Thursday, October 3, 2024

Jobless Claims ... ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

ANOTHER TRUMP CONSPIRATOR GOES TO PRISON (msn.com)
Tina Peters, a former Colorado Republican county clerk who espoused the false conspiracy theory that former President Donald Trump lost the 2020 election due to ballot fraud, was sentenced Thursday to nine years in prison for crimes related to a breach of her county's voting system.... Peters was convicted by a trial jury in August of seven criminal counts, including attempt to influence a public servant, conspiracy to commit criminal impersonation, violation of duty, and failure to comply with secretary of state requirements. Shortly after Peters was sentenced, the Republican presidential nominee Trump told attendees at a campaign rally in Michigan that in the 2020 election, "We won, we won, we did win."
"It was a rigged election," Trump said.” Story at...
Trump election conspiracist Tina Peters sentenced to 9 years in prison by Colorado judge (msn.com)
 
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits rose modestly last week but remains at healthy levels. The Labor Department reported Thursday that applications for jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 225,000 for the week of Sept. 28.” Story at... 
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-layoffs-labor-c9a0108e2178669fa3966a1104c96d5f
 
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM via prnewswire)
"In September, the Services PMI® registered 54.9 percent, 3.4 percentage points higher than August's figure of 51.5 percent. The reading in September marked the seventh time the composite index has been in expansion territory this year. The Business Activity Index registered 59.9 percent in September, 6.6 percentage points higher than the 53.3 percent recorded in August, indicating a third month of expansion after a contraction in June.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-54-9-september-2024-services-ism-report-on-business-302266144.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.2% to 5700.
-VIX rose about 8% to 20.49. 
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 3.846%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 9 Bear-sign and 13-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) declined to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Indicators continue to trend downward and that’s not encouraging. The 50-Indicator spread of +4 is only slightly bullish.
 
I think the news from the Middle East and/or the election may be worrying markets. Indicators give us a sense that markets are now troubled and likely to trend downward until they hit a stopping point at support.
 
Potential Support: The S&P 500 is 2.8% above its 50-dMA and 8.6% above its 200-dMA. The first line of support, the lower trendline, is less than 2% below todays close. (Yesterday, I said the lower trendline was 1% lower. It looks more like 2% now.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.