Friday will be a busy day, so I’ll post Friday’s Blog late
Friday or on Saturday.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (NY Post)
“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week by the most in 20 months, offering an upbeat picture of the labor market that could see the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates to cool demand.” Story at...
https://nypost.com/2023/06/29/jobless-claims-post-biggest-drop-in-20-months/
GDP (CNBC)
“Gross domestic product increased at a 2% annualized pace for the January-through-March period, up from the previous estimate of 1.3%...”Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/29/first-quarter-economic-growth-was-actually-2percent-up-from-1point3percent-first-reported-in-major-gdp-revision.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 5% to 4396.
-VIX rose about 0.8% to 13.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.846%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.3%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 372-days.
The S&P 500 is 9.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 &
12 May.
I haven’t sold yet. On the positive side, it has not breached its recent low around 36.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell
SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Well, so much for a decline. 9 Trading days ago, on 15 June, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Breadth-vs-the-S&P 500 and my Money Trend indicator all suggested a short-term top. The S&P 500 was 4426. For now, that remains the short-term top, while some of the warnings that suggested a decline have waned.
However, I still have warning signs flashing. I think the
most significant one is that Breadth (issues advancing on the NYSE) compared to
the S&P 500 shows that the Index is too far ahead of the market in
general. This usually leads to a decline
of some kind. In this case I expect a
decline toward the 50-dMA. So far, the Index declined to about 3% above the 50-day a couple of days ago. I’d expect it to be within 1%. Will it make it? We’ll see.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -5 to +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -25 to -28.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a
decline of around 3% on the S&P 500.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week by the most in 20 months, offering an upbeat picture of the labor market that could see the Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates to cool demand.” Story at...
https://nypost.com/2023/06/29/jobless-claims-post-biggest-drop-in-20-months/
“Gross domestic product increased at a 2% annualized pace for the January-through-March period, up from the previous estimate of 1.3%...”Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/29/first-quarter-economic-growth-was-actually-2percent-up-from-1point3percent-first-reported-in-major-gdp-revision.html
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 5% to 4396.
-VIX rose about 0.8% to 13.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.846%.
-Drop from Top: 8.3%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 372-days.
The S&P 500 is 9.9% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
I haven’t sold yet. On the positive side, it has not breached its recent low around 36.
Well, so much for a decline. 9 Trading days ago, on 15 June, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Breadth-vs-the-S&P 500 and my Money Trend indicator all suggested a short-term top. The S&P 500 was 4426. For now, that remains the short-term top, while some of the warnings that suggested a decline have waned.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
