Trump’s Free Speech Claims Rejected ... Jobless Claims ... ISM Non-Manufacturing ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Former President Donald
Trump said
during a rally Tuesday in Grand Rapids, Michigan, that he spoke to the
family of a murder victim — a claim quickly contradicted by the family.” –
From...
Trump
Lies About Speaking to Murder Victim's Family (msn.com)
My cmt: How low can you go?
TRUMP’S FREE SPEECH CLAIM FAILS
“...the Court finds that the Defendants’ expressions and
speech are alleged to have been made in furtherance of criminal activity and
constitute false statements knowingly and willfully made in matters within a
government agency’s jurisdiction which threaten to deceive and harm the
government." - Atlanta Judge Scott McAfee rejecting Trump’s claim
that his effort to overturn the 2020 election was protected Free Speech.
TWO DAY DECLINE – NO ONE CARES (Heritage Capital)
“Two down days in the stock market, but it certainly
didn’t feel like folks cared much as stocks closed near their high for the day
on Tuesday. And the down days were barely noticeable on a chart.... I have been
looking for a Q1 peak followed by a less than 10% decline that wraps up by
Memorial Day. We will see if that March peak holds and stock stop going up... I
am finding myself liking technology for a trade in here. Semis, internet and
software all look appealing for a short-term rental.” Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/two-day-decline-no-one-cares/
QUIET MCCLELLAN OSCILLATOR (McClellan Financial
Publications)
“Most of the time, a very low reading for this 15-day
range indicator is a great marker for a price top, because quietness in the
stock market is a sign of complacency. Like any rule, there are
exceptions, though, and the last two very low readings highlighted in red are
good examples of how such exceptions can occur.” Commentary at...
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/quiet_mcclellan_oscillator/
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“In March, the Services PMI® registered 51.4
percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than February’s reading of 52.6 percent.
The composite index indicated growth in March for the 15th consecutive month...”
Story at...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/services/march/
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AOL/Reuters)
“The number of Americans filing new claims for
unemployment benefits increased to a two-month high last week, though labor
market conditions remain fairly tight... Initial claims for state unemployment
benefits rose 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended March
30..” Story at...
https://www.aol.com/us-weekly-jobless-claims-increase-124611823.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 1.2% to 5147.
-VIX rose about 14% to 16.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 4.307%. (Yields
were all over the place today and probably contributed to the weakness.)
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Added 2/20/2024
UWM – Added 1/22/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my retirement account betting on Smaller Caps.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The markets were up around 1%, but then fell hard after “Federal
Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neal Kashkari said
interest-rate cuts may not be needed this year if progress on inflation stalls,
especially if the economy remains robust.” From...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-04/fed-s-kashkari-floats-possibility-of-no-rate-cuts-this-year
In addition, news came out that during Biden’s phone call
with Netanyahu, “He made clear that U.S. policy with respect to Gaza will be
determined by our assessment of Israel’s immediate action on these steps. He
underscored that an immediate ceasefire is essential to stabilize and improve
the humanitarian situation and protect innocent civilians, and he urged the
prime minister to empower his negotiators to conclude a deal without delay to
bring the hostages home.”
The news led to the chart showing the S&P 500 collapsing
around 1pm.
Fed speak causing market weakness has been a frequent
occurrence recently. In the past, markets have recovered the next day, either
after the Fed back-tracked or cooler heads simply decided – it doesn’t matter. The
economy is doing well – it doesn’t matter.
Today was a was a statistically-significant, down-day.
That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. Bottoms often
occur on statistically-significant, down-days, so today could be the end of a
short pullback. Unfortunately, all statistically-significant, down-days are not
bottoms so we can’t be certain that weakness is over.
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Indicators moved to the bear side, but not by much. Today
there are 12 bear-signs and 10-Bull - close
to neutral. Let’s see if tomorrow will bring further weakness or a rebound –
I’m guessing rebound, but we’ll see.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VOLUME & VIX are neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I am bullish longer-term, but Neutral for now. We’ll have
to see what the markets do next. I’ll be a seller of leveraged positions if
weakness continues.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I skipped my rules on Intel
and it has been a disappointment. Now Intel reported disappointing earnings
on its foundry business. That’s the
business they are building to manufacture chips for other customers. Intel had never previously reported earnings
for this separate unit.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting
continuation of bullish market action.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
