
The S&P 500 is 9.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.8% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 &
12 May.
I’ll probably sell this position – it has been very weak recently. But I forgot to! In my defense - it is a small position. On the positive side, it has not breached its recent low around 36.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell
SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much change from yesterday – I still am expecting a decline toward the 50-dMA.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from -2 to -5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -13 to -25.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a
decline of another 2-3% on the S&P 500.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals slipped to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 453.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are approximately 1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
“High international demand leads to continued growth in U.S. production, and combined with relatively little growth in domestic consumption, allows the United States to remain a net exporter of petroleum products and natural gas through 2050 in all AEO2023 cases. Despite no significant change in the domestic consumption of petroleum and other liquids through 2040 across most AEO2023 cases, we expect U.S. production to remain at historically high volumes. Domestic natural gas consumption also remains relatively stable, despite a shift in electricity generation towards renewables. Production of natural gas, however, continues to grow in response to international demand for liquefied natural gas.” Press release at...
https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press529.php
“...the forthcoming 2024 Silverado electric truck... starting price for the Work Truck, or WT version [was]... $40,000.
...But now, Chevrolet has announced its WT EV pricing. The starting price is radically higher than stated in the original hype since its reveal in January 2022. In fact, the price has almost doubled. Now, the base price for the Silverado 3WT is $74,800.” Story at...
Chevrolet Just Killed the $40,000 Silverado Electric Truck (msn.com)
“Ford (F) only delivered 12,000 electric vehicles in the first quarter, which means that the carmaker lost $58,333 for each clean car sold during this period... Last month, the Blue Oval said it expects an operating loss of $3 billion for Ford Model e this year.”
https://www.thestreet.com/technology/ford-loses-nearly-60000-for-every-electric-vehicle-sold
Don’t worry. We taxpayers have loaned Ford 3-billion dollars to build a battery plant.
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dipped about 1 point to 4377.
-VIX slipped about 2% to 13.43.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was 3.713%.
-Drop from Top: 8.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 372-days.
The S&P 500 is 9.5% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.8% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
I’ll probably sell this position – it has been very weak recently. But I forgot to! In my defense - it is a small position. On the positive side, it has not breached its recent low around 36.
Not much change from yesterday – I still am expecting a decline toward the 50-dMA.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
