Tuesday, October 15, 2024

NY Fed Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
BIDEN’S BROADBAND BLOWOUT IS A WASTE (WSJ)
The Broadband Rollout Fiasco” (Review & Outlook, Oct. 5) is real. Few American households live in areas without access to broadband in the first place. In its 2021 Broadband Deployment Report, the Federal Communications Commission found that 99.4% of the U.S. population in 2019 lived in areas that met the FCC’s broadband definition for either fixed or mobile services. The remaining 0.6%, roughly 770,000 households, who lacked access to broadband were mostly in the rural West or Alaska. The 2021 infrastructure law allocated $42.5 billion to areas “unserved” by broadband. That is more than $55,000 for each unserved household in 2019. Many would have chosen a check for $50,000 rather than a new government service.” - Harold Furchtgott-Roth, former FCC commissioner, Hudson Institute. From WSJ Letters at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/biden-broadband-blowout-is-a-waste-cea24907
 
US TIGHTENS OIL SANCTIONS ON IRAN (WSJ)
“The Biden administration said Friday that it was tightening sanctions on Iran in response to Tehran’s large-scale ballistic missile attack on Israel earlier this month.” Story at... 
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/u-s-tightens-oil-sanctions-on-iran-as-it-seeks-to-contain-israeli-attack-dd983191
My cmt: According to the US Dept of State, Iran has been supporting “...Hamas and other U.S.-designated Palestinian terrorist groups, including Palestine Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command.” Why haven’t our sanctions already been maxed out? This is another example of unbelievable incompetence by our government. Or was it pure politics? Don't put too many sanctions on, so the oil price remains low and Democrats get re-elected - your choice.
 
NY FED MANUFACTURING (bnnBloomberg)
“New York state factory activity swung back into contraction territory this month as orders and shipments weakened, consistent with lackluster manufacturing. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s October general business conditions index slid 23.4 points to a five-month low of minus 11.9, figures issued Tuesday showed... the New York Fed’s gauge of prices paid for materials increased to a six-month high of 29, while an index of prices received by state manufacturers also accelerated.” Story at...
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/10/15/new-york-manufacturing-contracts-as-orders-shipments-weaken/
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.8% to 5815.
-VIX rose about 5% to 20.64.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.034%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16, but SOLD 2 Oct. (Missed this move. I expect to buy it back soon)
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 16 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:

The NY Fed report that hinted at increasing inflation came out at 8:30 am Eastern, so today’s fall starting at 10 am is curious. There was a double-top on the S&P 500 before the fall, so the decline was still probably due to the NY Fed report.
 
Overall, today’s Bull-Bear spread of +8 is bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) was flat. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more funds to the stock market.
 
An improvement in the indicators tomorrow will probably give me that buy-signal since the 10-dMA is flat.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish, but still awaiting an upturn in indicators to add leveraged trading positions.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.