Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
I thought these two guys looked alike, but apparently, I
wasn’t the only one who saw a resemblance.
See President Joe (Walter) Biden at...
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=900068311158036
SANCTIONS ON ALASKA (WSJ)
“Alaska Sen. Dan Sullivan likes to quip that
the Biden Administration has imposed more sanctions on Alaska than he has on
Iran. He has a point... The Interior Department blocked new oil and gas leasing
on 13.3 million acres in Alaska’s National Petroleum Reserve. Congress
expressly set aside the region in 1923 for oil and gas development... President
Biden issued a statement saying he is honoring the “culture, history, and
enduring wisdom of Alaska Natives.” That’s also false. His restrictions are
opposed by local indigenous leaders.
Interior on Friday also denied a permit for a 211-mile
road necessary to develop the Ambler Mining District, which is one of the
world’s richest deposits of copper, cobalt, gallium, germanium and other
critical minerals... The Administration is heavily subsidizing chip-making
factories, supposedly to bolster national security and U.S. manufacturing. Yet
now Mr. Biden is effectively shutting down one of the country’s biggest
critical mineral deposits that would do both... If Alaska were a dictatorship
hostile to U.S. interests, it would get better treatment. Alas, it’s merely a
U.S. state that doesn’t vote for Joe Biden.” – WSJ
Editorial Saff from...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-sanctions-alaska-oil-and-gas-dan-sullivan-mary-sattler-peltola-2fcc1a3e
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 5011.
-VIX fell about 9% to 16.94.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.611%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD- Sold 4/8/2024
UWM – Sold 4/8/2024.
INTC – Sold 4/8/2024.
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows). I don’t want to pay taxes on this gain, so I am holding this position.
CRM – Added 1/22/2024
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500. This is a large position
in my tax-deferred, retirement account betting on Smaller Caps. (This position
captures smaller cap and micro-cap stocks that are not included in the Dow
Jones US Total Stock Market Index.)
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, the 50-indicator spread (Bulls minus Bears) slipped
more to the Bear side 16 bear-signs and 6-Bull (the rest are neutral).
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The 10-dMA of 50 Indicators was slightly higher on
Friday, but that doesn’t show up on today’s chart. Some of the final data comes in after I
publish the blog so this chart is slightly different than Friday’s chart. Today’s
chart is the updated version. The 10dMA of Indicators was down a little on
Friday (more bearish) and flat Monday.
Monday’s indicators were 16-bear (unchanged from Friday)
and 6-bull (2 less than Friday). Both
Bollinger Bands and RSI switched from Bullish to Neutral so there is no bullish
improvement today.
Indicators are not indicating bottom today. The oversold “buy-signals” have been resolved
and are now neutral. When we look at a chart, we note that the S&P 500 bounced
up from near its 100-dMA and that was a support-point that we thought might put
an end to the downturn.
All we can really say is that Friday might have been the end
of this pullback. I’ll feel better when
we see the indicators improve significantly. That has not occurred yet.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator improved
to HOLD: VIX, PRICE & SENTIMENT are neutral; VOLUME is bearish.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It
can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
It still seems like this pullback is winding down, but I can’t
say that it is over until I see the indicators improve.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a fully-invested position for a retiree.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October.
