Housing Starts ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“This is not a circumstance where he [Trump] is the
victim or this is government overreach...He provoked this whole problem
himself. Yes, he’s been the victim of unfair witch hunts in the past. But that
doesn’t obviate the fact that he’s also a fundamentally flawed person who
engages in reckless conduct. And that leads to situations, calamitous
situations like this, which are very destructive and hurt any political cause
he’s associated with... he’s a very petty individual who will always put his
interests ahead of the country’s, his personal gratification of his ego. But
our country can’t be a therapy session for a troubled man like this.” – Bill
Barr, Attorney General under Trump.
My cmt: Remember, Trump forced Bill Barr to resign
because Barr wouldn’t go along with Trump’s claim that the election was rigged
and that Trump actually won.
HOUSING STARTS (YahooFinance)
“New construction surged by 21.7 percent on an unadjusted
basis in May, sailing past economists’ projections that there would be a small
decline.” Story at...
https://news.yahoo.com/home-construction-surges-may-could-171931110.html
OPTIONS EXPIRATION - AMMO FOR THE BEARS (Heritage
Capital)
“I sense that the 2023 high in the major indices hit
intra-day on Friday may be a short-term peak...I am still in the boat where I
have a tough time adding much exposure to the long side. Remember all those
Chicken Little cries about the market falling and the rally being too narrow to
succeed? Well, it really broadened out...The S&P 500 Advance/Decline Line
just made an all-time high. So much for 7 stocks accounting for all of the
return.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/post-expiration-gives-some-ammo-to-bears/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.5% to 4389.
-VIX rose about 3% to 13.88.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.723%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.5%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 366-days.
The S&P 500 is 10.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.8%
ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12
May.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell
SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I trimmed some more stocks today by cutting my 401k
holdings some. This puts me at about 55% in stocks, a conservative, but still bullish
position.
Based on my indicators last week, it looks like the S&P
500 will see a 4-6% drop from the recent high of last Friday over the next few
weeks. That should drop the Index to near the 50-dMA.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
-1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +59 to +57. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator declined
to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
