“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“We live in a Constitutional democracy. Everybody,
including the president, is bound by the Constitution and there are limits to
their power...Trump not only had a hard time with limits, he didn’t respect
them. And this is a case where he was told repeatedly that there were limits on
his ability to keep materials and he said, ‘I don’t care.’” - Timothy
Naftali, the former director of the Richard Nixon presidential library
TRUMP INDICTED (CNBC)
“Former President Donald Trump has been indicted on seven federal criminal counts in connection with hundreds of classified government documents he retained at his Florida home after leaving the White House...Trump’s attorney, Jim Trusty, in an interview with CNN, said the charges include false statements, conspiracy to obstruct and willfully retaining documents in violation of the Espionage Act. Trump, who is seeking the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, is the only U.S. president, former or otherwise, ever to be criminally charged.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/08/trump-says-hes-been-indicted-summoned-to-federal-court-in-miami-next-week.html
My cmt: I listened to the right-wing radio guys say that Trump did the same thing Biden and Pence did with classified documents. Not even close...They turned over all documents when requested. Trump turned over a few documents; lied under oath; conspired to hide the remaining documents after he had been subpoenaed; and obstructed the investigation. And the Republicans think this is OK? Un real. I’ll be voting Libertarian if that nut-job gets the nomination. I voted for him last time – I won’t make that mistake again.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4299.
-VIX rose about 1% to 13.83. This may be due to worries over next week’s Fed meeting.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.742%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 10.4%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 359-days.
The S&P 500 is 8.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
IWM – Russell 2000.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. XLE tested its March low on 16 May on lower volume so I continue to hold it.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12
May.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The S&P 500 broke above its closing August high today, but couldn’t remain there. Carter Worth and other pundits on the CNBC Options Action show were saying the S&P 500 was likely to fail at the August high and fall to the lower trend line, now around 4100. That would be a decline of about 4%.
That could happen. I think the markets are more likely to
fall after RSI and other Top indicators give us a warning and I have not seen
that yet. Either way, the Friday summary of indicators is still very bullish so
I don’t expect a big decline. Another possibility is that the Fed will be
dovish next week and markets could bounce higher.
Here’s my weekly review of indicators:
The weekly rundown of indicators remained well to the Bull side (now 2-bear and 18-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.)
BULL SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 19 May.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 26 May.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500, but the trend direction is now up - Bullish.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-57% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
NEUTRAL
-There has been 1 Distribution Day since the Follow-thru day on 2 June.
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row.
-Bollinger Band Squeeze 28 April - expired.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator subsequently turned negative, so this indicator has expired.
-The S&P 500 is 8.1% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 7 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mixed.
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 3 May 2023. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive 18 May. – Expired.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-10 May there was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day – Expired.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF) shows the Index outpacing Utilities, but the trend is down so let’s call this one neutral for now.
BEAR SIGNS
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500. The Index is too far ahead of Breadth.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) has turned down.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 2 bear-signs and 18-Bull. Last week, there were 2 bear-sign and 21
bull-signs.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
+8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +3 to +21. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT is neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a Bull.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
“Former President Donald Trump has been indicted on seven federal criminal counts in connection with hundreds of classified government documents he retained at his Florida home after leaving the White House...Trump’s attorney, Jim Trusty, in an interview with CNN, said the charges include false statements, conspiracy to obstruct and willfully retaining documents in violation of the Espionage Act. Trump, who is seeking the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, is the only U.S. president, former or otherwise, ever to be criminally charged.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/08/trump-says-hes-been-indicted-summoned-to-federal-court-in-miami-next-week.html
My cmt: I listened to the right-wing radio guys say that Trump did the same thing Biden and Pence did with classified documents. Not even close...They turned over all documents when requested. Trump turned over a few documents; lied under oath; conspired to hide the remaining documents after he had been subpoenaed; and obstructed the investigation. And the Republicans think this is OK? Un real. I’ll be voting Libertarian if that nut-job gets the nomination. I voted for him last time – I won’t make that mistake again.
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4299.
-VIX rose about 1% to 13.83. This may be due to worries over next week’s Fed meeting.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.742%.
-Drop from Top: 10.4%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 359-days.
The S&P 500 is 8.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.5% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. XLE tested its March low on 16 May on lower volume so I continue to hold it.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
The S&P 500 broke above its closing August high today, but couldn’t remain there. Carter Worth and other pundits on the CNBC Options Action show were saying the S&P 500 was likely to fail at the August high and fall to the lower trend line, now around 4100. That would be a decline of about 4%.
The weekly rundown of indicators remained well to the Bull side (now 2-bear and 18-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.)
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is rising.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-MACD of the percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) made a bullish crossover 19 May.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is rising.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bullish crossover 26 May.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500, but the trend direction is now up - Bullish.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-57% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
-There has been 1 Distribution Day since the Follow-thru day on 2 June.
-There have been 3 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row.
-Bollinger Band Squeeze 28 April - expired.
-Bollinger Bands.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator subsequently turned negative, so this indicator has expired.
-The S&P 500 is 8.1% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 7 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-RSI
-The Smart Money (late-day action) is mixed.
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 3 May 2023. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive 18 May. – Expired.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-10 May there was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day – Expired.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF) shows the Index outpacing Utilities, but the trend is down so let’s call this one neutral for now.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500. The Index is too far ahead of Breadth.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) has turned down.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
