Wednesday, April 17, 2024

Crude Inventory ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“The Biden Administration sought to block government funding for school shooting courses, such as hunting and archery, but the House voted against it this week by a landslide. The Protecting Hunting Heritage and Education Act was passed in a 424-1 vote after it was discovered this summer that the Department of Education was restricting the funding for hunting and archery teaching in schools.” Story at...
More Than 200 Democrats Join Republicans To Deliver Crushing Blow To Biden (msn.com)
My cmt:  Congress should do this more often to stop the Executive Branch and administrative agencies from running the country thru “Rule Making.”
 
CRUDE INVENTORY (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 460.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.6% to 5022.
-VIX declined about 1% to 18.21. (The Options Players seem to think the pullback is ending.)
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.589%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
 
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
Salesforce was down over 7% Monday. News follows: “Salesforce (CRM) is reportedly in advanced talks to acquire data management software company Informatica (INFA), according to a Wall Street Journal report. The potential acquisition would allow Salesforce to boost its data integration and management capabilities by tapping into Informatica's product suite.” – Yahoo Finance.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index .)
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears) remained 18 bear-signs and 6-Bull (the rest are neutral).
 

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Stephen Weiss, Founder and Managing Partner, Short Hills Capital Partners, is a CNBC regular.  He was on CNBC’s Halftime Report today. Mr. Weiss took his stock holding down to 20% in his portfolio.  He says the Fed rate hikes, “higher-for-longer,” will take the economy down and that he wouldn’t buy this weakness. Weiss said, “Every time rates have been restrictive, GDP has gone down markedly.”
 
First, 20% is an extremely conservative position indicating extreme fear. I’ve always used a value of 30% invested as my most conservative stock holding; if there was a market crash that took the stock market down 50% I would only lose 15%.
 
Mr. Weiss’s comments are not looking for a short-term drop since he is citing the economy as his reason for cutting stock holdings.  Interesting, but the economy is currently great. The unemployment rate is now 3.8%, below the level of 4% that business schools used to teach as the lowest possible unemployment. The latest Services PMI was down slightly, but still in expansion.  Manufacturing PMI was higher month-over-month and year-over-year. The economy doesn’t seem to be in trouble. For the time being, I’m not worried.
 
Technically, a pullback after the run we have seen is perfectly normal.  At the all-time highs just 3-weeks ago, 13% of issues on the NYSE made new all-time highs.  This is a solid number that in the past has suggested that if there were to be a correction, it would be less than a 10% drop.
 
My guess is that we will not see that big a pullback. Further, today looks like a bottom; both Bollinger Bands and RSI are oversold.  When that happens, we usually see a bottom. It would have been nice to see a lot more bottom indicators, but Mr. Market didn’t cooperate. I did notice that unchanged volume was very high, Wednesday. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning points. The trend has been down so I would interpret this signal as predicting a turn up. Still, “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my indicators because it is often wrong.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved to HOLD: PRICE, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
It looks like the pullback may be over or at least nearly over. Let’s see if other investors agree – I’ll watch the market action tomorrow.  If there is a decent up-day, I’ll add to stock holdings.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL.
(My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 
...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.