CPI ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
WOMEN’S FINAL SETS RECORDS (WSJ)
“The NCAA women’s tournament final between Clark’s Iowa team and unbeaten South Carolina drew an all-time record of 18.7 million viewers, according to Nielsen overnight figures—or 18.9 million, once numbers were finalized Tuesday... It also beat every game from last year’s World Series, all five games of the NBA Finals and all but four college football games.” From...
https://www.wsj.com/sports/basketball/caitlin-clark-juju-watkins-paige-bueckers-future-e673d62f
 
6-MONTH DEFICIT: $1.1 TRILLION (WSJ)
“Washington continues to spend like deficits and debt don’t matter, and the politicians would rather you don’t know. For the record, the Congressional Budget Office reported Monday that the federal budget deficit for the first six months of fiscal 2024, ending in March, was $1.064 trillion... The six-month interest payments of $440 billion exceeded the $412 billion in outlays for defense... it’s still useful to be reminded of the ugly facts, given how hard the political class tries to hide and ignore them.” Commentary From... 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-deficit-spending-taxes-interest-payments-cbo-fiscal-2020-3616b6bc
My cmt: The CNBC fast Money traders were discussing the disastrous supply/demand issues that may arise. The Treasury Department must issue bonds to cover all the debt. We are starting to see weak Bond auctions in part, due to oversupply.  No reason to panic yet; but: “Jamie Dimon [CEO, JP Mogan & Chase] warned that U.S. interest rates could soar to 8% or more in coming years, reflecting the risk that record-high deficit spending and geopolitical stress will complicate the fight against inflation.” – WSJ at...
Https://www.wsj.com/finance/jamie-dimon-warns-u-s-might-face-interest-rate-spike-83789da7
 
CPI (CNBC)
“The CPI, a broad measure of goods and services costs across the economy, rose 0.4% for the month, putting the 12-month inflation rate at 3.5%, or 0.3 percentage point higher than in February...Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a 0.3% gain and a 3.4% year-over-year level.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/cpi-inflation-march-2024-consumer-prices-rose-3point5percent-from-a-year-ago-in-march.html
 
CRUDE INVENTORY (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 457.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1% to 5161.
-VIX rose about 5% to 15.80.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped up to 4.546%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
 
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
CPI didn’t help us today; it came in worse than expected. Indicators slipped back to the bear side and Short-term breadth turned bearish again. Longer-term breadth measures are still bullish so no need to panic yet.
 
The S&P 500 is 1.2% above its 50-dMA and that area is a possible stop for the current weakness. The Index is 11% above its 200-dMA. That is probably too far down and I don’t expect that much of a retreat.
 

CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, there are 14 bear-signs and 7-Bull. It was 12 Bear and 11 Bull Tuesday; the 10-dMA of the indicators continued to fall.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but Neutral for now. If the weakness continues much longer, I’ll get more defensive. 
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.