“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
LOOKOUT – JANE FONDA SENT ME ON ANOTHER GLOBAL WARMING
RANT!
“We’ve got about seven, eight years to cut ourselves in half of what we use of fossil fuels, and unfortunately, the people that have the least responsibility for it are hit the hardest ...We have to arrest and jail those men — they’re all men [behind this]... White men are the things that matter, and then everything else [is] at the bottom.... There’d be no climate crisis if it wasn’t for racism.” – Jane Fonda
...Jane Fonda has apologized numerous times for the actions that earned her the nickname “Hanoi Jane” during the Vietnam War. Maybe if she lives another 50-years she’ll apologize for her Global-Warming-lunacy.
My cmt: The Earth’s temperature has risen 1 degree
centigrade in the last 100 years. It doesn’t
seem likely that we have only 7 or 8 years to cut fossil fuel use in half, especially
since we are hearing this from global know-it-all, Jane Fonda.
If Global Warming is an existential threat, it can be
easily reversed by increasing the Earth’s albedo. “It appears that
stratospheric aerosol injection, at a moderate intensity, could counter most
changes to temperature and precipitation, take effect rapidly, have low direct
implementation costs, and be reversible in its direct climatic effects.” - Climate
Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press.
I expect my Grandchildren will not have to worry about man-made climate change. If the promise of safe, cheap energy from nuclear fusion is borne out, we’ll be able to reverse global warming attributable to CO2 in the relatively near future. Technologies now exist to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Unfortunately, that won’t stop non-manmade global warming – the last Ice Age was 12,000 years ago and the Earth has been warming since then – Sorry Greta, sea-level rise will continue.
And BTW, climate change is not causing fires in Canada.
If increased temperatures were the cause of fires, wouldn’t we be having more
forest fires where it is warmer than Canada – say, southern forests in the
Virginias, Tennessee, Georgia, etc.? As stated in “Unsettled – What Climate
Science Tells us, What it Doesn’t, and Why it Matters” by Steven Koonin,
PhD, the actual numbers show fewer fires in more recent decades, not more. (Remember, climate is defined in 30-year
slices by the IPCC. These one-year events are weather – not climate.) Man-made,
Global warming is real, but I get very tired of every anomaly being blamed on
Global Warming. (The latest was mountain landslides, but I’ll save that one for
another rant.)
My apologies to those who wanted to read a Financial
Blog.
PERSONAL INCOME (Advisor Perspectives)
“Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in May and is up 5.5% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and 1.6% year-over-year...” [It is believed that the NBER Bases its recession decisions on the Big Four: Retail sales, Industrial production, Employment and Real income] Here is a percent-off-high chart based on an average of the big four. The average set a new all-time high in November of 2018 [recessions in grey].”
Chart and analysis at
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/30/personal-income-big-four-economic-indicators-rises-may?topic=covid-19-coronavirus-coverage
PCE PRICES / / PERSONAL SPENDING (Reuters)
“U.S. consumer spending fizzled in May as households cut back on purchases of new light trucks and other long-lasting manufactured goods amid higher borrowing costs, suggesting the economy lost some speed in the second quarter...underlying price pressures remained too strong to discourage the Federal Reserve from returning to its strategy of raising interest rates in July, economists said... Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index climbed 0.3% after rising 0.4% in the prior month. The so-called core PCE price index increased 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in May after advancing 4.7% in April.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-spending-edges-up-may-inflation-still-high-2023-06-30/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 4450.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 13.59. (The Options Players may not be so sanguine about the rally.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.836%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 7.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 374-days.
The S&P 500 is 11.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.3% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
MSFT – Microsoft.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a very small position
for me. KRE tested the May 4 low of 36.08 on much lower volume 11 &
12 May.
I haven’t sold yet. On the positive side, it has not breached its recent low around 36.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 5.04% - 9 June
2023. (Trailing 1-year yield is 3.04%.) Once this weak period ends, I’ll sell
SHY and buy stocks/stock ETFs.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
10 Trading days ago, on 15 June, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Breadth-vs-the-S&P 500 and my Money Trend indicator all suggested a short-term top and it was a statistically significant up-day. The S&P 500 was 4426.
After a 2-week, weak period the S&P 500 has shrugged
off its malaise and again climbed to its upper trend line (going back to the
October lows) and closed slightly higher at 4450.
Today, Friday was another statistically significant up-day.
That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a
down-day about 60% of the time. Tops almost
always occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all
statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term
top, but, unlike 2-weeks ago, there are now only 2 top indicators that are
bearish and that is not a strong top signal. If the markets continue to make
big moves up next week, we’ll see more weakness in the markets. We could still
see a pullback, or alternatively, the Index may crawl along the upper
trend-line for a while longer.
The S&P 500 remains stretched too far ahead of
breadth, so I still expect weakness in the Index. The catch is, this one
indicator alone is not enough to call a top and the Friday summary of
Indicators has improved a lot.
This above discussion helps explain why I have pointed
out that short-term trading is a fool’s game. Mr. Market doesn’t always follow
indicators – mine or anyone else’s, especially when we are projecting a small pullback.
Here’s my weekly review of indicators:
The weekly rundown of indicators reversed to the Bull side (now 8-bear and 14-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.)
BULL SIGNS
-Today (30 June) was a Follow-thru day that cancels prior Distribution Days.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF) shows the Index outpacing Utilities.
NEUTRAL
-There have been 1 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Band Squeeze 28 April - expired.
-Bollinger Bands.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator subsequently turned negative, so this indicator has expired.
-The S&P 500 is 11.2% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 4 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is neutral.
-RSI
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 3 May 2023. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive 18 May. – Expired.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-10 May there was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day – Expired.
BEAR SIGNS
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500. The Index is too far ahead of Breadth.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 26 May
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500; the trend direction is flat to slightly down.
-45% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
On Friday, 21 February, 2 days after the top before the
Coronavirus pullback, there were 10 bear-signs and 1 bull-sign. Now there
are 8 bear-signs and 14-Bull. Last week, there were 13 bear-sign and 8
bull-signs.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
from +4 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -28 to -29.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
BUY: PRICE & VIX are positive; SENTIMENT & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull, expecting a
decline of around 4-5% on the S&P 500 to start soon.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals
remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)
“We’ve got about seven, eight years to cut ourselves in half of what we use of fossil fuels, and unfortunately, the people that have the least responsibility for it are hit the hardest ...We have to arrest and jail those men — they’re all men [behind this]... White men are the things that matter, and then everything else [is] at the bottom.... There’d be no climate crisis if it wasn’t for racism.” – Jane Fonda
...Jane Fonda has apologized numerous times for the actions that earned her the nickname “Hanoi Jane” during the Vietnam War. Maybe if she lives another 50-years she’ll apologize for her Global-Warming-lunacy.
I expect my Grandchildren will not have to worry about man-made climate change. If the promise of safe, cheap energy from nuclear fusion is borne out, we’ll be able to reverse global warming attributable to CO2 in the relatively near future. Technologies now exist to remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Unfortunately, that won’t stop non-manmade global warming – the last Ice Age was 12,000 years ago and the Earth has been warming since then – Sorry Greta, sea-level rise will continue.
“Personal income (excluding transfer receipts) rose 0.4% in May and is up 5.5% year-over-year. However, when adjusted for inflation using the BEA's PCE Price Index, real personal income (excluding transfer receipts) was up 0.3% month-over-month and 1.6% year-over-year...” [It is believed that the NBER Bases its recession decisions on the Big Four: Retail sales, Industrial production, Employment and Real income] Here is a percent-off-high chart based on an average of the big four. The average set a new all-time high in November of 2018 [recessions in grey].”
Chart and analysis at
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2023/06/30/personal-income-big-four-economic-indicators-rises-may?topic=covid-19-coronavirus-coverage
“U.S. consumer spending fizzled in May as households cut back on purchases of new light trucks and other long-lasting manufactured goods amid higher borrowing costs, suggesting the economy lost some speed in the second quarter...underlying price pressures remained too strong to discourage the Federal Reserve from returning to its strategy of raising interest rates in July, economists said... Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the PCE price index climbed 0.3% after rising 0.4% in the prior month. The so-called core PCE price index increased 4.6% on a year-on-year basis in May after advancing 4.7% in April.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-spending-edges-up-may-inflation-still-high-2023-06-30/
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.2% to 4450.
-VIX rose about 0.4% to 13.59. (The Options Players may not be so sanguine about the rally.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.836%.
-Drop from Top: 7.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 374-days.
The S&P 500 is 11.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.3% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
I haven’t sold yet. On the positive side, it has not breached its recent low around 36.
10 Trading days ago, on 15 June, RSI, Bollinger Bands, Breadth-vs-the-S&P 500 and my Money Trend indicator all suggested a short-term top and it was a statistically significant up-day. The S&P 500 was 4426.
The weekly rundown of indicators reversed to the Bull side (now 8-bear and 14-bull). (These indicators tend to be both long-term and short-term, so they are different than the 20 that I report on daily.)
-Today (30 June) was a Follow-thru day that cancels prior Distribution Days.
-The 10-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-The 100-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) is above 50%.
-My Money Trend indicator is rising.
-McClellan Oscillator.
-The long-term, 50-dEMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index.
-Slope of the 40-dMA of New-highs is rising.
-The Smart Money (late-day action).
-On average, the size of up-moves has been larger than the size of down-moves over the last month.
-VIX indicator.
-The 5-10-20 Timer System is BUY.
-The 5-day EMA is above the 10-day EMA so short-term momentum is bullish.
-S&P 500 spread vs. Utilities (XLU-ETF) shows the Index outpacing Utilities.
-There have been 1 Statistically-Significant days (big moves in price-volume) in the last 15-days.
-Sentiment.
-Bollinger Band Squeeze 28 April - expired.
-Bollinger Bands.
-The 50-dMA percentage of issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) has not been below 50%, for more than 3 days in a row.
-Overbought/Oversold Index (Advance/Decline Ratio).
-There was a Zweig Breadth Thrust 31 March. That’s a rare, very-bullish sign, but the McClellan Oscillator subsequently turned negative, so this indicator has expired.
-The S&P 500 is 11.2% above its 200-dMA. (Bear indicator is 12% above the 200-day.)
-The short-term, 10-day EMA, Fosback Hi-Low Logic Index is neutral.
-There have been 4 up-days over the last 10 sessions – neutral.
-There have been 12 up-days over the last 20 sessions - neutral.
-The graph of the 100-day Count (the 100-day sum of up-days) is neutral.
-RSI
-There was a 90% down-volume day 9 March.
-There was a Hindenburg Omen signal 3 May 2023. The McClellan Oscillator turned positive 18 May. – Expired.
-The Calm-before-the-Storm/Panic Indicator flashed a panic-buying signal 10 November - expired.
-2.8% of all issues traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high, 3 January 2022. (There is no bullish signal for this indicator.) This indicated that the advance was too narrow and a correction was likely to be >10%. It proved correct, but is now Expired.
-10 May there was a Bullish Outside Reversal Day – Expired.
-The smoothed advancing volume on the NYSE is falling.
-Issues advancing on the NYSE (Breadth) compared to the S&P 500. The Index is too far ahead of Breadth.
-Smoothed Buying Pressure minus Selling Pressure is falling.
-MACD of S&P 500 price made a bearish crossover 26 May
-Long-term new-high/new-low data.
-Short-term new-high/new-low data.
-XLI-ETF (Cyclical Industrials) is underperforming the S&P 500; the trend direction is flat to slightly down.
-45% of the 15-ETFs that I track have been up over the last 10-days.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
