“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“In an election characterized by bitter clashes, it’s notable that one typically divisive topic has gone almost unmentioned: climate change... As climate policy turns from distant, grandiose promises of future carbon cuts into the very real prospect of present-day energy price hikes, U.S. voters are asking whether it’s worth it. This is the first presidential election in which the economic consequences of green ideals have become real with less reliable power and higher total energy costs... The truth of the matter is that nothing Ms. Harris does to cut carbon can stop climate change. It’s developing nations that are driving emissions in this century. Even if the U.S. achieved net-zero carbon emissions overnight and stayed that way for the rest of the century—basically destroying its economy and much of American quality of life—the 2100 projected global temperature would only drop 0.3 degree Fahrenheit based on the United Nations’ climate model.” - Bjorn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus and author of “False Alarm” and “Best Things First.” Opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/harris-stops-talking-about-climate-change-green-policies-costs-7d4b31ed
“The [Washington] Post has been doggedly portraying the election between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris as a choice between tyranny (Trump) and democracy (Harris). Yet when it commissioned a poll on threats to democracy shortly before the election, it did not quite work out. Voters in swing states believe that Trump is more likely to protect democracy than Kamala Harris, who is running on a “save democracy” platform...
...Despite years of alarmist predictions from Biden, Harris, the press, and pundits, the public is not buying it. It is not because they particularly like Trump. Many of his supporters seem poised to vote for him despite viewing him as polarizing and, at times, obnoxious. No, it is because the American voter has a certain innate resistance to being played as a chump.” - Jonathan Turley, Professor, George Washington University Law School
https://jonathanturley.org/2024/10/24/selling-the-apocalypse-the-press-and-pundits-face-devastating-polls-on-the-threat-to-democracy/#more-224663
“Orders for durable goods in the U.S. declined for the third month out of the last four in September, as transportation equipment orders dropped. New orders for products meant to last at three years, such as automobiles, planes and electronic equipment, fell 0.8% in September compared with August...” Story at...
https://www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jones/202410255441/us-durable-goods-orders-dip-as-transportation-equipment-demand-slides
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 2 pts to 5808.
-VIX rose about 7% to 20.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.242%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 10/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 10/16
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) declined to -3 (3 more Bear indicators and Bull indicators).
I mentioned previously that the statistical analysis of daily moves in the S&P 500 showed too much conformity and therefore was signaling a pullback in 20-days or less. That signal only lasted 3 days. It is most accurate when it continues into a top; the current top was on the center of those 3 days. For now, the signal is neutral. There were plenty of other bear signs: MACD of price; my Money Trend indicator; long-term and short-term New-high/New-low data; McClellan Oscillator; and we can’t like that the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE (breadth) is declining over the last 2 weeks and there were several other bear signs. Overall, current indicators are not too scary.
My guess is that the decline will continue, but not much farther. The 50-dMA is a little more than 2% lower than today’s close.
I’m neutral on the markets. If the pullback continues, the drop should be small.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
