Trump ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
"On political corruption, we are going to restore
honor to our government. In my administration, I am going to enforce all laws concerning
the protection of classified information. No one will be above the law," -
Donald Trump, during his campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on August
18, 2016.
“This is not a case of the Department of
Justice conducting a witch hunt...This would have gone nowhere
had the president just returned the documents, but he jerked them around for a
year and a half... If even half of it is true, then he’s toast. He is not a
victim here. He was totally wrong that he had the right to have those
documents. Those documents are among the most sensitive secrets the country
has.” – Bill Barr, former Attorney General under Trump.
“This is a devastating indictment…Not only is it
powerful, it’s very narrowly tailored. They didn’t throw everything up against
the wall to see what would stick. This really is a rifle shot, and I think it
should be the end of Donald Trump’s political career.” – John Bolton. National
Security Advisor under Trump.
HOW ARE TRUMP AND BIDEN – THE TWO WORST MEN IN AMERICA –
THE FRONT RUNNERS? (NY Post - Excerpt)
“How are these two men the best America has to offer? Joe Biden let
his son Hunter sell their name across the planet, receiving
extravagant sums to “advise” moguls on topics he knew nothing about...“No
wonder they considered
it bribery. Joe Biden’s
patronizing response? “Where’s the money?” Well, the money was paid
to your son, Joe...
...Used to believing that the rules don’t apply to him,
he [Trump] ignored the law and mocked the authorities...Trump admits to taking
the classified documents, and obstructing the government’s efforts to get them
back, claiming he had the ‘right’ to do so even when he didn’t. Why did he take
them? To serve his own ego. To show starstruck Mar-a-Lago guests how important
he used to be. It’s shamefully irresponsible, and so, so petty. He rails
against the indictment, yet would have avoided one had he just given back the
documents. He just couldn’t
concede because everything in Trump’s life is about ‘winning’
or ‘losing,’ not what is right. His actions
with these documents, and on January 6, show how unfit he is to be
president again.
Yet here we are. Two unscrupulous men as the frontrunners
for the highest office in the land. Sleepwalking to a Trump-Biden rematch. What
have we done to offend the gods?” – Editorial Board, NY Post. Commentary at...
https://nypost.com/2023/06/09/how-are-trump-and-biden-the-2024-presidential-frontrunners/
Here’s a horror story. Election year 2024 – Trump is
nominated. Trump & Biden run. Senator Joe Manchin runs as an independent.
No one gets enough electoral votes to win.
The House of Representatives must decide the election. They pick Trump.
STOCKS WOULD PLUMET 20% IF THE BOND MARKET IS RIGHT (MSN)
“The disconnect between equity and bond markets has
widened in recent months, as the two asset classes signal different economic
realities, JPMorgan analysts said in a note on Thursday. But if the
fixed-income market's inflationary outlooks prove right, stocks would face 20%
potential downside.” Commentary at...
Stocks
would plummet 20% if the bond market's expectations pan out, JPMorgan says
(msn.com)
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 4338.
-VIX rose about 9% to 15.01. VIX bounced higher today.
The Options Players may be buying protection in case the Fed is more hawkish
than expected. As we have previously commented, the VIX does not predict direction
of the market (it is usually down, but not always), only the expected size of
moves.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.740%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 9.5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 361-days.
The S&P 500 is 9.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.4%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
IWM – Russell 2000.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. XLE tested its March low on 16
May on lower volume so I continue to hold it.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12
May.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market
retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
We’ve seen some big runs in the stock market over the
last 8 months and that can skew invested percentages as stocks rise. Checking
my % invested over the weekend I find that I am 75%-Stocks; 20%-Bonds and
5%-Cash...so much for a 50-50 retirement portfolio. The reason for the high investment in stocks
is simple: that’s where I want to be after a major market low like we saw in
October. I will become more cautious when the indicators suggest it. I may also
trim stocks when the S&P 500 get’s back to its prior high. On the bullish side, there are some pundits
calling for a big up-year in 2024 and that is certainly a possibility.
As we observed Friday, the S&P 500 broke above its
closing August high (4305), but couldn’t remain there. Pundits on the CNBC
Options Action show were saying the S&P 500 was likely to fail at the
August high. That didn’t happen. Today, Monday, the S&P 500 powered higher
as it pushed above the prior high. Now, the S&P 500 is less than 10% below
its prior all-time high.
Some top indicators are close to issuing a warning
(Bollinger Bands, RSI, etc.) but so far, only my indicator that compares S&P
500 to Breadth is currently warning of a short-term top.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
+8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +21 to +32. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked
Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
