Wednesday, October 9, 2024

Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
"We need to guard that spirit. We have to guard that spirit. Let it always inspire us. Let it always be the source of our optimism, which is that spirit that is uniquely American. Let that then inspire us by helping us to be inspired to solve the problems that so many face, including our small business owners.” – Kamala Harris, VP at the Economic Club of Pittsburg. (This was a prepared speech - disappointingly inarticulate.)
 
“Lyin’ Kamala, who is being exposed as a “dummy” every time she does a show, just stated to the degenerates on The View that she would have done nothing different than Crooked Joe Biden, the WORST PRESIDENT IN THE HISTORY OF THE UNITED STATES. The Lamestream Media doesn’t want to pick up the story, the dumb women on the show wish they never asked her the question that led to that Election Defying answer, but the Internet is going WILD. For starters, THE BORDER DISASTER, WITH MURDERERS AND EVERYONE ELSE BEING ALLOWED TO INVADE OUR COUNTRY, WORST INFLATION IN HISTORY, THE UKRAINE DISASTER, OCTOBER 7TH WITH ISRAEL, LOSS OF ENERGY INDEPENDENCE, THE AFGHANISTAN DEBACLE, LOSS OF RESPECT ALL OVER THE GLOBE, AND MUCH MORE! Her dumbest answer so far!” – Donald Trump posted on “X”.
 
“One of the painful signs of years of dumbed-down education is how many people are unable to make a coherent argument. They can vent their emotions, question other people’s motives, make bold assertions, repeat slogans—anything except reason.” ― Thomas Sowell, senior fellow at the Hoover Institution.
 
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin
 
“Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe.” - Albert Einstein
 
"Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son." – Vernon Wormer, Dean, Faber College.
 
HARRIS TRUMP FISCAL IMPACTS (US Budget Watch)
“The next President will face significant fiscal challenges upon taking office, including record debt levels, large structural deficits, surging interest payments, and the looming insolvency of critical trust fund programs.1 Our large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis.
However, neither major candidate running in the 2024 presidential election has put forward a plan to address this rising debt burden. In fact, our comprehensive analysis of the candidates’ tax and spending plans finds that both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump would likely further increase deficits and debt above levels projected under current law.” Commentary at...
https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans
 
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 422.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.7% to 5792, a new all-time high.
-VIX declined about 3% to 20.86.   
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.073%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 8 gave Bear-signs and 14 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The daily 50-Indicator Spread improved, but the 10-dMA (purple line in the chart above) is still sloping down. That’s a bearish sign, but it was very close to reversing higher. If it does reverse higher, I may be buying back into my leveraged positions Thursday.
 
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +6 is mildly positive for the markets; it would be nice to see it higher.
 
The S&P 500 made a new all-time high today. 5.8% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today. That is below the 5-year average for this stat, but it is still high enough that I don’t consider it a bearish sign.
 
The bearish, rising-wedge pattern is still in play.  I’ve indicated the rising-wedge pattern by a red, dashed line in the above chart. If the Index breaks above the top of the triangle and stays there for consecutive days, it would end the bear pattern. If we see Indicators improve too, it would be a good sign for the markets and be a buy-signal for me.  
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish, still waiting to see what the indicators tell us.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.