Monday, October 14, 2024

... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
THE PURGE IS REAL – INSIDE THE GOP’S 2024 PLAYBOOK TO DISENFRANCHISE VOTERS (Alternet)
“On Monday, a new lawsuit was dropped on Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin from the League of Women Voters in Virginia and immigrant-rights groups who accuse him and his attorney general, Jason Miyares, of running an illegal “Purge Program” ahead of November's elections...These last-minute efforts to kick people off state voter lists aren’t accidental. They’re part of former President Donald Trump’s strategy to recapture the White House. And it’s working, at least in some regions.” Story at...
The Purge is real: Inside the GOP's 2024 playbook to disenfranchise voters (msn.com)
My cmt: What crap! If there is Russian disinformation to divide the country, this is what it would look like. Here’s what Wikipedia says about Alternet: “There is consensus that AlterNet is generally unreliable. Editors consider AlterNet a partisan source, and its statements should be attributed.”
 
Great Scott! The Democrats are working hard to get Donald Trump elected.  See the following:
VIRGINIA GOVERNOR ISSUES STATEMENT:
“Governor Glenn Youngkin, after being notified this afternoon (Friday) that the Biden-Harris Department of Justice was filing a lawsuit against the Commonwealth of Virginia, released the following statement: 
"With less than 30 days until the election, the Biden-Harris Department of Justice is filing an unprecedented lawsuit against me and the Commonwealth of Virginia, for appropriately enforcing a 2006 law signed by Democrat Tim Kaine that requires Virginia to remove noncitizens from the voter rolls - a process that starts with someone declaring themselves a non-citizen and then registering to vote. Virginians - and Americans - will see this for exactly what it is: a desperate attempt to attack the legitimacy of the elections in the Commonwealth, the very crucible of American Democracy. With the support of our Attorney General, we will defend these commonsense steps, that we are legally required to take, with every resource available to us. Virginia’s election will be secure and fair, and I will not stand idly by as this politically motivated action tries to interfere in our elections, period." Statement from the Governor’s Office at...
https://www.governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/news-releases/2024/october/name-1035132-en.html
Democrat Terry McCauliff lost the Virginia Gubernatorial election because during the September 2021 debate McCauliff said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” The Biden-Harris voter lawsuit ranks up there along with McCauliff’s blunder as a possible election game-changer. Harris has been leading in Virginia by as much as 11 points. Virginia has not voted Republican in a Presidential election for 20-years (George W. Bush). Perhaps the incompetent Democrats will change that.
 
WHEN YOUR CAMPAIGN IS FLAGGING, BUY SOME VOTES (Daily Caller)
“The Harris campaign rolled out its “Opportunity Agenda for Black Men,” which proposes to give one million $20,000 loans to black entrepreneurs and “others who have historically faced barriers to starting a new business or growing an existing business.” The policy is aligned with the Biden administration’s broad effort to prioritize or otherwise incorporate race into several major government programs and initiatives, such as its payments to black American farmers who faced discrimination before 2021 and its Justice40 agenda stipulating that 40% of the benefits of certain environmental spending and programs flow to “disadvantaged communities.”
Kamala Harris Appears To Propose New Race-Based Payments As Support From Black Men Lags (msn.com)
My cmt: I changed the headline for the above article. BTW. The Federal Government already has a program to do this referred to as “8A” (Section 8A under the Small Business Act).
From the Minority Business Development agency: “The 8(a) Business Development Program is a business assistance program for small disadvantaged businesses. The 8(a) Program offers a broad scope of assistance to firms that are owned and controlled at least 51% by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals.” I dealt with it regularly during my 35-year Government career. We paid more for 8A contracts because they were negotiated contracts rather than awarded to the lowest bidder.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.8% to 5860.
-VIX declined about 4% to 19.7.  
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.105%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24.
SSO – added 9/16.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 9 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

The daily Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators, red curve in the chart above) improved to +6 (6 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators).
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Overall, a Bull-Bear spread of +6 is slightly bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50-Indicator Spread (purple line in the chart above) is still sloping down. I need to see it break higher before I will commit more funds to the stock market.
 
As previously noted: The S&P 500 appears to be breaking out of the descending triangle and that‘s a good sign.
 
8.7% of issues on the NYSE made new 52-week highs today when the S&P 500 made a new, all-time high.  That’s well above average and this indicates a broad advance and suggests that if there were a pullback it would be relatively small.
 
One new Bear sign popped up today – Bollinger Bands are overbought. As I regularly note, I use Bollinger Bands with RSI.  Since RSI is not overbought so I’ll ignore the Bollinger signal.
 
I still think that I may get a buy-signal this week. I’ll post during the trading-day if I make any portfolio moves next week.
 
It might seem logical to add more stocks/ETFs now, but I am following my system.  I am already over-invested. I only move to an extreme over-invested position when the indicators are giving strong, bullish signals. I’ll wait until they do before I reset leveraged positions.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral at this point, but leaning bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.