Retail Sales ... Jobless Claims ... Philadelphia Fed ... Empire State Manufacturing ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Thanks to new developments that sustain a plasma
reaction much longer than previously thought possible, six distinct approaches
to nuclear fusion — including Magnetized
target fusion and Orbitron — are being built by private companies. Tech expert Jeff Brow says the prototype reactors could
be tested in early 2024.” -
Nuclear
Fusion Breakthroughs Suggest Limitless Energy is Closer Than Expected (msn.com)
In the meantime, we’re wasting billions subsidizing wind
and solar with tax money thanks to incompetent politicians.
RETAIL SALES (CNN)
“Retail sales at stores, online and in restaurants grew
0.3% in May from April, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. That’s
above economists’ expectations of a 0.1% decline...” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/15/economy/us-retail-sales-may/index.html
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“U.S. applications for jobless claims were 262,000 for
the week ending June 10, the Labor Department reported Thursday, more than
analysts were expecting... The claims numbers for the past two weeks are the
highest since October of 2021.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-140978ffe6a95f5a4efa84406d5e9421
PHILADELPHIA FED INDEX (RTT News)
“The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released a
report on Thursday showing regional manufacturing activity contracted at a
modestly faster rate in the month of June.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3370430/philly-fed-index-indicates-continued-contraction-in-june.aspx
EMPIRE STATE MANUFACTURING
“The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general
business-conditions index climbed 38 points in June to 6.6 as business activity
“increased modestly... positive reading indicates expansion or growth in
manufacturing activity...” Story at...
https://www.cnybj.com/ny-manufacturing-index-rises-back-into-positive-territory-in-june/
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (forexlive)
“Industrial production -0.2% versus 0.1%. This was the
largest decline on the year (lowest since December)” More details at...
https://www.forexlive.com/news/us-industrial-production-for-may-02-versus-01-expected-20230615/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 4426.
-VIX rose about 4% to 14.5.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dropped to 3.721%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 7.7%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 364-days.
The S&P 500 is 11.1% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 6% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
IWM – Russell 2000.
MSFT – Microsoft.
“Microsoft shares
climbed to a record Thursday after analysts at JPMorgan
Chase touted the software maker’s growth prospects in
artificial intelligence.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/15/microsoft-stock-hits-record-as-leaders-see-10-billion-in-ai-revenue.html
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. XLE tested its March low on 16
May on lower volume so I continue to hold it.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 & 12
May.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market
retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today was a statistically significant up-day. That just means
that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show
that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of
the time. Statistically-significant,
up-days almost always coincide with tops, but not all statistically-significant,
up-days occur at tops. Today could be the short-term top I have been expecting.
Both RSI and Bollinger Bands were overbought today along with a couple of other
top signs.
If I can find the time tomorrow, I’ll probably trim a few
stocks. At 75% invested I’m too bullish
when it looks like the S&P 500 is headed for about a 4-6% trip down, back
to around the 50-dMA. It probably won’t get to the lower range (6%). Dip buyers
are likely to move in before the Index get’s back to its 50-dMA unless the
market trips on unforeseen news.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) slipped
from +7 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +55 to +65.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive; SENTIMENT & VIX are neutral.
The indicator can signal a “Buy” at the top because it is designed to call a
buy when conditions become good at a bottom; but conditions are good at tops
too.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, but I expect a retreat down toward the S&P 500 lower trend line, now, so I will reduce some stocks. There's a reminder: short-term trading is a loser's game. While I may trim some stocks to reduce risk, I may not come out ahead if I buy more stocks later.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’ll cut back some now to reduce risk.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
