Leading Economic Indicators ... Jobless Clams ... Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 

Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS (Conference Board)
“(LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in April... we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.” – Conference Board. Press release at...
https://www.conference-board.org/topics/us-leading-indicators/press/us-lei-june-2023
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (Business Report.com)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits remained elevated last week, potentially another signal that Federal Reserve rate hikes are beginning to cool a surprisingly resilient labor market. There were 264,000 initial jobless claims for the week ending June 17, the same as the previous week’s revised number...” Story at...
https://www.businessreport.com/business/us-initial-jobless-claims-remain-elevated
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (CNBC)
“Sales of previously owned homes were essentially flat in May compared with April, according to the National Association of Realtors.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/22/home-sales-flat-may.html
 
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 463.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are approximately at the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
THE FIVE YEARS ARE UP – THE EARTH IS DOOMED (Washington Examiner)
“It’s all over for us. The climate change crisis is no longer reversible, and all of humanity is doomed.
At least, that is all according to Greta Thunberg and a “top climate scientist” who said that “climate change will wipe out all of humanity unless we stop using fossil fuels over the next five years.” That was tweeted on this day five years ago, meaning today is the final day we have to stop using fossil fuels entirely. But all of this raises a question: Why was some random child propped up as the arbiter of climate change policy in the first place?” Story at...
Why was anyone listening to Greta Thunberg in the first place? (msn.com)
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 4366.
-VIX fell about 2% to 13.20.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.797%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.6%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 368-days.
The S&P 500 is 9.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.4% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
I’ll probably sell this position Friday – it has been very weak recently.
 
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June 2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Holy Breadth Batman! The 10-dMA, 50-dMA and 100-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE all dropped below 50% today. That last happened in October; more worrisome, it also occurred 6-days before the all-time high on the S&P 50 back on 2 January 2022. Back in January 22, the 20-dMA was also below 50%; that is not the case now, so that is one small positive sign.  A few other bearish signs: Breadth MACD is headed down; MACD is close to bearish; my Money Trend is down. As is often the case, the Friday summary of indicators will be interesting.
 
Not all is bad though; VIX is issuing a Buy signal.
 
Based on my indicators last week, it looks like the S&P 500 will see a about a 4% drop from today’s close over the next few weeks. I am suggesting a small decline, because, so far, indicators are not too bearish.  That could always change and today I did see some cracks in the indicators.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined from -5 to -6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from +44 to +30. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral. The indicator can signal a “Buy” at the top because it is designed to call a buy when conditions become good at a bottom; but conditions are good at tops too. I think that we’ll see a better time to buy in the next several weeks.
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull. Let’s see what the Friday rundown of indicators shows.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals slipped to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.