BIDEN’S BROADBAND BLOWOUT IS A WASTE (WSJ)
“The Broadband Rollout Fiasco” (Review & Outlook, Oct. 5)
is real. Few American households live in areas without access to broadband in
the first place. In its 2021 Broadband Deployment Report, the Federal
Communications Commission found that 99.4% of the U.S. population in 2019 lived
in areas that met the FCC’s broadband definition for either fixed or mobile
services. The remaining 0.6%, roughly 770,000 households, who lacked
access to broadband were mostly in the rural West or Alaska. The 2021
infrastructure law allocated $42.5 billion to areas “unserved” by broadband.
That is more than $55,000 for each unserved household in 2019. Many would have
chosen a check for $50,000 rather than a new government service.” - Harold
Furchtgott-Roth, former FCC commissioner, Hudson Institute. From WSJ Letters at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/biden-broadband-blowout-is-a-waste-cea24907
US TIGHTENS OIL SANCTIONS ON IRAN (WSJ)
“The Biden administration said Friday that it was
tightening sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran’s large-scale ballistic
missile attack on Israel earlier this month.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-tightens-oil-sanctions-on-iran-as-it-seeks-to-contain-israeli-attack-dd983191
My cmt: According to the US Dept of State, Iran has been supporting
“...Hamas and other U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist groups, including
Palestine Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine-General Command.” Why haven’t our sanctions already been maxed out? This
is another example of unbelievable incompetence by our government. Or was it pure politics? Don't put too many sanctions on, so the oil price remains low and Democrats get re-elected - your choice.
NY FED MANUFACTURING (bnnBloomberg)
“New York state factory activity swung back into
contraction territory this month as orders and shipments weakened, consistent
with lackluster manufacturing. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October
general business conditions index slid 23.4 points to a five-month low of minus
11.9, figures issued Tuesday showed... the New York Fed’s
gauge of prices paid for materials increased to a six-month high of 29, while
an index of prices received by state manufacturers also accelerated.” Story
at...
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/10/15/new-york-manufacturing-contracts-as-orders-shipments-weaken/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 5815.
-VIX rose about 5% to 20.64.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.034%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16, but SOLD 2 Oct. (Missed this
move. I expect to buy it back soon)
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs
and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +8 (8 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The NY Fed report that hinted at increasing inflation
came out at 8:30 am Eastern, so today’s fall starting at 10 am is curious. There
was a double-top on the S&P 500 before the fall, so the decline was still
probably due to the NY Fed report.
Overall, today’s Bull-Bear spread of +8 is bullish. The
10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) was flat. I
need to see it break higher before I will commit more funds to the stock
market.
An improvement in the indicators tomorrow will probably
give me that buy-signal since the 10-dMA is flat.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, but still awaiting an upturn in indicators
to add leveraged trading positions.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
THE PURGE IS REAL – INSIDE THE GOP’S 2024 PLAYBOOK TO
DISENFRANCHISE VOTERS (Alternet)
“On Monday, a new lawsuit was dropped on Republican Gov.
Glenn Youngkin from the League of Women Voters in Virginia and immigrant-rights
groups who accuse him and his attorney general, Jason Miyares, of running an
illegal “Purge Program” ahead of November's elections...These last-minute
efforts to kick people off state voter lists aren’t accidental. They’re part of
former President Donald Trump’s strategy to recapture the White House. And it’s
working, at least in some regions.” Story at...
The
Purge is real: Inside the GOP's 2024 playbook to disenfranchise voters
(msn.com)
My cmt: What crap! If there is Russian
disinformation to divide the country, this is what it would look like. Here’s
what Wikipedia says about Alternet: “There is consensus that AlterNet is
generally unreliable. Editors consider AlterNet a partisan source, and its statements should
be attributed.”
Great Scott! The Democrats are working hard to get Donald
Trump elected. See the following:
VIRGINIA GOVERNOR ISSUES STATEMENT:
“Governor Glenn Youngkin, after being notified this
afternoon (Friday) that the Biden-Harris Department of Justice was filing a
lawsuit against the Commonwealth of Virginia, released the following
statement:
"With less than 30 days until the election, the
Biden-Harris Department of Justice is filing an unprecedented lawsuit against
me and the Commonwealth of Virginia, for appropriately enforcing a 2006 law
signed by Democrat Tim Kaine that requires Virginia to remove noncitizens from
the voter rolls - a process that starts with someone declaring themselves a
non-citizen and then registering to vote. Virginians - and Americans - will see
this for exactly what it is: a desperate attempt to attack the legitimacy of
the elections in the Commonwealth, the very crucible of American Democracy.
With the support of our Attorney General, we will defend these commonsense
steps, that we are legally required to take, with every resource available to
us. Virginia’s election will be secure and fair, and I will not stand idly by
as this politically motivated action tries to interfere in our elections,
period." Statement from the Governor’s Office at...
https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/2024/october/name-1035132-en.html
Democrat Terry McCauliff lost the Virginia Gubernatorial
election because during the September 2021 debate McCauliff said, “I don’t
think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” The
Biden-Harris voter lawsuit ranks up there along with McCauliff’s blunder as a
possible election game-changer. Harris has been leading in Virginia by as much
as 11 points. Virginia has not voted Republican in a Presidential election for
20-years (George W. Bush). Perhaps the incompetent Democrats will change that.
WHEN YOUR CAMPAIGN IS FLAGGING, BUY SOME VOTES (Daily
Caller)
“The Harris campaign rolled out its “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” which proposes to give one
million $20,000 loans to black entrepreneurs and “others who have historically
faced barriers to starting a new business or growing an existing business.” The
policy is aligned with the Biden administration’s broad effort to prioritize or otherwise incorporate race
into several major government programs and initiatives, such as its payments to black American farmers who faced
discrimination before 2021 and its Justice40 agenda stipulating that 40% of the benefits of
certain environmental spending and programs flow to “disadvantaged
communities.”
Kamala
Harris Appears To Propose New Race-Based Payments As Support From Black Men
Lags (msn.com)
My cmt: I changed the headline for the above article.
BTW. The Federal Government already has a program to do this referred to as
“8A” (Section 8A under the Small Business Act).
From the Minority Business Development agency: “The
8(a) Business Development Program is a business assistance program for small
disadvantaged businesses. The 8(a) Program offers a broad scope of assistance
to firms that are owned and controlled at least 51% by socially and
economically disadvantaged individuals.” I dealt with it regularly during
my 35-year Government career. We paid more for 8A contracts because they were
negotiated contracts rather than awarded to the lowest bidder.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 5860.
-VIX declined about 4% to 19.7.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury
rose slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.105%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs
and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +6 (6 more Bull
indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +6 is slightly bullish.
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is still
sloping down. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more
funds to the stock market.
As previously noted: The S&P 500 appears to be
breaking out of the descending triangle and that‘s a good sign.
8.7% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today
when the S&P 500 made a new, all-time high.
That’s well above average and this indicates a broad advance and
suggests that if there were a pullback it would be relatively small.
One new Bear sign popped up today – Bollinger Bands are
overbought. As I regularly note, I use Bollinger Bands with RSI. Since RSI is not overbought so I’ll ignore
the Bollinger signal.
I still think that I may get a buy-signal this week. I’ll
post during the trading-day if I make any portfolio moves next week.
It might seem logical to add more stocks/ETFs now, but I
am following my system. I am already
over-invested. I only move to an extreme over-invested position when the
indicators are giving strong, bullish signals. I’ll wait until they do before I
reset leveraged positions.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
PPI (CNBC)
“A measure of wholesale prices showed no change in
September, pointing to a continued easing in inflation, the Labor Department
reported Friday. The producer price index, which measures what producers get for
their goods and services, was flat for the month and up 1.8% from a year ago.” Story
at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/11/producer-price-index-september-2024-.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5815.
-VIX declined about 2% to 20.46.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.096%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs
and 13 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +4 (4 more
Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +4 is Neutral to slightly bullish.
The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is still
sloping down. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more
funds to the stock market.
The S&P 500 appears to be breaking out of the
descending triangle and that‘s a good sign.
Breadth is improving, too. I suspect that I may get a buy
signal early next week. I’ll post during the trading-day if I make any
portfolio moves next week.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
"Yes they can control the weather. It’s ridiculous
for anyone to lie and say it can’t be done." – Marjorie Taylor Greene,
Congresswoman, Georgia (R).
Michael Ramirez. Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“These billion-dollar disasters used to happen once every
three months back in the 1980s. Over the last decade they’ve happened closer to
every three weeks,” says Adam Smith, an applied climatologist at NOAA. “Climate
change is certainly supercharging many of these trends.” Story at...
Hurricane
Milton: How climate change is ‘supercharging’ extreme weather trends | Watch
(msn.com)
My cmt: 80’s? That was 40-years ago. Maybe it has
something to do with more people living in the danger zone and the increased
value of real estate. The following story is closer to the truth.
CLIMATE CHANGE: THE SCIENCE DOESN’T SUPPORT THE HEATED
RHETORIC (Tribune News Service)
“We are constantly reminded that we are experiencing
a climate crisis, but as a climate scientist, I can tell you
that’s not what the science has shown us so far. Other than modest warming,
there has been little change in any kind of severe weather that can be
attributed to global greenhouse gas emissions. You don’t have to take my word
for it, despite my credentials. It’s the conclusion of the U.N.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Its most recent report
concludes that, other than direct temperature-related effects, there have
been virtually no changes in severe weather that we can
confidently attribute to greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil
fuels.” - Roy W. Spencer, PhD, a visiting fellow at The Heritage
Foundation, Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in
Huntsville (UAH). He is the author of “Global Warming: Observations vs. Climate
Models.” Story at...
Commentary:
Climate change: The science doesn’t support the heated rhetoric (msn.com)
“The stock market indices look like they all want to move
higher into year-end, regardless of what happens this month. Since September
2022 my strategy has been to buy weakness. That remains in place today. I
sometimes try to be too cute. Don’t miss out on what could be another solid
quarter.” -Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. Blog at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/does-the-government-manipulate-economic-data/
CPI & JOBLESS CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Both the headline and the core CPI, which excludes food
and energy, came in 0.1 percentage point higher than forecast for the
month, with a 0.2% increase in the headline index and a 0.3% rise for the
core... On an annual basis, the headline index rose 2.4% in September, slightly
less than 2.5% the month before, while the core figure accelerated
for the first time in one and a half years, to 3.3% from 3.2%....
...Weekly jobless claims also came out
Thursday, and showed a much-bigger-than-expected increase of 258,000,
against the median forecast for 230,000. While this was likely affected by the
impact of hurricanes, one market participant said the jump – to the highest
level in more than a year – was hard to ignore.” Story at...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-10-10/us-cpi-report-for-september
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5780.
-VIX rose about 0.3% to 20.93.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.067%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs
and 12 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to +2 (6 more
Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +2 is Neutral so the
markets remain unsettled. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in
the chart above) is still sloping down so we can’t feel too confident
about markets. It’s not that I expect a big downturn, but the indicators are
suggesting that the directionless trend may continue.
The bearish, rising-wedge pattern, shown by the red,
dashed-lines on the above chart, remains in play.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish, still
waiting to see what the indicators tell us.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
"We need to guard that spirit. We have to guard that
spirit. Let it always inspire us. Let it always be the source of our optimism,
which is that spirit that is uniquely American. Let that then inspire us by
helping us to be inspired to solve the problems that so many face, including
our small business owners.” – Kamala Harris, VP at the Economic Club of
Pittsburg. (This was a prepared speech - disappointingly inarticulate.)
“Lyin’ Kamala, who is being exposed as a “dummy” every
time she does a show, just stated to the degenerates on The View that she would
have done nothing different than Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST PRESIDENT IN THE
HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES. The Lamestream Media doesn’t want to pick up the
story, the dumb women on the show wish they never asked her the question that
led to that Election Defying answer, but the Internet is going WILD. For
starters, THE BORDER DISASTER, WITH MURDERERS AND EVERYONE ELSE BEING ALLOWED
TO INVADE OUR COUNTRY, WORST INFLATION IN HISTORY, THE UKRAINE DISASTER,
OCTOBER 7TH WITH ISRAEL, LOSS OF ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, THE AFGHANISTAN DEBACLE,
LOSS OF RESPECT ALL OVER THE GLOBE, AND MUCH MORE! Her dumbest answer so far!” –
Donald Trump posted on “X”.
“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down
education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can
vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions,
repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas
Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and
realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human
stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life,
son." – Vernon Wormer, Dean, Faber College.
HARRIS TRUMP FISCAL IMPACTS (US Budget Watch)
“The next President will face significant fiscal
challenges upon taking office, including record debt levels, large structural
deficits, surging interest payments, and the looming insolvency of critical
trust fund programs.1 Our
large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost
interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy
choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis.
However, neither major candidate running in the 2024
presidential election has put forward a plan to address this rising debt
burden. In fact, our comprehensive analysis of the candidates’ tax and spending
plans finds that both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald
Trump would likely further increase deficits and debt above levels
projected under current law.” Commentary at...
https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in
the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.8 million barrels from the
previous week. At 422.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5792, a new
all-time high.
-VIX declined about 3% to 20.86.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.073%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs
and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators
minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +6 (6 more
Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The daily 50-Indicator Spread improved, but the 10-dMA (purple
line in the chart above) is still sloping down. That’s a bearish sign,
but it was very close to reversing higher. If it does reverse higher, I may be
buying back into my leveraged positions Thursday.
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +6 is mildly positive for
the markets; it would be nice to see it higher.
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today. 5.8% of
issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That is below the 5-year
average for this stat, but it is still high enough that I don’t consider it a
bearish sign.
The bearish, rising-wedge pattern is still in play. I’ve indicated the rising-wedge pattern by a
red, dashed line in the above chart. If the Index breaks above the top of the
triangle and stays there for consecutive days, it would end the bear pattern.
If we see Indicators improve too, it would be a good sign for the markets and
be a buy-signal for me.
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish, still waiting
to see what the indicators tell us.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
"The aid that we have given Israel allowed Israel to
defend itself against 200 ballistic missiles that were just meant to attack the
Israelis and the people of Israel. And when we think about the threat that
Hamas, Hezbollah presents, Iran, I think that it is without any question, our
imperative to do what we can to allow Israel to defend itself against those
kinds of attacks. Now the work we do diplomatically with the leadership of
Israel is an ongoing pursuit around making clear our principles, which include
the need for humanitarian aid, the need for this war to end, the need for a
deal to be done which would release the hostages and create a cease-fire. And
we’re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the
region, including Arab leaders." – VP Kamala Harris, on 60-Minutes,
responding to whether the US has “sway” over Netanyahu.
BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points
in September to 91.5. This is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year
average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading
recorded... “Small business owners are feeling more uncertain than ever,”
said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Uncertainty makes owners
hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation
and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines. Although
some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are
left questioning whether future business conditions will improve.” Press release
at...
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 5751.
-VIX declined about 5% to 21.42. (Typo here yesterday.)
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.014%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 9
Bear-sign and 13-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) improved to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
The 10-dMA is sloping down, a bearish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There was another statistically-significant, up-day today
for the S&P 500. That’s three big
days in a row: up-down-up. That sometimes occurs at tops.
A statistically significant up-day means that the
price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a
statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the
time. Tops almost always occur on
Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant,
up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there were no top
indicators that were bearish, so a significant top seems unlikely.
I didn’t mention it yesterday, but Monday, unchanged
volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator
suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been higher
for awhile and the Index is near its upper trend line (from 5 August). Does
that mean a reversal lower is in the works? I don’t know. Perhaps the best we
can say is that investors are confused. It seems to me that a move higher or
lower is equally likely. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators
because it is often wrong.
Indicators have been declining on a 10-day basis and remain
in a Neutral indication.
The S&P 500 is 1.2% below its all-time high from last
week. If this weakness does develop into a more significant correction, I would
expect that the decline would not exceed 10%, based on numbers we saw at the
all-time high last week. I suspect it is more likely that the decline would
take the Index to its lower trend line (roughly S&P 5675) or perhaps down
another 3.4% to its 50-dMA (5558).
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point waiting to see what the
indicators tell us.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
ASHEVILLE – SAFE FROM NATURAL DISASTERS? (msn.com)
“In online forums discussing where to escape heat, floods
and fire, Asheville consistently comes up. One poster wrote in 2019, they didn’t want “to be in a
place that has constant threat of natural disasters that will destroy our
property so we are planning on moving to (the) Asheville area.” Even the
climate experts who call Asheville home believed they were insulated from the
worst risks. Susan Hassol, a veteran climate change communicator and science
writer, said she and others “have labored under the illusion that we live in a
relatively climate-safe place.” Story at...
People
moved to Asheville to escape extreme weather. They forgot its tragic history.
(msn.com)
My cmt: They lived in the mountains near a river and
didn’t know there was a flood risk. North Carolina publishes FEMA flood maps
for each county that are searchable by address. We have the same service in my
hometown. Everyone should know if they live in a flood zone. A Google search
should be able to find the local flood maps. If not, call your local government
and know your flood zone.
ANOTHER MAJOR HURRICANE PREDICTED TO STRIKE FLORIDA
Hurricane Milton has reached Category 5 strength and the
CNBC pundits were talking about the risks to insurance companies. Only 4 storms
have made a US landfall at Category 5 strength. One of those was Hurricane
Andrew in 1992. I was at the 1993 Hurricane Conference almost a year later.
There was a presentation by the insurance industry where they said that the
most expensive natural disaster of 1992 was not Andrew – it was a deep freeze in
the South that caused massive damage due to frozen pipes and other issues. Curious, but this is a big storm. Milton is
now forecast to weaken to Cat 3 at landfall, still a major, dangerous storm. Let’s
hope that the forecast is correct and Hurricane Milton continues to weaken.
Either way, the storm is likely to cause huge damage. The Tampa area is a lot more populated now than
Dade County was in 1992 where Andrew made landfall.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 1% to 5696.
-VIX rose about 18% to 19.21.
-The yield on the 10-year
Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.028%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 10
Bear-sign and 12-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) declined to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
The 10-dMA is sloping down, a bearish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators declined on Monday and are now in a Neutral
indication. The 10-dMA of indicators continues to decline and that’s a continuing
worry.
Monday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time.
The S&P 500 is 1.2% below its all-time high from last
week. If this weakness does develop into a more significant correction, I would
expect that the decline would not exceed 10%, based on numbers we saw at the
all-time high last week. I suspect it is more likely that the decline would
take the Index to its lower trend line (roughly S&P 5675) or perhaps down
another 2.5% to its 50-dMA (5558).
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point waiting to see what the
indicators tell us.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.