Crude Oil Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

Global Cooling in Vermont?
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
CRUDE OIL INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 459.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are 2% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.4% to 4268.
-VIX also dipped about 0.1% to 13.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.793%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 10.7%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 358-days.
The S&P 500 is 7.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 3.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
 
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. XLE tested its March low on 16 May on lower volume so I continue to hold it.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
 
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12 May.
 
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Most indicators are getting more bullish even though the S&P 500 price has been falling a bit. Futures are down as I write this, but it sure doesn’t look like a pullback is occurring based on the indicators.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained +8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -26 to -14. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY & became more bullish: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT is neutral.
 
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
Bottom line: I remain a Bull and I’ll add to stock holdings this week unless there are more top-signs. If so, I’ll hold off a little for a better buy-point. I’ve been too busy to make any stock market moves so far this week.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF.