Navigate the Stock Market: April 2024

Tuesday, April 30, 2024

Consumer Confidence ... Chicago PMI ... Employment Cost Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Markets were weak all day and closed very near their lows. It’s just one day though. Markets are spooked by the Fed meeting Wed and Thursday and the weaker than expected data we’ve seen rececntly. There’s still talk about the low GDP number. The experts have pointed out that it was low due to volitile data associated with imports and exports. Those numbers are expected to improved and the next GDP number should improve handily.

Tuesday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. Bottoms occur on statistically-significant, down-days, since they tend to be flush out days that shake out weak hands; but not all statistically-significant, down-days are bottoms.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
The pullback is over, but the S&P 500 could always retest its low. That’s my story and I’m sticking with it.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 70% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position.

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 22 and 23.

Monday, April 29, 2024

Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

From Michael Ramirez, political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html

CRIMINAL CASES AGAINST TRUMP (US News and World Report)
“Indictment 1: Hush Money
Trump’s first indictment on March 30, 2023, centered around his role in reimbursing his former attorney, Michael Cohen, for paying off porn star Stormy Daniels in 2016 to keep her quiet about what she says was an extramarital affair she had with Trump a decade earlier...[charged with]... falsifying business records...

Indictment 2: Classified Documents
The former president’s second indictment came on June 9, when a grand jury accused him of illegally retaining classified information after he left office, showing some of those documents to individuals without proper clearance and hatching a plan to hide the materials from officials in defiance of a federal subpoena...[charged with]... willful retention of national defense information, conspiracy to obstruct justice, withholding a document or record, corruptly concealing a document or record, concealing a document in a federal investigation, scheme to conceal and making false statements...

Indictment 3: 2020 Election
A federal grand jury handed up Trump’s third indictment on Aug. 1 in connection with what prosecutors say were efforts to overturn the results of his 2020 election loss and undermine America’s democracy...[ charged with]... one count of conspiracy to defraud the United States, one count of conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, one count of obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, and one count of conspiracy against rights....

Indictment 4: Georgia RICO and Conspiracy
Trump’s fourth indictment came late on Aug. 14, when a grand jury accused him and more than a dozen of his allies of orchestrating a massive criminal enterprise to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election in Georgia... Trump attorneys Jenna Ellis, Sidney Powell and Kenneth Chesebro and Atlanta-based bail bondsman Scott Hall have pleaded guilty in the case and were given reduced sentences in exchange for their cooperation with prosecutors... Trump faced 13 charges, including a violation of the state racketeering law, or RICO, solicitation of violation of oath by public officer, conspiracy to commit impersonating a public officer, conspiracy to commit forgery, conspiracy to commit false statements and writings, committing false statements and writings, conspiracy to commit filing false documents and filing false documents.” Story at...
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2023-08-15/explainer-trumps-four-indictments
My cmt: There was a lot more detail in the interesting read.

Trump has already been found guilty in one case (not listed above; it’s not a criminal case).
“Judge Arthur Engoron, ruling in a civil lawsuit brought by New York Attorney General Letitia James, found that Trump and his company deceived banks, insurers and others by massively overvaluing his assets and exaggerating his net worth on paperwork used in making deals and securing loans.” For details see...
https://apnews.com/article/donald-trump-letitia-james-fraud-lawsuit-1569245a9284427117b8d3ba5da74249

The MAGA crowd claims these cases are all about “weaponizing” Government against poor, mistreated Donald.
“Never underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups." – George Carlin

The NY cases are questionable. Any one of the other three should put Trump in prison.

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 improved about 0.3% to 5116.
-VIX declined about 2% to 14.67.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.612%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
SSO – Added 4/29/2024.

XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024

DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) continues to improve and Monday it turned bullish. The Summary is now 8 Bear-signs and 14-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The chart below continues to look bullish. The 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread (Bulls minus Bears) has been bottoming and again today, it moved higher.

TODAY’S COMMENT:

Today, markets reacted to news in the afternoon that the Treasury Department was going to borrow about $41B more than expected next quarter. This is a worry – the National Debt is now impacting stock markets. As always, I’ll be watching the markets closely. If the National Debt begins to affect stock market sentiment, we could be in for real trouble. For now, markets are looking ok. We are coming off a 25% bear market that ended two years ago. It would be unusual to see a crash now, and indicators don’t support it; I am following indicators.

As much as we’d like to pretend otherwise, Indicators don’t predict the future. They give a snapshot of current market conditions and trend. For now, the trend is up.
Market indicators suggest that the pullback is over. Market action over the last 2 days is confirming that conclusion. Could the markets reverse back down? Sure, that’s always possible, but Indicators are bullish and more are on the verge of turning bullish.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I think the pullback is over. I bought SSO and QLD.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

Friday, April 26, 2024

PCE ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Fast Money crowd on CNBC was again talking about how the advance has been narrow with only big names, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, etc., carrying the market. I don’t know about that. Moving averages of the % of issues advancing on the NYSE for 10, 50 and 100-days are now all above 50%, i.e., more than half of the issues over those periods have advanced. A lot of issues are participating. At the S&P 500 high at the end of March, 13% of all issues on the NYSE made new, all-time highs – that number suggests a broad advance and that if a decline were to occur, it would probably be less than 10%. The max decline from the March high was 5.5%, five sessions ago.

I’ve been saying for several days that I think the pullback is over. Today, it looks like the market is starting to agree with me.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
I think this pullback is over and Monday I’ll place some more bets in that direction by adding trading positions in SSO and QLD.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.

I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.

Thursday, April 25, 2024

PCE ... GDP ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.

“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.

HYPOCRISY IN WASHINGTON (NY Post via msn.com)
“Hypocrisy is Washington, DC’s lifeblood, so it was a nice change when DC Judge Ana Reyes [Biden appointed Judge] lambasted the Justice Department for instructing two lawyers in its Tax Division to disregard a congressional subpoena in the Hunter Biden investigation, all while it has been zealously prosecuting Trump officials for the very same offense... “There’s a person in jail right now because you all brought a criminal lawsuit against him because he did not appear for a House subpoena,” Reyes said, referring to Navarro [a former Trump trade adviser]. “And now you guys are flouting those subpoenas... I think it’s quite rich you guys pursue criminal investigations and put people in jail for not showing up.” Story at...
DC judge points out pervasive hypocrisy hell that’s permeating every corner of the federal government (msn.com)
My cmt: Hypocrisy in Washington? That could never happen.
“You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.” – Obi-Wan visits Washington DC.

BIGGEST ENERGY BLUNDER EVER (State of the Union via msn.com)
“Energy experts have raised concerns about electric vehicles becoming widely adopted in the U.S. due to issues like cost and affordability, range limitations, lack of charging infrastructure, reliability questions, and impacts to the electric grid and energy costs. While government policies heavily subsidize EVs, critics argue this amounts to a regressive wealth transfer, with lower/middle income Americans shouldering the higher costs...
...’We calculated that if you add on the socialized infrastructure costs, and then in particular add on California’s zero emission vehicle mandate, which adds cost to all of us because the automakers have to pay to produce more EVs in California, and they spread that cost to the whole country, the federal fuel economy regulations alone are subsidizing each EV by about $20,000. Add all this together, and each EV is getting almost $50,000 in subsidies.’” Story at...
EV expert warns about ‘one of the biggest energy policy blunders we’ve ever made’ (msn.com)
"Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."- George Carlin

“The Environmental Protection Agency’s own climate model predicts that the proposed emissions standards for light, medium and heavy vehicles would reduce global temperatures in 2100 by 0.02-degrees Celsius.” - Benjamin Zycher, American Enterprise Institute. From WSJ at...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/electric-vehicles-ev-wont-save-the-climate-carbon-eda2089e
My cmt: Isn’t that weird? Auto emissions contribute a negligible amount to Climate change, but the Biden administration wants to outlaw ICE (Internal Combustion Engines) by 2035. It reminds me that Democrats canceled the Keystone Pipeline. As a result, oil must be carried by train to US refineries, a more costly and environmentally risky proposition – but it “sounds” better and plays to the environmental extremists.

“I suspect the initial rally may pause in here and some pruning could be in the cards. While it’s not my preferred scenario, I guess it’s possible that stocks bottomed already, but I still think the absolute low lies ahead next month, even if it’s just at marginally lower levels.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritagae Capital.

GDP / CORE PCE (Yahoo Finance)
“The US economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years last quarter as inflation topped Wall Street estimates. The Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of first quarter US gross domestic product (GDP ) showed the economy grew at an annualized pace of 1.6%...Meanwhile, the ‘core’ Personal Consumption Expenditures index, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, grew by 3.7% in the first quarter, above estimates for 3.4%, and significantly higher than 2% gain seen in the prior quarter... "The deceleration in GDP growth will not worry the Fed as the details are better than the headline would suggest," Oxford economics chief US economist Ryan Sweet said.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gdp-us-economy-grows-at-16-annual-pace-in-first-quarter-falling-short-of-estimates-while-inflation-increases-123328820.html
My cmt: Markets are worried about inflation.

JOBLESS CLAIMS (Yahoo Finance)
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that unemployment claims for the week ending April 20 fell by 5,000 to 207,000 from 212,000 the previous week. That's the fewest since mid-February.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-applications-jobless-claims-fall-124135611.html

MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 5048.
-VIX declined about 4% to 15.37. (The Options Players aren’t worried.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.704%.

MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.

XLE – Added 4/24/2024
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024

DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index. It is not a true small cap index. It is more like everything except the S&P 500.)

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bulls minus Bears) had been improving. Today, the 50-indicator spread moved more to the Bear side. The Summary is currently 15 Bear-signs and 6-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)

TODAY’S COMMENT:

The chart is bullish since it was up all day. Let’s see if the Index can follow thru on Friday. I said yesterday, “my guess is that the pullback is over” based on indicators. Given today’s reversal in indicators it looks like I was too early? Maybe, but I’ll declare victory if the S&P 500 doesn’t make a new low. Today’s close was about 1% above the recent low this past Friday. The Index could drop and retest that low of 4967, but that is not something I can predict. It still looks like the pullback is over. A big, one-day pullback of greater than 1% might be the flush out signal we need to feel more confident. The bad PCE number could allow the serpents to creep into the porridge.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME is bearish; VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is over or at least winding down.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.)

Wednesday, April 24, 2024

Durable Goods ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT:
As usually happens, there are some cross-currents in the indicators. Consumer Staples outpaced the S&P 500 by a lot today. Utilities are outpacing the S&P 500 in momentum in my system and that’s a longer-term analysis and that is a very bearish sign. Both suggest investors are buying safety.

On the other hand, the 10-dMA of the spread of 50 Indicators (Bull minus Bear) finally turned up. As the chart shows, in recent history, the 10-day spread (purple line) has turned up shortly after a bottom, so the indicators are suggesting that markets have made a bottom. If it is a correct signal this time, it is turning up 3 days after the bottom. Given the worrisome flight to safety, the concern is that the signal may not be correct.

Despite those concerns, today, I added XLE (Energy Sector ETF).

Based on the overall indicators, my guess is that the pullback is over. As I write this, S&P 500 futures are down 0.6% and Nas futures are down more than 1%, so the options players think that I am wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is over or at least winding down.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

Tuesday, April 23, 2024

Home Sales / Permits ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The 10-dMA of indicator spread (Bull minus Bear) declined again today so we are not getting a buy-signal there. The daily numbers may be giving a better clue. The spread today was -6; it was -13 just four trading days ago. 10-day averages tend to lag; the daily numbers are suggesting “Buy” so aggressive investors may want to buy-the-dip now.

My Money Trend indicator can be a pretty good indicator at turning point; it is bullish. We saw a couple of days when both Bollinger Bands and RSI were oversold. We also note that 80% of volume was up-volume today. That’s good, but by itself this is not an actionable signal. If we see another 80% up-volume day Wednesday, I would consider it a bullish sign worthy of buying.

All in all, I suspect the pullback has made a bottom and I’ll probably add a stock trading-position tomorrow, but small retreats (less than 10%) give small signals. If we see the 10-dMA of the 50 Indicator Spread turn higher then I think this pullback will be over.

LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)

(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)

BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is winding down and I plan to add a trading position tomorrow (most likely one of the higher momentum ETFs). I'll add more when I see the indicators improve.

ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows: