Wednesday, October 16, 2024

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“The organizational unsteadiness of Ms. Harris’s campaign reflects a longtime personal trait, according to allies: she is a candidate who seeks input from a stable of advisers, but her personal political convictions can be unclear...To some Democrats who know Ms. Harris, her struggles indicate larger limitations. ‘You can’t run the country if you can’t run your campaign...” – NY Times, November 2019.
 
Under Democratic Governor Ralph Northum, the Commonwealth of Virginia passed a bill that said law enforcement could not use facial recognition.  The stated reason was that it discriminated against minorities, an absurd claim - it discriminates against criminals. In 2022, under Republican Glenn Youngkin, Virginia passed legislation (SB 741) that allows law enforcement and government agencies to use facial recognition technology, reversing the state's complete ban that was enacted in 2021...just sayin.’
 
TRUMP MIGHT WIN – WHAT DOES THAT SAY ABOUT THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY? (USA Today)
“If Democrats aren't panicking yet, they might want to start. The Kamala Harris honeymoon is over, and the glow has dissipated. In six of the seven battleground states, former President Donald Trump now shows a slight lead in the polls. An NBC News poll released Sunday shows Harris and Trump tied in the national vote. We are three weeks out from Election Day and one thing has become clear: Trump might actually win.” Story at...
Opinion: Trump might win this election. What does that say about the Democratic Party? (msn.com)
My cmt: It is important to remember that President Obama did not endorse Harris. He anticipated a convention where the best candidate would be selected. Here’s an excerpt from his statement regarding Biden’s dropping out of the race: “We will be navigating uncharted waters in the days ahead. But I have extraordinary confidence that the leaders of our party will be able to create a process from which an outstanding nominee emerges. I believe that Joe Biden's vision of a generous, prosperous, and united America that provides opportunity for everyone will be on full display at the Democratic Convention in August.” 
Instead, the Democrats, like Biden, made a woke selection of a woman of color.  Harris was the first to drop out of the Presidential race in December of 2019. Why did they think she could pull this off? She still might – Trump is a weak candidate, too, but her left-leaning positions border on communism. See below.
 
WHAT HARRIS BELIEVES – EXCERPTED & or PARAPHRASED mostly from WSJ, but also from various reputable, legitimate sources.
As California Attorney General and US Senator from California:
1. She sponsored a bill to create a $6,000 guaranteed income for families making up to $100,000.
2. She proposed a refundable tax credit capping rents and utility payments at 30% of income.
3.She co-sponsored legislation with Bernie Sanders to pay tuition at four-year public colleges for students from families making up to $125,000.
 
4. She co-sponsored Medicare-for-All legislation with Bernie Sanders, abolishing private health insurance.
5. She endorsed a nationwide ban on oil and gas fracking. (Now she says she no longer supports such a ban.)
6. She investigated Exxon Mobil over its carbon emissions. (as Attorney General of California.)
 
7.Speaking to a Service Employees International Union (SEIU) gathering on Saturday [7/27/2024], Harris spoke of the need for "banning right-to-work laws" that nearly half of states have enacted and how, as president, she would use both her "bully pulpit" and "executive authority" to accomplish that. (Right-to-work laws say is that employees can't be told to join a union or pay union fees as a condition of employment.)
8. As a U.S. senator, Harris was an early co-sponsor of the Green New Deal, a non-binding blueprint for transitioning the country to 100% clean energy within a decade. The Green New Deal was first introduced by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Edward Markey in February 2019. (Jul 21, 2024) Harris unveiled a plan to spend $10 trillion to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with a goal of getting to a zero-emissions economy by 2045.
9.She voted against Fed Chair Powell’s first term as Fed chair in 2018 in an 84-13 vote. 
 
10. She supported the Democratic Party’s 2020 platform, which proposed expanding the Fed’s dual mandate—the pursuit of maximum employment and price stability—to include a racial-equity component.
11. In a high-profile speech in March, she became the first person in the Biden administration to call for an immediate ceasefire, albeit only a temporary one. “When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress Wednesday [26 July], Vice President Kamala Harris wasn’t there... the snub was unmistakable. It is fueling rumors of a rift between the Harris and Biden approaches to the Middle East.”
12. Vice President Harris signaled her support Monday for sweeping changes to the “extreme” Supreme Court, including 18-year term limits for justices, proposed by President Biden. (As noted by Bill Barr, former Attorney General, Biden’s reforms would purge conservative Justices & “destroy the independence of the judiciary.”  
 
13. “...Mr. Biden famously put Ms. Harris in charge of border policy... Rather than push for border policy changes [she blamed] the rush of migrants on “root causes” in developing countries, including corruption, violence, poverty and “lack of climate adaptation and climate resilience.” ...
14. “...She lambasted the Trump Administration for killing Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gen. Qassem Soleimani, claiming it could lead to bigger war in the Mideast. The killing chastened Iran’s rulers instead, at least until the Biden Administration began to ease sanctions and tried to repeat the 2015 nuclear deal...
15.Ms. Harris made headlines a decade ago by threatening to punish nonprofit groups that refused to turn over unredacted donor information... [The] purpose was to learn the names of conservative donors and chill future political giving. The Court said California’s claim that it would protect donor information lacked credibility, since during the litigation plaintiffs discovered nearly 2,000 Schedule B forms “inadvertently posted to the Attorney General’s website.” It noted that the petitioners and donors faced “threats” and “retaliation.” - WSJ
 
16. The self-described "government transparency website" scored Harris as the "most liberal compared to all senators" in 2019, outranking Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren at the time. (After Harris became the defacto Presidential candidate, the website removed the rating.)
 
17. “The organizational unsteadiness of Ms. Harris’s campaign reflects a longtime personal trait, according to allies: she is a candidate who seeks input from a stable of advisers, but her personal political convictions can be unclear...To some Democrats who know Ms. Harris, her struggles indicate larger limitations. ‘You can’t run the country if you can’t run your campaign...” – NY Times, November 2019.
 
-Regular readers know that while I think VP Harris is a disaster, I am not a Trump supporter.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 5842.
-VIX declined about 5% to 19.58.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.018%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 5 gave Bear-signs and 17 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +12 (12 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Today’s Bull-Bear spread of +12 is bullish and the 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) finally turned up. These are the signs I was hoping to see and I’ve added trading positions in SPY and SSO.
 
Wednesday there was High, unchanged-volume. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been higher for a while. Does that mean a reversal lower is in the works? Perhaps the best we can say is that investors are confused. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.