"Iran made a big mistake tonight - and it will pay
for it...The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend
ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies." -
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Prime Minister
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via prnewswire)
“Private sector employment increased by 143,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 4.7 percent year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment Report produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab")... Job creation showed a widespread rebound after a five-month slowdown. Only one sector, information, lost jobs. Manufacturing added jobs for the first time since April.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-143-000-jobs-in-september-annual-pay-was-up-4-7-302265512.html
CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 416.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 5710.
-VIX declined about 2% to 18.90.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 3.783%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24 - SOLD 10/2.
SSO – added 9/16 - SOLD 10/2.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 7 Bear-sign and 14-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) declined to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I sold some leveraged positions today, as I wrote earlier. Indicators continue to drift down and that is concerning, although they remain in bullish territory. I am not worried about a crash or significant correction, but leveraged positions can give back gains in a hurry so I am being cautious by taking profits.
Here are guesses that are pure speculation: The S&P
500 is about 3% above its 50-dMA and it is possible that the Index might
retreat that far. A 1% decline is more likely since that would put the index at
its lower trend line.
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks when markets are stretched. (75% is my max
stock allocation when I am strongly bullish.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Private sector employment increased by 143,000 jobs in September and annual pay was up 4.7 percent year-over-year, according to the September ADP® National Employment Report produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab")... Job creation showed a widespread rebound after a five-month slowdown. Only one sector, information, lost jobs. Manufacturing added jobs for the first time since April.” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-143-000-jobs-in-september-annual-pay-was-up-4-7-302265512.html
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 416.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about a point to 5710.
-VIX declined about 2% to 18.90.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 3.783%.
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows. Added more 9/20.
UWM – added 7/15 & more 9/20.
QLD – added 7/24 - SOLD 10/2.
SSO – added 9/16 - SOLD 10/2.
SPY – added 9/19 & more 9/20
The Bull/Bear Spread remained in a BULL position at 7 Bear-sign and 14-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) declined to +7 (7 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). The 10-dMA is sloping upward, remaining bullish.
I sold some leveraged positions today, as I wrote earlier. Indicators continue to drift down and that is concerning, although they remain in bullish territory. I am not worried about a crash or significant correction, but leveraged positions can give back gains in a hurry so I am being cautious by taking profits.
I remain bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.)
