“I had been a university professor and department chair
before retiring, lastly at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University—a good school
with highly motivated students. At one of my university’s commencements, the
student valedictorian compared his graduating classmates to those of a noted
protest college down the road. He drew cheers when he said the fundamental
difference was that ‘we had already found ourselves when we came here to learn;
they’re still searching.’ ... The place for Harvard’s students isn’t in a
protest colony camped out on the campus promenade; it’s in the
classrooms—provided they can find some intellectual honesty there.” - Col. Art
Saboski, USAF (Ret.). WSJ letters at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/who-is-paying-for-antisemitism-at-harvard-adec2760?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9
“Public support for terrorist organizations would once
have shocked Americans. Now it’s common. On social media and college campuses,
kaffiyeh-clad protesters openly embrace Hamas and Hezbollah, both
U.S.-designated foreign terrorist organizations.... For nearly a year, American
supporters of Hamas and Hezbollah have been freely promoting terrorism, often
targeting and trying to intimidate the nation’s Jewish communities. Jewish
student groups on college campuses have been attacked, as have Jewish-owned private
businesses, synagogues and nonprofits across the country. It’s past time that
these people are exposed and their activities condemned and investigated.” -
Steven Stalinsky, Executive Director of the Middle East Media Research
Institute. Opinion from WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/hamas-and-hezbollah-threaten-the-us-as-american-supporters-are-increasingly-open-1ff0d97e?mod=opinion_lead_pos8
PAYROLL REPORT / UNEMPLOYMENT (CNBC)
“The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August... The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/september-2024-us-jobs-report.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 5751.
-VIX declined about 6% to 19.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 3.969%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 8 Bear-sign and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Friday, the 50-Indicator spread turned up to +7. That’s a decent bullish number, but for trading, I follow the 10-day data (purple line in the chart above) to avoid getting whipsawed. Indicators continue to trend downward on a 10-day basis and that’s not encouraging. I’ll wait until the 10-dMA of the 50-day Indicator turns up before I move back into leveraged positions.
I’ve been saying that markets were upset by tensions in
the Middle east. We rarely really know
why markets are moving with certainty. Perhaps markets were worried by the
Longshoreman’s strike and the possibility of renewed shortages and inflation. Now
that the longshoreman’s strike is resolved (for the short term) all seems
well. We also saw good news in the Payroll
report, however, there were big seasonal adjustments so it is possible some of that
good news will be “less good” when the news is updated at a future payroll
report. But enough speculation.
I’ll watch the 10-dMA of the 50-day Indicator Spread before
I add to investments.
Friday was a statistically significant up-day. That just
means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics
show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about
60% of the time. Tops almost always
occur on Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all
statistically-significant, up-days occur at tops. Today, none of my top
indicators were bearish so I doubt we have seen an important top. The S&P
was close to an all-time high today, but didn’t quite get there.
BOTTOM LINE
I remain cautiously bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/who-is-paying-for-antisemitism-at-harvard-adec2760?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos9
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/hamas-and-hezbollah-threaten-the-us-as-american-supporters-are-increasingly-open-1ff0d97e?mod=opinion_lead_pos8
“The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August... The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/04/september-2024-us-jobs-report.html
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 5751.
-VIX declined about 6% to 19.21.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 3.969%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 8 Bear-sign and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus
Bear Indicators) improved to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
The 10-dMA is sloping down, a bearish sign. (I had a typo here for a
couple of days – sorry about that.)
Friday, the 50-Indicator spread turned up to +7. That’s a decent bullish number, but for trading, I follow the 10-day data (purple line in the chart above) to avoid getting whipsawed. Indicators continue to trend downward on a 10-day basis and that’s not encouraging. I’ll wait until the 10-dMA of the 50-day Indicator turns up before I move back into leveraged positions.
I remain cautiously bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
