"The aid that we have given Israel allowed Israel to
defend itself against 200 ballistic missiles that were just meant to attack the
Israelis and the people of Israel. And when we think about the threat that
Hamas, Hezbollah presents, Iran, I think that it is without any question, our
imperative to do what we can to allow Israel to defend itself against those
kinds of attacks. Now the work we do diplomatically with the leadership of
Israel is an ongoing pursuit around making clear our principles, which include
the need for humanitarian aid, the need for this war to end, the need for a
deal to be done which would release the hostages and create a cease-fire. And
we’re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the
region, including Arab leaders." – VP Kamala Harris, on 60-Minutes,
responding to whether the US has “sway” over Netanyahu.
BUSINESS OPTIMISM (NFIB)
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points in September to 91.5. This is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded... “Small business owners are feeling more uncertain than ever,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Uncertainty makes owners hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines. Although some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are left questioning whether future business conditions will improve.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 5751.
-VIX declined about 5% to 21.42. (Typo here yesterday.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.014%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 9 Bear-sign and 13-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping down, a bearish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
There was another statistically-significant, up-day today for the S&P 500. That’s three big days in a row: up-down-up. That sometimes occurs at tops.
A statistically significant up-day means that the
price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a
statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about 60% of the
time. Tops almost always occur on
Statistically-significant, up-days, but not all statistically-significant,
up-days occur at tops. Today could be a short-term top, but there were no top
indicators that were bearish, so a significant top seems unlikely.
I didn’t mention it yesterday, but Monday, unchanged
volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator
suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been higher
for awhile and the Index is near its upper trend line (from 5 August). Does
that mean a reversal lower is in the works? I don’t know. Perhaps the best we
can say is that investors are confused. It seems to me that a move higher or
lower is equally likely. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators
because it is often wrong.
Indicators have been declining on a 10-day basis and remain
in a Neutral indication.
The S&P 500 is 1.2% below its all-time high from last
week. If this weakness does develop into a more significant correction, I would
expect that the decline would not exceed 10%, based on numbers we saw at the
all-time high last week. I suspect it is more likely that the decline would
take the Index to its lower trend line (roughly S&P 5675) or perhaps down
another 3.4% to its 50-dMA (5558).
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point waiting to see what the indicators tell us.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 0.3 points in September to 91.5. This is the 33rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose 11 points to 103, the highest reading recorded... “Small business owners are feeling more uncertain than ever,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “Uncertainty makes owners hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines. Although some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are left questioning whether future business conditions will improve.” Press release at...
https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 5751.
-VIX declined about 5% to 21.42. (Typo here yesterday.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.014%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 9 Bear-sign and 13-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved to +4 (4 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping down, a bearish sign.
There was another statistically-significant, up-day today for the S&P 500. That’s three big days in a row: up-down-up. That sometimes occurs at tops.
I’m neutral at this point waiting to see what the indicators tell us.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
