“Hurricane Helene, fueled by converging weather and
climate ingredients, hammered the mountains of North Carolina in recent days
with staggering amounts of rain and catastrophic flooding. In one of the worst
natural disasters the region has ever seen, more than 20 to 30 inches of rain
fell in less than three days...” From...
Conditions for N.C.'s historic deluge began more than 30 hours before Helene arrived (msn.com)
Hurricane Helene’s rainfall may have been historic for North Carolina, but it is hardly unprecedented. Hurricane Camille passed over my home in Tennessee when I was a college student. I’ve never seen such rain. It turned east and ran into the Appalachian Mountains where survivors who ran from their houses to escape flooding said it rained so hard you couldn’t breathe.
“It is perhaps the most astounding single weather event
in U.S. history: A once-in-10,000-years inland storm with the strength of a
40,000-megaton nuclear bomb. A fury that saw up to 46 inches of rain fall in
six hours, brought 400-million-year-old mountains cascading down into the
valley, and nearly destroyed Nelson County, Va. in late August, 1969.” From...
https://blueridgecountry.com/archive/favorites/the-storm-that-swallowed-a-county/
“I’ve worked in the credit-card industry for 15 years, on
both the servicing and legal sides... The interest rate on any loan product is based on the potential risk
of default on repayment. Capping credit-card annual percentage rates, or APRs,
wouldn’t only be massive government overreach; it would prevent a bank or
lender from appropriately mitigating counterparty risk. A government-mandated
cap on interest rates for borrowing would simply provide an incentive for
borrowers to use their credit line more, leading to greater credit risk
exposure for the bank and less interest income to offset potential credit
losses from default.
This isn’t complicated, but Donald Trump’s idea is what we get when politicians will say anything to get elected.” - Matthew Schmidt, WSJ Letters, from...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-takes-a-risky-page-out-of-the-harris-playbook-credit-card-interest-rate-9d8a38ef?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos10
NEWSOME BANS VOTER ID IN CALIFORNIA (Newsweek)
“California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed legislation that prevents local governments from requiring voters to present identification at the polls, a law aimed at curbing conservative efforts in cities like Huntington Beach... The new measure, which becomes effective on January 1, 2025, makes California one of 14 states that do not require voter ID for elections, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.” Story at...
Gavin Newsom Bans California From Requiring ID to Vote (msn.com)
My cmt: Unbelievable. Even in “Blue” Virginia, IDs are required.
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
"The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.2 percent in September, matching the figure recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 53rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)... Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy — which the U.S. Federal Reserve addressed by the time of this report — and election uncertainty.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-47-2-september-2024-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-302263093.html
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Yahoo Finance)
“U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in August amid a sharp drop in outlays on single-family housing projects, but declining borrowing costs could stimulate activity in the months ahead. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday construction spending dipped 0.1%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-construction-spending-falls-august-144643097.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.9% to 5709.
-VIX rose about 16% to 16.73.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.732% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 7 Bear-sign and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) declined to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Yesterday was a new, all-time high for the S&P 500. Over 7% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. That’s a little above the average so it shows relatively good breadth at the high – a good sign. Today, markets were down at the open. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East could have been the cause. Indicators don’t look bad, but if war escalates it could result in declines. I haven’t gotten around to taking profits in QLD but I may tomorrow. I won’t be watching the markets Thursday and Friday and I’d like to take profits while I still have them.
VIX was higher today, but still lower than it has been o
a moving average basis and my VIX indicator turned bullish.
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
Conditions for N.C.'s historic deluge began more than 30 hours before Helene arrived (msn.com)
Hurricane Helene’s rainfall may have been historic for North Carolina, but it is hardly unprecedented. Hurricane Camille passed over my home in Tennessee when I was a college student. I’ve never seen such rain. It turned east and ran into the Appalachian Mountains where survivors who ran from their houses to escape flooding said it rained so hard you couldn’t breathe.
https://blueridgecountry.com/archive/favorites/the-storm-that-swallowed-a-county/
This isn’t complicated, but Donald Trump’s idea is what we get when politicians will say anything to get elected.” - Matthew Schmidt, WSJ Letters, from...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/trump-takes-a-risky-page-out-of-the-harris-playbook-credit-card-interest-rate-9d8a38ef?mod=letterstoeditor_article_pos10
“California Governor Gavin Newsom has signed legislation that prevents local governments from requiring voters to present identification at the polls, a law aimed at curbing conservative efforts in cities like Huntington Beach... The new measure, which becomes effective on January 1, 2025, makes California one of 14 states that do not require voter ID for elections, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.” Story at...
Gavin Newsom Bans California From Requiring ID to Vote (msn.com)
My cmt: Unbelievable. Even in “Blue” Virginia, IDs are required.
"The Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.2 percent in September, matching the figure recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 53rd month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.)... Demand remains subdued, as companies showed an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to federal monetary policy — which the U.S. Federal Reserve addressed by the time of this report — and election uncertainty.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/manufacturing-pmi-at-47-2-september-2024-manufacturing-ism-report-on-business-302263093.html
“U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in August amid a sharp drop in outlays on single-family housing projects, but declining borrowing costs could stimulate activity in the months ahead. The Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday construction spending dipped 0.1%...” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-construction-spending-falls-august-144643097.html
-Tuesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.9% to 5709.
-VIX rose about 16% to 16.73.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 3.732% (compared to about this time, prior trading day).
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 7 Bear-sign and 15-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) declined to +8 (8 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
Yesterday was a new, all-time high for the S&P 500. Over 7% of issues on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs. That’s a little above the average so it shows relatively good breadth at the high – a good sign. Today, markets were down at the open. Geopolitical issues in the Middle East could have been the cause. Indicators don’t look bad, but if war escalates it could result in declines. I haven’t gotten around to taking profits in QLD but I may tomorrow. I won’t be watching the markets Thursday and Friday and I’d like to take profits while I still have them.
I remain bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
